Proving
that higher prices aren't always better news, housing in Manhattan may
finally be catching a bid after a nearly yearlong slump in prices has
plunged far enough to finally attract buyers. Additionally, inventory
growth finally looks to be slowing down.
Manhattan home prices were thrashed again in April, falling the most since 2010
- but this time, there may be somewhat of a silver lining. The falling
prices caused buyers to "pounce", resulting in 1,193 homes under
contract during the month - more than any month since April of 2015,
according to data provided by Bloomberg and StreetEasy. Perhaps deflation is not so evil after all.
マンハッタン住宅価格が再び4月に下落した、2010年以来の大きな下落だーーしかし今回は希望の兆しが起きているかもしれない。価格下落で買い手が「殺到」している、結果として4月に1,193戸が契約に至ったーー2015年4月以来の成約数だ、ブルームバーグとStreetEasyのデータによるものだ。デフレも悪いものではない。
StreetEasy's price index fell 5.2% from a year ago to $1.11 million.
The index measures change in resale prices for the same properties over
time. It was the largest decline in the index since April 2010, when the index dropped 6.1%. StreetEasyの価格指数は一年前から5.2%下落し$1.11Mになった。この指数は同一不動産の再度の売り出し価格変化を追跡している。2010年4月以来の大幅下落だ、当時この指数は6.1%下落した。
The newfound bid for homes could be a sign that Manhattan's market
may be emerging from a drought of buyers, who had been previously been
sitting on the sidelines, scared of overpaying for properties. As prices
move toward more realistic buyer expectations, capital has been put to
work.
Grant Long, senior economist at StreetEasy said: “Sellers are finally
getting that many of their price expectations were not realistic.
They’re lowering their prices to a point that’s attractive to buyers.”
StreetEasy の上級エコノミストGrant Longが言うには:「予想価格が現実的でないことに売り手が気づき始めた。買い手の興味を引くまで値を下げ始めた。」
Here are some of StreetEasy's additional findings:
さらにStreetEasyはこういう点を指摘する:
The most homes went into contract since 2015. The
number of pending sales in Manhattan increased 26.6% from last year, up
by more than 250. The number of homes entering contract in Upper
Manhattan doubled year over year, from 66 to 132.
Inventory growth slowed. While sales inventory
growth remained in the double digits at 10.8%, it still moved at the
slowest pace in 13 months. The volume of new inventory hitting the
market shrank by 9.6% over last year.
As sellers priced homes more strategically from the start, fewer made price cuts. The
share of homes with a price cut fell slightly for the first time in 13
months. Some 14.1% of Manhattan homes saw a price decrease in April —
down 0.6 percentage points from last year. The share of price cuts fell
the most in the Upper West Side — down 2.1 percentage points to 14.2%.
年初より売値は戦略的になっており、値下げをする売りてもいる。値下げする住宅の割合はこの13か月で初めて少し減った。4月に値下げしたマンハッタン住宅は14.1%だったーー昨年から0.6%減っている。値下げ割合が減ったのはおもに Upper West Sideだーー2.1ポイント減って14.2%となった。
Luxury home inventory dropped slightly. The number
of homes for sale priced within the top 20% of the market fell by 0.3%,
the first year-over-year decrease in inventory since February 2018.
Recall, in early May, we wrote that inflated and overpriced retail real estate in Manhattan was turning the city into a "wasteland". Later, the Post wrote an article confirming our writeup from late March which pointed out that high prices were driving businesses out of town:
The total number comes to precisely one — a tiny shop to buy drones.
That’s right: On a nine-block stretch of what’s arguably the world’s
most famous avenue, steps south of the bustling Time Warner Center and
the planned new Nordstrom department store, lies a shopping wasteland.
開いている店は一軒だけだーードローン買い取りの小さな店だけだ。まさにそのとおり:この9ブロックは世界で最も有名なとおりだ、Time Warner Centerの賑わいから南へ、そしてNordstormが新規店舗を計画している、これがシャッター街となっている。
It appears that, despite what central bankers think, the only
logical, and natural, response to high prices is, gasp, low prices.
Unfortunately, while the Federal Reserve may be willing to ease back on
US home prices, it has so far refused to do the same to the stock
market. And just like unsustainably high prices resulted in the bursting
of the housing bubble in 2007, so the inability of the market to
deflate to a fair value will be the reason behind the next great bubble
burst.
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを7時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、2018年の最後の3ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
文章全体がZeroHedge特有の皮肉で満ちています。 Global Earnings Downgrades At Highest Level In 10 Years by Tyler Durden Thu, 01/10/2019 - 16:45 As stock markets plunged in December, asset-gatherers and commission-takers (and politicians) rushed on to every media outlet to reassure everyone that the fundamentals are "solid", "extremely strong", "very positive" ... pick your spin. The only problem is that top-down, the fundamentals are dismally disappointing... 12月の株式急落で、株式を買い集めている人、手数料狙いの人(そして政治家)はメディアに出ずっぱりで誰もにこう訴えた、ファンダメンタルズは「健全」、「とても強い」、「とてもポジティブ」・・・みなさんもこれに振り回された。唯一の問題はこれらは上意下達であることだ、実際のファンダメンタルズは悲しいかな失望するものだ・・・・ And bottom-up, the fundamentals are almost as bad as they have ever been as analysts take the ax to their outlooks... the number of analysts’ global earnings downgrades exceeded upgrades by the most since 2...