While
the western world (and much of the eastern) has been preoccupied with
predicting the consequences of Trump's accelerating global trade/tech
war, Beijing has had its hands full with avoiding a bank run in the
aftermath of Baoshang Bank's failure, scrambling to inject massive
amounts of liquidity last week in the form of a 250 billion yuan net
open market operation to thaw the interbank market which was on the
verge of freezing, and sent overnight funding rates spiking and bond
yields and NCD rates higher.
Unfortunately for the PBOC, Beijing is now racing against time to
prevent a widespread panic after it opened the Pandora's box when it
seized Baoshang Bank two weeks ago, the first official bank failure in a
odd replay of what happened with Bear Stearns back in 2008, when
JPMorgan was gifted the historic bank for pennies on the dollar.
PBOCにとって残念なことに、北京政府は今や、2周間前のBaoshang Bank 吸収でパンドラの箱を開いた後の混乱拡大を収束させることで手一杯だ、公式に銀行倒産を認めたことが2008年のベア・スターンズを思い起こさせる、当時JPMorgaは棚ぼたでこの伝統ある銀行を手中に納めた。
And with domino #1 down, the question turns to who is next, and will they be China's Lehman.
ドミノ#1に伴い、問題は次に起こることだ、それは中国のレーマン銀行となるだろう。
This was the question we asked last Thursday,
when we published a list of regional banks that have delayed publishing
2018 reports, the biggest red flag suggesting an upcoming bank solvency
"event."
One day later we may have gotten our answer, when the Bank of
Jinzhou, a city commercial bank in Liaoning Province, the second name
in the list above, and with some $105 billion in assets, notably bigger
than Baoshang, announced that its auditors Ernst & Young Hua Ming
LLP and Ernst & Young had resigned, not long after the bank
announced it would delay the publication of its annual reports.
その翌日に我々は答えを得たかもしれない、それはBank of Jinzhou 錦州銀行、遼寧省の商業銀行だ、この表では二番目に書かれている、資産規模は$105B、Baoshangよりもずっと大きい、この銀行の広報によると、監査法人Ernst & Young Hua Ming LLP and Ernst & Young が辞退した、当行が年次報告開示遅延を広報してからそう遅くない時期にだ。
For those confused, the delay of an annual report and the resignation of an auditor, means a bank failure is not only virtually certain but practically imminent.
As the bank - which first got in hot water in 2015 over its exposure to the scandal-ridden Hanergy Group -
writes in a filing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, E&Y was first
appointed as the auditors of the Bank at the last annual general meeting
of the Bank held on 29 May 2018 to hold office until the conclusion of
the next annual general meeting of the Bank. That never happened,
because on 31 May 2019, out of the blue, the board and its audit
committee received a letter from EY tendering their resignations as the
auditors of the Bank with immediate effect.
The reason for the resignation: the bank refused to provide E&Y
with documents to confirm the bank's clients were able to service loans,
amid indications that the use of proceeds of certain loans granted by
the Bank to its institutional customers were not consistent with the
purpose stated in their loan documents.
As a result, "after numerous discussions and as at the date of this announcement, no
consensus was reached between the Bank and EY on the Outstanding
Matters and the proposed timetable for the completion of audit." As a result, after a clear breakdown in relations with its own auditor, the
Board decided to appoint Crowe (HK) CPA Limited as the new auditors of
the Bank to fill the casual vacancy following the Resignation and to
hold the office until the conclusion of the 2018 annual general meeting
of the Bank (we are taking the under with lots of leverage as Crowe will
likewise quit in the coming weeks if not days).
And confirming that not even the bank's management believes this
"justification" will be enough to avoid a rout in the stock, the bank
reported that it has requested the trading in the H shares (which was
frozen on April 1) on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited to be
suspended until the publication of the 2018 Annual Results. For anyone
who hopes that these shares will ever be unfrozen for trading, there are
a few bridges in Brooklyn that are for sale.
The real question facing Beijing now is how quickly will Bank of
Jinzhou collapse, how will Beijing and the PBOC react, and what whether
the other banks on the list above now suffer a raging bank run, on which
will certainly not be confined just to China's small and medium banks.
