This gold mania will be riding the wave of an incredibly powerful trend… the re-monetization of gold.
今回のゴールド熱狂はとんでもなく力強いトレンドになるだろう・・・再度のゴールドの貨幣化だ。
The last time the international monetary system experienced a paradigm shift of this magnitude was in 1971. 今回ほどの規模で金融システムにパラダイムシフトが起きたのは１９７１年以来のことだ。 Then, the dollar price of gold skyrocketed over 2,300%. あのとき以降でゴールドはなんと２，３００％も上昇している。
It shot from $35 per ounce to a high of $850 in 1980. Gold mining stocks did even better.
当初＄３５だったのが１９８０年には＄８５０まで上昇した。金鉱株はもっとすごかった。
So let’s get right into it, starting with the first four catalysts that will send gold prices higher…
ではその様子を見てみよう、まずはゴールドを上昇させる４つのきっかけからだ・・・
No. 1: Basel III Moves Gold Closer to Officially Being Money Again
バーゼルIIIがゴールドを再度公式に通貨としようとしている
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is located in Basel,
Switzerland. It’s often referred to as “the bank of central banks.” Its
members consist of 60 central banks from the world’s largest economies.
On April 1, 2019, Basel III went into effect around the world.
２０１９年４月１日に、Basel IIIが世界で施行された。
Buried among what was mostly confusing jargon was something of huge significance for gold:
この規約自体は難しい専門用語でいっぱいだが、とても大切なのはゴールドに関するものだ：
A 0% risk weight will apply to (i) cash owned and held at the bank or
in transit; and (ii) gold bullion held at the bank or held in another
bank on an allocated basis, to the extent the gold bullion assets are
backed by gold bullion liabilities.
Banks can now consider physical gold they hold, in certain
circumstances, as a 0% risk asset. Previously, gold was considered
riskier and most of the time could not be classified in this way. Basel
III rules are making gold more attractive.
いまや銀行は自ら保有する金塊を、一定の環境下で、ゼロリスク資産とみなして良い。これまでは、ゴールドはリスク資産とみなされていた、今回のようにゼロリスクとみなされることは殆どなかった。Basell III 規約はゴールドをより魅力的なものにした。
Central bankers and mainstream economists have ridiculed gold for going on 50 years now.
中央銀行や主要エコノミストはもう５０年もゴールドを嘲笑ってきた。
They’ve tried to downplay its role in favor of fiat currencies like
the U.S. dollar. They’ve tried to trick people into believing it isn’t
important.
The fact is gold is real money… a form of money that is far superior
to rapidly depreciating paper currencies. This is why central bankers
don’t want to acknowledge how important it is.
Basel III is giving gold more official recognition in the
international financial system. It represents a step towards the
re-monetization of gold… and the recognition of this powerful trend in
motion.
No. 2: Central Banks Are Buying Record Amounts of Gold
中央銀行は記録的な量でゴールドを買い続けている
Countries are treating gold as money for the first time in generations…
数世代ぶりに各国はゴールドをマネーとして取り扱い始めた・・・・
In 2010, something remarkable happened. Central banks changed from
being net sellers of gold to net buyers of gold. Remember, central banks
are by far the biggest actors in the global gold market.
The World Gold Council reports that in 2018, central banks bought a
record 651 tonnes of gold. This is the highest level of net purchases
since 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window. And it’s a 75% increase
from 2017.
Last year, Russia notably dumped nearly $100 billion worth of U.S.
Treasuries, and, according to the World Gold Council, replaced much of
it with gold.
If this trend continues, and I expect that it will, Russia will soon become the third-largest gold holder in the world.
A major reason for Russia’s gold purchases is to reduce its reliance
on the U.S. dollar and exposure to U.S. financial sanctions.
ロシアがゴールドを購入する主要因は米ドルへの依存度を減らし米国金融制裁の効果を緩和させることだ。
It is providing a template for others to do the same, using gold as money.
