Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, In the past year, the BLS says the number of jobs rose by 2.62 million. Employment rose by 1.429 million. 昨年、BLS労働統計局によるとjobs 雇用 が2.62M増えた。Employment 就労の増加は1.429Mだった。
The discrepancy between the increase in jobs and the increase in employment is 1,191,000. On average, over the past year, that's a discrepancy of 99,250 every month, in favor of jobs. jobs増加とemployment増加の間の乖離は1,191,000だ。昨年の場合、平均して毎月99.250の乖離がある、jobsのほうが改善が良好だ。
Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey
Household Survey 家計調査 vs. Payroll Survey 機関調査
The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the
headline jobs number, generally released the first Friday of every
month. It is based on employer reporting.
Payroll survey(機関調査とも言われる)は毎月第一金曜に jobs number として開示される。この数字は雇用主の従業員名簿調査報告に基づいている。
The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures unemployment and many other factors.
家計調査はBLSが電話で行う。この電話調査では失業やその他多くの調査を行う。
Numbers in Perspective
数字をどうみるか
In the household survey, if you work as little as 1 hour a week, even selling trinkets on eBay, you are considered employed.
If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not
considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.
Searching want-ads or looking online for jobs does not count. You need
to submit a resume or talk to a prospective employer or agency.
In the payroll survey, three part-time jobs count as three jobs. The
BLS attempts to factor this in, but they do not weed out duplicate
Social Security numbers. The potential for double-counting jobs in the
payroll survey is large.
These distortions and discrepancies artificially lower the
unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and
artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month.
Over time, the numbers move in sync. There is no clear pattern around
recessions. In many years the levels converge before a recession, but
ahead of the great recession the numbers diverged.
長期に渡ってみると、これら2つの数字の変動は同期している。景気後退期近傍で明らかなパターンがあるわけではない。景気後退前には何年かかけてこの数字が収束する傾向にある、しかしながらあの the great recession に向けては2つの数字が乖離に向かっていた。
Nonfarm Payrolls vs Employment Detail
非農業雇用統計 vs 就労数の詳細
In December of 2009 the difference between payrolls and employment was 8.21 million. This month, the difference is 5.56 million. 2009年12月時点で、雇用統計と就労数の乖離は8.21Mだった。今月時点でこの乖離は5.56Mだ。
Since the lows in December of 2009, the BLS tells us employment rose
by 18,632,000. The number of jobs rose by 21,291,000. That's a
difference of 2,659,000.
In the past year alone, the difference between jobs and employment is
a whopping 1,191,000. That's a discrepancy of 99,250 every month, in
favor of jobs.
I strongly suggest double-counting of jobs by the BLS when people take extra part-time jobs or shift jobs. 私は強くこう示唆する、人々がパートタイムの仕事を追加したり転職したとき、BLS調査のjobsが二重計上されている。 For a closer look at today's jobs report please see Jobs +263,000 vs. Employment -103,000: Unemployment Rate 3.6% Lowest Since 1969. 今日、第一金曜の雇用統計をよく理解するために、これを確認するが良い、Jobs +263,000 vs 就労数 -103,000: 失業率3.6% 1969年以来の最低値。
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう この長文記事をRay Dalioが発表し、ゴールドは$1400から$1420へと急騰しました。GLD保持高に変化はないのでたぶん先物ポジションが進んでいます。 Ray Dalio Warns A "New Paradigm" Is Coming: "Buy Gold, Sell Stocks" by Tyler Durden Wed, 07/17/2019 - 14:44 Authored by Ray Dalio via LinkedIn, One of my investment principles is: 私の投資原則はこういうものだ: Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops. 現在のパラダイムを認識し、それがどの程度持続可能かどうか判断する、そしてパラダイムシフトがどのように起きるか、そしてその着地点を思い描く。 Over my roughly 50 years of being a global macro investor, I have observed there to be relatively long of periods (about 10 years) in which the markets and market relationships operate in a certain way (which I call “paradig...
How Are Gold And Money Supply Related? by Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2020 - 13:00 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, M2 Money Supply is surging. Will gold follow? M2マネーサプライが急増している。ゴールドはこれを追従するだろうか? Let's investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US. よく言われるM2(米国のマネーサプライ指標)とゴールドの関係について調べてみよう。 "There’s a clear correlation between the annual growth rate in M2 money supply and the price of the yellow metal. " 「M2の年率増加速度とゴールド価格の間には明らかな相関がある。」 Clear Correlation? 明らかな相関? The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let's investigate the above idea in other time frames. このツイートの主張は私が示す最初のチャートが示すものとは異なる。というわけでこのtweetの主張を別の時間フレームで見てみよう。 Gold vs Rate of Change in M2 Money Supply ゴールド vs M2マネーサプライの変化率 If we look at longer time frames, the rate of increase in M2 theory falls flat on its face....
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ2週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...