September Class 8 Heavy Duty Truck Orders Collapse 71%

Preliminary Class 8 order data for September is starting to trickle in and, like the data preceding it so far this year - it's ugly.

クラス８トラック発注がことしのこれまでと同様にひどい。

Class 8 orders were crushed 71% in September, reaching 12,600 units, according to Baird and Morgan Stanley.

９月にクラス８トラック発注が７１％下落し、１２，６００台となった、Baird and Morgan Stanleyのデータだ。

This follows a 79% plunge in August.

８月の７９％下落に次ぐ悪さだ。

This makes September the 11th consecutive month of YOY order declines and the 9th consecutive month of orders below 20,000.

この９月で１１か月連続でYoY発注が下落している、また９か月連続で２０，０００台を下回った。

Class 8 orders are often seen as a pulse on the U.S. economy. Morgan Stanley analyst Courtney Yakavonis wrote in a note that she expects YOY order declines to continue into the year's end. But Baird analyst David Leiker said he was gaining "increased confidence" that a bottom in declines was likely near - but that's a story we have heard from ACT Research analysts all year and orders just continue to collapse.

クラス８トラックの発注は米国経済の脈動と見られることが多い。モルガン・スタンレーのアナリストCourtney Yakavonis によるとYoY下落は年末まで続くだろうということだ。しかしBairdのアナリストDavid Leikerが言うには、底打ちが近いというーーしかしACT Researchのアナリストは年内は下落は続くという。

The blame continues to fall on the trade war.

その原因は貿易戦争だ。

"Little has changed since August with respect to the freight market and freight rates, while uncertainties surrounding trade and tariffs continue to weigh on truck buyers' psyches," said Steve Tam, ACT vice president, according to FreightWaves.

「８月以来貨物輸送にほとんど変化は見られない、しかしながら貿易と関税に関する不確実性がトラック買い手の心理にのしかかっている」とSteve Tamは言う、かれはACTの副社長だ、FreightWavesからの引用だ。

Don Ake, FTR vice president of commercial vehicles simply said: "Class 8 orders are stuck at the bottom of the cycle."

Don Ake，FTRの商用車部門副社長だ、彼が言うには：「クラス８の発注はサイクルの底にある。」

As of September, the rolling 12-month average for orders is about 214,000.
"All the orders needed for 2019 were placed months ago and fleets are now adjusting delivery dates and finalizing requirements," Ake continued.

９月には、発注の１２か月移動平均は２１４，０００だ。「２０１９年内の発注はすでに数ヶ月前に完了している、出荷時期を調整しているに過ぎない、」とAkeは加えた。

If there's one silver lining, it is that the slowdown continues to wear away at the backlog of trucks that are awaiting assembly. ACT predicts that the number of unbuilt trucks has fallen to 135,000, down from 151,000 in August.
The number of available used trucks continues to rise, leading to lower prices in that sector. Volvo trucks and Mack trucks are both taking two down weeks at their Virginia and Pennsylvania factories this quarter.

確実に言えることがあるなら、減速は続いている、組み立て待ちの在庫も減っている。ACTの予想では、組立前のトラック数は８月の１５１，０００から１３５，０００に減っている。市場の中古車は増えている、価格は下落している。この四半期で、Volvo trucksとMack trucksは共に二週連続でVirginiaとPennsylvania工場の生産を落とした。

Donald Broughton, principal and managing partner of research firm Broughton Capital, told FOX Business in September that in 1H19 nearly 640 trucking firms failed. That equates to 20,000 trucks have been pulled off the road.
In 2018, only 310 trucking companies failed, which points to an accelerating trend that could transform into a major bust cycle for the industry in 2020.

調査会社Broughton CapitalのDonald Broughtonが９月にFOX Businessに語ったところでは、２０１９H1に６４０のトラック運送会社が倒産した。ということは２０，０００台のトラックが路上から居なくなった。２０１８年の運送会社倒産は３１０件しかなかった、ということは２０２０にむけてこの産業の下落サイクルはつづくかもしれないということだ。

"This has to do with the spot market," American Trucking Associations chief economist Bob Costello told FOX Business. "Those fleets that are primarily in the spot market are facing volumes that are down nearly 50% and rates that are down nearly 20%."

「この状況はスポット市場にも間れしているはずだ、」とBob CostelloがFOX　Businessに語った、彼はAmerican Trucking Associationsの主任エコノミストだ。「これらの車両はスポット市場ボリュームで５０％近く減っている、賃料は２０％減っている。」

As previously reported, we've detailed how a freight recession continues to gain momentum through the end of summer, likely to continue through fall into 1H20.

以前の報告で、貨物不景気についてZeroHedgeは詳細に伝えた、そのモメンタムは夏の終りまで続いている、たぶん２０２０H1まで下落は続くだろう。