I added the highlights in yellow and the dashed red line.
私はもとのチャートに黄色と赤点線で強調した。
The New York Fed Recession Model is based on yield curve inversions between the 10-year Treasury Note and the 3-Month Treasury Bill.
the New York FED 景気後退モデルは米国債１０Y3Mの金利スプレッド反転に基づいている。
The model uses monthly averages.
このモデルは毎月の平均値を採用している。
Smoothed Recession Odds
平滑化された景気後退可能性
I do not know the makeup of the smoothed recession chart but it is
clearly useless. The implied odds hover around zero, and are frequently
under 20% even in the middle of recession.
The GDP-based recession model is hugely lagging. The current estimate
is 2.4%. This model will not spike until there is at least one quarter
of negative or near-zero GDP.
With regard to the short-term rate, earlier research suggests that
the three-month Treasury rate, when used in conjunction with the
ten-year Treasury rate, provides a reasonable combination of accuracy
and robustness in predicting U.S. recessions over long periods.
Maximum accuracy and predictive power are obtained with the secondary
market three-month rate expressed on a bond-equivalent basis, rather
than the constant maturity rate, which is interpolated from the daily
yield curve for Treasury securities.
Spreads based on any of the rates mentioned are highly correlated
with one another and may be used to predict recessions. Note, however,
that the spreads may turn negative—that is, the yield curve may
invert—at different points and with different frequencies.
Our preferred combination of Treasury rates proves very successful in
predicting the recessions of recent decades. The monthly average spread
between the ten-year constant maturity rate and the three-month
secondary market rate on a bond equivalent basis has turned negative
before each recession in the period from January 1968 to July 2006
(Chart1). If we convert this spread into a probability of recession
twelve months ahead using the probit model described earlier (estimated
with Treasury data from January 1959 to December 2005), we can match the
probabilities with the recessions (Chart 2). The chart shows that the
estimated probability of recession exceeded 30 percent in the case of
each recession and ranged as high as 98 percent in the 1981-82
recession.
The article mentions "The ten-year minus two-year spread tends to
turn negative earlier and more frequently than the ten-year minus
three-month spread, which is usually larger."
こういう記事もある「１０Y2Yのほうが１０Y3Mよりももっと早期に反転し頻度も多い」。
That is certainly not the case today.
現在の状況はこれには当てはまらない。
The 2-year yield is 1.882 whereas the 10-year yield is 2.041.
２年ものの金利は１．８８２であり１０年ものの金利は２．０４１だ。
Chalk this up to QE, Fed manipulation, taper tantrums, and hedge funds front-running expected rate cut moves. この手法で、QEもFED市場操作、テーパータンタラム、そしてヘッジファンドの金利カット先行予想もすべてうまく取り込めている。
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