当行取締役はこの出来事を「正当化」することで株価下落を回避するのに十分と考えている一方、香港証券取引所での売買は2018年次決算開示までサスペンドとされている(すでに4月1日から売買凍結となっている)。ただし株式売買再開は望み薄だ。現在北京政府が直面している疑念は、 Bank of Jinzhou 倒産までにどれだけの時間があるか、またその時如何に北京政府とPBOCが対応するかだ、そしてこの表の他の銀行も倒産となる銀行等産の嵐がおきるかどうか、どうなるかだ、さらにはそれが中小銀行にとどまるかも懸念される。
Is The Stock Market As Confused As You Are About A Recession? Written by Lance Roberts | Apr, 1, 2019 Last week, Barron’s ran an article entitled “The Stock Market Is Just As Confused About A Potential Recession As You Are?” To wit: 先週バロンズにこういう記事が掲載された「株式市場は景気後退を予感させるほどに混乱しているだろうか?」見てみよう: “Investors have long used where we are in the economic cycle to decide which stocks to buy and sell. New research from Nomura’s Joseph Mezrich flips that on its head by showing how investors can use stock performance to help determine where we are in the cycle. Too bad the market is sending mixed messages right now.” 長らく投資家は現在景気サイクルのどこに居るかを見てこの株式を売るか買うかを判断してきた。野村證券のJoseph Mezrichの最近の研究では、これが逆さで、投資家は株式のパフォーマンスを見て今景気サイクルのどこにいるかを判断している。最悪なことに現在相場は悪化改善混在のメッセージを送っている。」 But let’s be clear here; no one wants the party to end. So, despite a struggling stock market over the last year, slowing economic growth, and a collapsing yield curve, there are s...
How Are Gold And Money Supply Related? by Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2020 - 13:00 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, M2 Money Supply is surging. Will gold follow? M2マネーサプライが急増している。ゴールドはこれを追従するだろうか? Let's investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US. よく言われるM2(米国のマネーサプライ指標)とゴールドの関係について調べてみよう。 "There’s a clear correlation between the annual growth rate in M2 money supply and the price of the yellow metal. " 「M2の年率増加速度とゴールド価格の間には明らかな相関がある。」 Clear Correlation? 明らかな相関? The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let's investigate the above idea in other time frames. このツイートの主張は私が示す最初のチャートが示すものとは異なる。というわけでこのtweetの主張を別の時間フレームで見てみよう。 Gold vs Rate of Change in M2 Money Supply ゴールド vs M2マネーサプライの変化率 If we look at longer time frames, the rate of increase in M2 theory falls flat on its face....
China Injects Gargantuan 1.1 Trillion In Liquidity This Week by Tyler Durden Wed, 01/16/2019 - 22:19 Following what Bloomberg calculated was a record net reverse repo liquidity injection on Wednesday, when the PBOC injected a whopping 560 billion yuan of liquidity into the financial system via open market operations, the Chinese central bank has done it again and in Thursday's open market operation, it sold 250BN yuan in 7 Day repos (slightly below yesterday's record 350BN), and 150BN in 28 Day repos, which net of maturities resulted in a whopping net 380BN yuan ($56.2BN) liquidity injection. ブルームバーグの算出によると水曜に記録的なリバースレポ流動性注入が行われた、PBOCがなんと公開市場操作で金融システムになんと560B人民元を注入した、中国中央銀行は再び木曜に公開市場操作を行った、250B人民元の7日決済レポを売却した(昨日の350B人民元よりも少し少ない)、そして28日決済のレポを150B人民元注入した、結果としてなんと380B人民元($56.2B)の流動性注入となる。 (訳注:なんか足し算すると辻褄が合いません、ブルーム...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Albert Edwards: This Was The Final Recessionary Shoe, And It Has Now Fallen by Tyler Durden Thu, 06/27/2019 - 12:45 Exactly three months ago, in late March, the 3 month-10 year spread inverted for the first time since 2007... ちょうど3か月前の3月遅くのことだ、3M10Yスプレッドが2007年以来初めて反転した・・・・ ... an event which sparked near-panic in the market as historically curve inversion has preceded the last 7 recessions. ・・・市場は準混乱状態になった、というのも歴史的に見てイールドカーブ反転が過去7回の景気後退の前兆となっているからだ。 However, while the inversion was certainly a memorable event, the question on everyone's lips is how do risk assets perform once the curve flattens and/or inverts. According to backtests from Goldman, since the mid-1980s, significant stock drawdowns (i.e. market crashes) began only when term slope started steepening after being inverted. ...