It's
a bloodbath. No matter where you look, global manufacturing surveys are
signaling growth is over (and in most cases, outright contraction is
upon us). JPMorgan's Global Manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level for over six-and-a-half years and posted back-to-back sub-50.0 readings for the first time since the second half of 2012.
もう血の海だ。皆さんの見立てはどうあれ、世界製造業調査によると成長時期は過ぎ去った（そして多くの場合、全くの収斂が起きている）。JPMorgan's Global Manufacturing PMIが６．５年ぶりの低位になった、連続二期５０．０を切っており、これは２０１２年後半以降はじめてのことだ。
June data signalled a mild decrease in global manufacturing
employment for the second month running (but every sub-index declined in
June).
Of the 30 nations for which a June PMI reading was available, the majority (18) signalled contraction. China,
Japan, Germany, the UK, Taiwan, South Korea, Italy and Russia were
among those countries experiencing downturns. The US, India, Brazil and
Australia were some of the larger industrial nations to register an
expansion.
“The global manufacturing sector downshifted again at the end of the second quarter. The
PMI surveys signalled that output stopped growing, as inflows of new
business shrank at the fastest pace since September 2012. This impacted
hiring and business optimism, with the latter at a series-record low. Conditions will need to stage a marked recovery if manufacturing is to revive later in the year.”
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう この長文記事をRay Dalioが発表し、ゴールドは＄１４００から＄１４２０へと急騰しました。GLD保持高に変化はないのでたぶん先物ポジションが進んでいます。 Ray Dalio Warns A "New Paradigm" Is Coming: "Buy Gold, Sell Stocks" by Tyler Durden Wed, 07/17/2019 - 14:44 Authored by Ray Dalio via LinkedIn, One of my investment principles is: 私の投資原則はこういうものだ： Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops. 現在のパラダイムを認識し、それがどの程度持続可能かどうか判断する、そしてパラダイムシフトがどのように起きるか、そしてその着地点を思い描く。 Over my roughly 50 years of being a global macro investor, I have observed there to be relatively long of periods (about 10 years) in which the markets and market relationships operate in a certain way (which I call “paradig...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
How Are Gold And Money Supply Related? by Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2020 - 13:00 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, M2 Money Supply is surging. Will gold follow? M2マネーサプライが急増している。ゴールドはこれを追従するだろうか？ Let's investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US. よく言われるM2（米国のマネーサプライ指標）とゴールドの関係について調べてみよう。 "There’s a clear correlation between the annual growth rate in M2 money supply and the price of the yellow metal. " 「M2の年率増加速度とゴールド価格の間には明らかな相関がある。」 Clear Correlation? 明らかな相関？ The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let's investigate the above idea in other time frames. このツイートの主張は私が示す最初のチャートが示すものとは異なる。というわけでこのtweetの主張を別の時間フレームで見てみよう。 Gold vs Rate of Change in M2 Money Supply ゴールド vs M2マネーサプライの変化率 If we look at longer time frames, the rate of increase in M2 theory falls flat on its face....