これは他国も似たようなもので、ゴールドをマネーとみなしている。
For example, in 2016, news broke that Turkey and Iran were engaged in
a “gas for gold” plan. Iran is under U.S. sanctions. Through the plan,
Turkey can pay for gas imported from Iran with gold.
Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and others are proving they don’t need the
U.S. dollar. They are conducting business and settling trade with gold
shipments, which aren’t under the control of the U.S. government.
This is how gold will benefit from the U.S. government using the dollar as a financial weapon.
ドルを金融武器として利用する米国政府から逃れるために如何にゴールドが重要かが解るだろう。
No. 3: Oil for Gold – China’s Golden Alternative
原油決済にゴールドーー中国の最良代替手法 Golden Altenative
In 2017, when tensions with North Korea were rising, Trump’s Treasury
secretary threatened to kick China out of the U.S. dollar system if it
didn’t crack down on North Korea.
Last year, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange launched a
crude oil futures contract denominated in Chinese yuan. For the first
time in the post-World War II era, it will allow for large oil
transactions outside of the U.S. dollar.
Of course, most oil producers don’t want a large reserve of yuan.
昨年のことだが、Shanghai International Energy Exhcange が人民元建で原油先物取引を始めた。第二次世界大戦後でみると、米ドル以外での巨額原油取引が行われるのははじめてのことだ。当然のことながら、ほとんどの産油国は人民元受け取りを望んではいない。
That’s why China has explicitly linked the crude futures contract
with the ability to convert yuan into physical gold – without touching
the Chinese government’s official reserves – through gold exchanges in
Shanghai and Hong Kong. (Shanghai is already the world’s largest
physical gold market.)
Bottom line, China’s Golden Alternative will allow oil producers to
sell oil for gold and completely bypass any restrictions, regulations,
or sanctions of the U.S. financial system.
CNBC estimates that the amount of redirected oil money will
eventually hit $600-$800 billion. Much of this will flow into the gold
market, which itself is only $170 billion.
Right now, oil is hovering around $60 per barrel. That means China is spending around $588 million per day to import oil.
今の所、原油価格は＄６０／バレル程度だ。ということは中国は毎日＄５８８Mの原油を輸入している。
Gold is currently priced around $1,330 an ounce.
今の所ゴールドは＄１，３３０／オンスで取引されている。
That means every day, China is importing oil worth over 442,105 ounces of gold.
If we’re conservative and assume that just half of Chinese
imports will be purchased in gold soon, it translates into increased
demand of more than 80 million ounces per year – or more than 70% of
gold’s annual production.
This shift hasn’t been priced into the gold price. When it happens,
the increased demand for gold from China’s Golden Alternative is going
to shock the gold market.
The bottom line is, China’s Golden Alternative is a big step towards gold’s re-monetization.
要約すると、中国のGolden Alternativeはゴールドの再貨幣化への大きな一歩となる。
No. 4: The Fed’s Dramatic Capitulation
FEDの劇的な降伏
In the wake of the 2008 crash, the Federal Reserve instituted several
emergency measures. The chairman at the time, Bernanke, promised
Congress they would be temporary.
That newly created money was used to buy mainly government bonds, which sat on the Fed’s bloated balance sheet.
この新規創生マネーは主に国債買取で作り出された、これはFEDのバランスシートを膨れ上がらせた。
The Fed also brought interest rates to the lowest levels in U.S.
history. The Fed artificially brought rates down to 0% and kept them
there for over six years.
Remember, interest rates are simply the price of borrowing money
(debt). They have an enormous impact on banks, the real estate market,
and the auto industry, among others.
In 2016, the Fed began its attempt to “normalize” its monetary policy
by raising interest rates and reducing the size of its balance sheet to
more historically normal levels. By doing so, the Fed was reversing the
emergency measures put in place after the 2008 crisis.
It was the worst December in stock market history, except for December 1931, which was during the Great Depression.
米国株式市場最悪の１２月となった、例外は１９３１年の１２月だけだ、これは大恐慌の最中のものだった。
That spooked the Fed into its most abrupt change in monetary policy in recent history.
