While
the western world (and much of the eastern) has been preoccupied with
predicting the consequences of Trump's accelerating global trade/tech
war, Beijing has had its hands full with avoiding a bank run in the
aftermath of Baoshang Bank's failure, scrambling to inject massive
amounts of liquidity last week in the form of a 250 billion yuan net
open market operation to thaw the interbank market which was on the
verge of freezing, and sent overnight funding rates spiking and bond
yields and NCD rates higher.
Unfortunately for the PBOC, Beijing is now racing against time to
prevent a widespread panic after it opened the Pandora's box when it
seized Baoshang Bank two weeks ago, the first official bank failure in a
odd replay of what happened with Bear Stearns back in 2008, when
JPMorgan was gifted the historic bank for pennies on the dollar.
PBOCにとって残念なことに、北京政府は今や、2周間前のBaoshang Bank 吸収でパンドラの箱を開いた後の混乱拡大を収束させることで手一杯だ、公式に銀行倒産を認めたことが2008年のベア・スターンズを思い起こさせる、当時JPMorgaは棚ぼたでこの伝統ある銀行を手中に納めた。
And with domino #1 down, the question turns to who is next, and will they be China's Lehman.
ドミノ#1に伴い、問題は次に起こることだ、それは中国のレーマン銀行となるだろう。
This was the question we asked last Thursday,
when we published a list of regional banks that have delayed publishing
2018 reports, the biggest red flag suggesting an upcoming bank solvency
"event."
One day later we may have gotten our answer, when the Bank of
Jinzhou, a city commercial bank in Liaoning Province, the second name
in the list above, and with some $105 billion in assets, notably bigger
than Baoshang, announced that its auditors Ernst & Young Hua Ming
LLP and Ernst & Young had resigned, not long after the bank
announced it would delay the publication of its annual reports.
その翌日に我々は答えを得たかもしれない、それはBank of Jinzhou 錦州銀行、遼寧省の商業銀行だ、この表では二番目に書かれている、資産規模は$105B、Baoshangよりもずっと大きい、この銀行の広報によると、監査法人Ernst & Young Hua Ming LLP and Ernst & Young が辞退した、当行が年次報告開示遅延を広報してからそう遅くない時期にだ。
For those confused, the delay of an annual report and the resignation of an auditor, means a bank failure is not only virtually certain but practically imminent.
As the bank - which first got in hot water in 2015 over its exposure to the scandal-ridden Hanergy Group -
writes in a filing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, E&Y was first
appointed as the auditors of the Bank at the last annual general meeting
of the Bank held on 29 May 2018 to hold office until the conclusion of
the next annual general meeting of the Bank. That never happened,
because on 31 May 2019, out of the blue, the board and its audit
committee received a letter from EY tendering their resignations as the
auditors of the Bank with immediate effect.
The reason for the resignation: the bank refused to provide E&Y
with documents to confirm the bank's clients were able to service loans,
amid indications that the use of proceeds of certain loans granted by
the Bank to its institutional customers were not consistent with the
purpose stated in their loan documents.
As a result, "after numerous discussions and as at the date of this announcement, no
consensus was reached between the Bank and EY on the Outstanding
Matters and the proposed timetable for the completion of audit." As a result, after a clear breakdown in relations with its own auditor, the
Board decided to appoint Crowe (HK) CPA Limited as the new auditors of
the Bank to fill the casual vacancy following the Resignation and to
hold the office until the conclusion of the 2018 annual general meeting
of the Bank (we are taking the under with lots of leverage as Crowe will
likewise quit in the coming weeks if not days).
And confirming that not even the bank's management believes this
"justification" will be enough to avoid a rout in the stock, the bank
reported that it has requested the trading in the H shares (which was
frozen on April 1) on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited to be
suspended until the publication of the 2018 Annual Results. For anyone
who hopes that these shares will ever be unfrozen for trading, there are
a few bridges in Brooklyn that are for sale.
The real question facing Beijing now is how quickly will Bank of
Jinzhou collapse, how will Beijing and the PBOC react, and what whether
the other banks on the list above now suffer a raging bank run, on which
will certainly not be confined just to China's small and medium banks.
当行取締役はこの出来事を「正当化」することで株価下落を回避するのに十分と考えている一方、香港証券取引所での売買は2018年次決算開示までサスペンドとされている(すでに4月1日から売買凍結となっている)。ただし株式売買再開は望み薄だ。現在北京政府が直面している疑念は、 Bank of Jinzhou 倒産までにどれだけの時間があるか、またその時如何に北京政府とPBOCが対応するかだ、そしてこの表の他の銀行も倒産となる銀行等産の嵐がおきるかどうか、どうなるかだ、さらにはそれが中小銀行にとどまるかも懸念される。
中国が債務増加していることはたしかです。ただ日本の例を日銀資金循環報告でみると家計、320兆円、民間非金融機関1,785兆円、一般政府 1,284兆円となります。合算すると3,300兆円にもなり、GDPの600%を超えています。 https://www.boj.or.jp/statistics/sj/sjexp.pdf この記事の統計と同じ考え方で数値を採用しているのかどうか気になります。 加えて、この資金循環報告に書かれている海外資産というのが内数なのか外数なのか?私にはよくわかりません。当然海外債務も結構な額になります。一度日銀資金循環 図表1を見てください。詳しい方に教えていただければ。 この中国のたどる道は昔のソ連とかMMTと同様で、自国通貨ならいくら発行しても倒産はしない、というか為政者が痛みに耐えることができず緩和を続けるというものです。でも最終的には限界点に達します。ソ連は建国から崩壊まで70年かかりました。 自由主義経済なら立ち行かなくなった企業は退場してもらうというのが減速なのですが、これがうまくゆかないわけです。 でも日本は中国のはるか先を言っているように見えます。ちょっと検索したのですが、日本の債務に関しては政府債務に言及したものばかりで、この記事のように民間、個人まで総合的に記載しているのは日銀の資金循環統計しか見つけることができませんでした。 China Continues To Pile Debt On Top Of More Debt Written by Jesse Colombo | Feb, 27, 2019 Like many countries, China attempted to rein in its debt growth over the past couple years, but ultimately gave up and is now back to piling on even more debt. Bloomberg reports – 多くの国と同様に、中国もここ2年ほど債務増加を抑えようとしてきた、しかし結局の所諦めてしまい、今や更に債務を積み上げている。ブルームバーグ記事ーー For almost two years,...
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Powell Keeps The Bond Bull Kicking Written by Lance Roberts | Mar, 21, 2019 In a widely expected outcome, the Federal Reserve announced no change to the Fed funds rate but did leave open the possibility of a rate hike next year. Also, they committed to stopping “Quantitative Tightening (or Q.T.)” by the end of September. 多くの人が予想したとおり、FEDはFFR変更をしないだけでなく来年も不明とした。さらには、QTを9月末に終えると約束した。 The key language from yesterday’s announcement was: 昨日の発表の重要な部分はこういう具合だ: “ Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market remains strong but that growth of economic activity has slowed from its solid rate in the fourth quarter . Payroll employment was little changed in February, but job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. 「1月のFOMC以来の情報を分析すると、労働市場は強いがQ4に比べると経済成長は鈍化している。2月の雇用環境にほとんど変化がなかった、ここ数ヶ月確実に雇用は増えている、そして失業率は低いままだ。 Recent indicators point to s...