Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, In the past year, the BLS says the number of jobs rose by 2.62 million. Employment rose by 1.429 million. 昨年、BLS労働統計局によるとjobs 雇用 が２．６２M増えた。Employment 就労の増加は１．４２９Mだった。
The discrepancy between the increase in jobs and the increase in employment is 1,191,000. On average, over the past year, that's a discrepancy of 99,250 every month, in favor of jobs. jobs増加とemployment増加の間の乖離は１，１９１，０００だ。昨年の場合、平均して毎月９９．２５０の乖離がある、jobsのほうが改善が良好だ。
Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey
Household Survey 家計調査 vs. Payroll Survey 機関調査
The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the
headline jobs number, generally released the first Friday of every
month. It is based on employer reporting.
Payroll survey(機関調査とも言われる）は毎月第一金曜に jobs number として開示される。この数字は雇用主の従業員名簿調査報告に基づいている。
The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures unemployment and many other factors.
家計調査はBLSが電話で行う。この電話調査では失業やその他多くの調査を行う。
Numbers in Perspective
数字をどうみるか
In the household survey, if you work as little as 1 hour a week, even selling trinkets on eBay, you are considered employed.
If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not
considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.
Searching want-ads or looking online for jobs does not count. You need
to submit a resume or talk to a prospective employer or agency.
In the payroll survey, three part-time jobs count as three jobs. The
BLS attempts to factor this in, but they do not weed out duplicate
Social Security numbers. The potential for double-counting jobs in the
payroll survey is large.
These distortions and discrepancies artificially lower the
unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and
artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month.
Over time, the numbers move in sync. There is no clear pattern around
recessions. In many years the levels converge before a recession, but
ahead of the great recession the numbers diverged.
長期に渡ってみると、これら２つの数字の変動は同期している。景気後退期近傍で明らかなパターンがあるわけではない。景気後退前には何年かかけてこの数字が収束する傾向にある、しかしながらあの the great recession に向けては２つの数字が乖離に向かっていた。
Nonfarm Payrolls vs Employment Detail
非農業雇用統計 vs 就労数の詳細
In December of 2009 the difference between payrolls and employment was 8.21 million. This month, the difference is 5.56 million. ２００９年１２月時点で、雇用統計と就労数の乖離は８．２１Mだった。今月時点でこの乖離は５．５６Mだ。
Since the lows in December of 2009, the BLS tells us employment rose
by 18,632,000. The number of jobs rose by 21,291,000. That's a
difference of 2,659,000.
In the past year alone, the difference between jobs and employment is
a whopping 1,191,000. That's a discrepancy of 99,250 every month, in
favor of jobs.
I strongly suggest double-counting of jobs by the BLS when people take extra part-time jobs or shift jobs. 私は強くこう示唆する、人々がパートタイムの仕事を追加したり転職したとき、BLS調査のjobsが二重計上されている。 For a closer look at today's jobs report please see Jobs +263,000 vs. Employment -103,000: Unemployment Rate 3.6% Lowest Since 1969. 今日、第一金曜の雇用統計をよく理解するために、これを確認するが良い、Jobs +263,000 vs 就労数 -103,000: 失業率３．６％ １９６９年以来の最低値。
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton February 7, 2020 2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting. While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact. Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September. And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher. When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners. As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity. For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult. ...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 Gold Stocks Remain Cheap Adam Hamilton December 20, 2019 2800 Words The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a lackluster few months. That’s a disheartening contrast to their powerful summer upleg on gold’s bull-market breakout. While this healthy gold-stock correction likely isn’t over yet, the gold miners remain very undervalued relative to the metal they produce. That means they still have massive upside left in this secular gold bull. Sentiment just needs rebalancing before its next upleg. In recent months I’ve written a lot about gold’s correction, which is naturally driving a parallel one in the gold miners’ stocks. I’ve explained why speculators’ positioning in gold futures, gold’s dominant primary short-term driver, remains bearish with potential selling vastly outweighing likely buying. I’ve shown how shallow ...
最後の２段落だけ訳を入れておきます。 Gold-Stock Bull Breakout! Adam Hamilton April 24, 2020 2845 Words The gold miners’ stocks surged to a major bull-market breakout this week! Powering decisively above their years-old secular resistance is a hugely-important technical event. It proves this gold-stock bull is alive and well, greatly improves sentiment, and puts this high-flying sector on countless more traders’ radars. New bull highs fuel self-feeding bullish psychology, as speculators and investors love chasing winners. The gold miners’ stocks are essentially leveraged plays on gold, since its price overwhelmingly drives their earnings and thus ultimately stock prices. So gold-stock bulls and bears mirror and amplify gold’s own major market cycles. Today’s secular gold bull began marching in mid-December 2015, birthed from choking despair. Gold stocks’ ...
大切な数段落だけ訳しておきます。 Silver Miners’ Q4’18 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton March 29, 2019 4073 Words The major silver miners have rallied higher on balance in recent months, enjoying a young upleg. That’s a welcome change after they suffered a miserable 2018. Times are tough for silver miners, since silver’s prices have languished near extreme lows relative to gold. That has forced many traditional silver miners to increasingly diversify into gold. The major silver miners’ recently-released Q4’18 results illuminate their struggles. Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surr...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきました。 Fed’s Risky QE4 Stock Ramp Adam Hamilton January 31, 2020 3567 Words The US stock markets dramatically surged mostly in a straight line since mid-October. This extraordinary rally started when the Federal Reserve announced it would resume expanding its balance sheet for the first time in years. The deluge of new liquidity from that quantitative-easing bond buying has again acted like rocket fuel for stock markets. After shooting vertically they are in real trouble when the Fed pulls back. In early October the flagship US S&P 500 stock index (SPX) slumped to 2888. That was a mild 4.6% pullback from late July’s latest record high. The SPX was still having a great year though, up 15.2% year-to-date at that point thanks to extreme Fed easing . After the SPX had plunged 19.8% mostly in Q4’18 in a severe near-bear cor...