これがFEDを驚かせ、近代史の中ではもっとも急激な金融政策転換を引き起こした。
Instead of normalizing monetary policy and removing the so-called
“temporary” and “emergency” measures in place since 2008 – as it had
long planned to do – the Fed capitulated.
Earlier this year, the Fed announced it would not raise interest rates in 2019.
The Fed also announced it would phase out its balance sheet reduction program in the fall.
Previously, the Fed was slowly winding down its balance sheet by
about $30 billion a month. At such a snail’s pace, it would have taken
the Fed over 10 years to drain its balance sheet back to its pre-crisis
normal level.
If the Fed couldn’t normalize interest rates when the debt was $22
trillion, how is it ever going to raise rates when the debt is $30
trillion or higher?
The answer is it can’t and won’t. It’s impossible for the U.S.
government to normalize interest rates with an abnormal amount of debt.
The Fed is trapped.
After nearly six years of 0% interest rates, the U.S. economy is
hooked on the heroin of easy money. It can’t even tolerate a modest
reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet and 2.5% interest rates, still far
below historical averages.
In other words, this monetary tightening cycle is over. The next move
is a return to QE and 0%, and perhaps negative, interest rates. These
moves would, of course, weaken the dollar and be good for gold.
By flipping from tightening to signaling future easing, the Fed has turned a major headwind for the gold market into a tailwind. 引き締めから転換し将来の緩和シグナルを発することで、ゴールド市場にとってFEDはこれまでの向かい風から追い風になる。
Now, let's dive deeper into what’s going to trigger this revival…
では、この復活のきっかけは何なのかを深く分析してみよう・・・・
No. 5: Takeover Frenzy in the Gold Mining Industry
金鉱株産業の買収祭り
2019 is on track to be a record-breaking year for gold mergers and acquisitions (M&A).
金鉱会社のM&Aに関して２０１９は記録的な年だった。
The world’s largest mining companies are pouring billions of dollars into mergers and acquisitions.
世界最大級の鉱山会社が巨額資金をM&Aに投入した。
Three blockbuster deals contributed to this result:
３つの大きな取引がこの結果を引き起こした：
Newmont Mining completed a $10 billion takeover of Goldcorp on April 18.
Newmont Miningが＄１０Bを投じて４月１８日にGoldcorpを買収した。
Barrick Gold acquired Randgold Resources in a $6 billion transaction that closed on January 1.
Barrick Gold は１月１日にRandgold Resourcesを＄６Bで吸収した。
Barrick Gold has also announced a joint venture with Newmont after a
hostile bid from Barrick failed. (Barrick and Newmont are the top two
gold-producing companies in the world.) The joint venture in Nevada will
create the largest gold-producing complex in the world.
But Trump’s affinity for gold goes much deeper. He once said:
しかしトランプがゴールドを好む理由にはもっと深いものだがある。彼はかつてこう言った：
The legacy of gold as a precious commodity has transcended to become a
viable currency and an accepted universal monetary standard. Central
Banks around the world are holding gold as a reserve asset.
For example, in 2012, when Cain was running for president, he wrote an editorial for The Wall Street Journal titled “We Need a Dollar as Good as Gold.” He wrote:
Gold is kryptonite to big-spending politicians. It is to the moochers
and looters in government what sunlight and garlic are to vampires.
たとえば、２０１２年に、投じCainは会社を経営していた、彼はWall Street Journalに記事を寄稿した「我々はゴールドと等価なドルが必要だ」。彼はこう書いた：ゴールドは放漫財政を行う政治家に対する（スーパーマンの）クリプトナイトだ。政府内部にいるたかり屋や浪費家に向けられるべきものだ、吸血鬼に対する日光やニンニクのようなものだ。
Cain and Moore have since withdrawn their nominations, but one
replacement is widely suspected to be Judy Shelton, who is also an
advocate of the gold standard.
Regardless, the fact that Trump nominated them in the first place shows he is willing to act on his pro-gold instincts.
トランプがまず最初に指名した人たちを見ると、彼は本能的にゴールドを好んでいる。
Here’s the bottom line…
要約するとこういうことだ・・・・・
Having a U.S. president who favors gold and is looking to stack the
Fed with pro-gold people is unprecedented in recent history. It’s a
positive development for gold – and the trend of gold’s re-monetization.
But gold is going to get a boost, no matter which party is in power…
しかしどちらの政党が力を持とうともゴールドは強くなりつつある・・・・
No. 7: Socialism Is on the Rise
社会主義が勢力を持ちつつある
Socialism is on the rise in the U.S. And it’s about to be entrenched in U.S. politics.
A recent poll from the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, a
D.C.-based nonprofit, showed that one in two millennials now favors
socialism and communism over capitalism.
米国では社会主義が台頭している。その考えが米国政策に染みつこうとしている。Victims of Communism Memorial Foundationの最近の調査によると、若年層Millennials の二人に一人は社会主義や共産主義を好んでいる、資本主義よりもだ。
It’s why Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), and other socialists are skyrocketing in
popularity.
Millennials are now the largest demographic group in America. And
sometime this year, they are expected to surpass baby boomers as the
nation’s largest living adult generation.
In other words, demographics alone guarantee more socialism ahead.
And as we’ve seen again and again, when asked, “How are you going to pay
for this?” socialists have the same answer: “Tax the rich!”
Simple arithmetic shows that even if the rich were taxed to the
limit, it wouldn’t put a dent in the bills for the socialists’
government programs. But to this, the socialists respond: “We’ll just
print money!”
MMT is the same economic quackery that’s brought misery to Argentina,
Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and countless other places. Now, left-leaning U.S.
economists, politicians, and policy wonks are taking it seriously, too.
They see it as a sort of “QE for the people.”
But this time, it won’t be the Argentine peso or the Venezuelan
bolívar that is debased. It will be the U.S. dollar… the world’s premier
reserve currency.
Gold is the primary competitor for the U.S. dollar’s top role. And as
the American socialists inflate the value of the dollar away, it will
make gold all that more attractive.
That’s why this trend will be a big positive for the re-monetization of gold.
だからこそこのトレンドはゴールドの再貨幣化にとって大きなプラス要因だ。
No. 8: Gold-Backed Cryptos – A Monetary Revolution
ゴールド担保暗号通貨ーー金融革命
The last catalyst for gold is cryptocurrencies backed by gold.
最近のゴールドを巡る話題はゴールド担保暗号通貨だ。
There are dozens of gold-backed cryptos sprouting up.
ゴールド担保暗号通貨のスタートアップ企業がたくさんある。
Peter Grosskopf, the CEO of Sprott, recently called gold-backed
cryptocurrencies “the most important thing to happen to the gold market
in the last several decades.”
Peter Grosskopf、彼はSprottのCEOだ、最近彼はゴールド担保暗号通貨をこう評価している「ここ何十年かでゴールド市場に起きた最重要事項だ」と。
Soon after, Sprott launched a gold-backed crypto it developed with its partners.
When Sprott – a leader in the natural resources industry – makes a
big move into the gold-backed crypto space, it’s a definitive sign of
where things are headed.
Gold-backed cryptos combine the best attributes of gold and cryptos. I
can’t think of two other asset classes that have as many synergies. In
other words, the whole is worth much more than the sum of the parts.
With cryptos redeemable for gold, we can now instantly send anyone
anywhere in the world small or large amounts of gold – reliably and
without interference. It’s nothing short of a monetary revolution.
Gold-backed cryptos are going to make using gold as money even more
convenient for the average person and business. Anyone with a cell phone
now can use gold in a way that was not possible before.
This is another big reason why I think gold is coming back as money.
これがもう一つの大きな理由だ、どうして私がこれからゴールドの再貨幣化が来ると思うかということの。
Putting It All Together…
すべてを総合的に勘案すると・・・・・
When you take a step back and look at the big picture, the implications for gold are clear:
過去を振り返り大きな俯瞰図を見ると、ゴールドの影響はとても明確だ：
Basel III moves gold toward officially being money again.
Basel IIIはゴールドを公式に再度貨幣化しようとしている。
Central banks are buying record amounts of gold.
中央銀行は記録的な量のゴールドを買っている。
Excessive U.S. sanctions have pushed countries to use gold.
米国の過剰な制裁が多くの国にゴールド利用を迫っている。
China’s “Golden Alternative” allows for large-scale, oil-for-gold trades.
中国の「Golden Alternative」で大規模に原油のゴールド決算を推し進める。
The Fed’s dramatic reversal and the return of easy money bode well for gold’s strength against the dollar.
FEDは劇的に政策転換をし金融緩和に戻った、これはドルに対してゴールドが強くなる予兆だ。
The takeover frenzy in the gold mining industry is bullish for the price of gold.
金鉱会社の買収お祭り騒ぎということはゴールド価格にとても強気なものだ。
President Trump favors returning to the gold standard and is stacking the Fed with pro-gold people.
トランプ大統領は金本位制への回帰を好んでいる、そしてFED役員にゴールドを好む人を送り込んでいる。
The Democrats’ embrace of socialism guarantees more currency debasement.
民主党が社会主義を好むということはさらなる通貨減価を保証している。
Gold-backed cryptos make owning and using gold easier than ever.
ゴールド担保暗号通貨はかつて無くゴールド利用・保有を簡便にする。
Any one of these catalysts alone would be great news for gold. これらのきっかけの一つだけでもゴールドにとっては素晴らしいいニュースだ。
But the fact they are all converging at the same time means an epic gold bull market is on the menu for 2019. And the time to get positioned is now…
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Mish: Gold Hits New Record High And There's More To Come by Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2020 - 10:10 Twitter Facebook Reddit Email Print Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Gold futures just touched $1928 taking out the Intraday high of $1923.70 in 2011. ゴールド先物が＄１９２８になり、２０１１年の日中高値＄１９２３．７０を超えた。 11-Week Run １１週連続上昇 Gold is on a huge 11-week run. The last time gold did that was at the 2011 high. ゴールドはなんと１１週連続で上昇だ。前回の新高値は２０１１年のことだった。 Is a pullback in order? A Gold COT chart says otherwise. 通常の引き戻しが待ち構えているだろうか？ ゴールドのCoTチャートを見るとそうでもなさそうだ。 Gold COT Chart ゴールドCoTチャート Understanding Futures 先物市場を読み解く In the futures world there is a short for every long. 先物市場ではどのロングにもショートが対応している。 The first horizontal box has Large Specs, Small Specs, and Commercials. This is It's Old COT reporting. この図の下部、最初の横長い箱に示すのは Large Specs、Small Specs、そしてCommercialsのポジションだ。このチャートは従来からのCoT報告スタイルだ。 The second bo
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS
現在のCPI推移をみるとFEDの言う２％目標に収まりそうにはありません。実際現在の金利政策はまだ緩和的で、政府の大判振る舞いもあり、M2はコロナ騒動以前のトレンドを大きく超えたまま漸増し始めています。大統領選挙もあり、パウエルは今後利上げはないと言明しており、利下げ期待が高まっています。 In Gold We Trust 2024（２０ページ目）では１９７０年代のインフレ推移と現在２０２４年のインフレ推移を重ね、もっと大きなインフレがこれから来そうだと示唆しています。 https://ingoldwetrust.report/in-gold-we-trust-report/?lang=en 当時は数年間でゴールド価格は７倍になりました。直近のCPIのピーク値と比べると、今回は次のピーク、今後数年、でゴールドが５倍程度になることが期待されます。 ミシガン大学の調査ではインフレがFED目標の２％に落ち着くと期待されず、最近では期待値が増え始めています。
