Authored by Jesse Colombo via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Market volatility has reared its ugly head once again in
recent weeks as the trade war with China took a turn for the worse and
global economic data continues to weaken. On Thursday, the Dow
lost 286.14 points, or 1.1%, the S&P 500 fell 34.03 points, or 1.2%,
and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 122.56 points, or 1.6%. From a
technical perspective, the S&P 500 is sitting just above a key
support level at 2,800. The S&P 500 has bumped its head or bounced
off of this levels quite a few times since early-2018. If the S&P
500 closes below 2,800 in a decisive manner, it would increase the
likelihood of further downside.
ここ数週で再び市場は醜い head パターンとなった、中国との貿易戦争が悪化しまた世界経済データが弱いからだ。火曜にDJIは1.1%相当の286.14ポイント下落し、S&P500は1.2%相当の34.03ポイント下落した、そしてNasdaq Compositeは1.6%相当の122.56ポイント下落だった。チャートテクニカルから見るとS&P500は2,800の重要なサポートレベルの少し上にいる。S&P500は2018年はじめ以来このレベルからの頭出しを何回か繰り返した。もしS&P500が終値で2,800を確実に下回るなら、さらなる下落が起きる可能性が高い。
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is sitting just above its 25,250
support level that it has bounced off of in recent months. If the Dow
closes below this level in a convincing manner, it may foreshadow even
more downside action.
The tech-oriented Nasdaq Composite Index is just above its 7,600
support level that has come into play several times in the past year. If
the Nasdaq closes convincingly below 7,600, further bearish action is
likely.
テック銘柄の多いNasdaq Composite Indexは7,600のサポートの少し上だ、ここ数年で何度かこのレベルになった。もしNasdaq が終値で確実に7,600を下回るならさらなるベア傾向となるだろう。
The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index closed just above its 1,500 support
level. If it closes below this level, further weakness is likely.
Russell 2000小型株指数は1,500のサポートの少し上だ。もし終値でこのレベルを下回るなら、さらなる下落となるだろう。
After the U.S. stock market’s 300% gain in the past decade (which is an unsustainable bubble), it is prudent to be aware of the risk of a sharp unwind:
The S&P 500 rose much faster than earnings and is now at
1929-like valuations, which means that a painful correction is
inevitable:
S&P500は収益以上に急速に上昇してきた、今や1929年ほどのバリエーションだ、ということは痛みの伴う調整が不可避だ:
Another indicator that supports the “higher volatility ahead” thesis
is the 10-year/2-year Treasury spread. When this spread is inverted, it
leads the Volatility Index by approximately three years. If this
historic relationship is still valid, we should prepare for much higher
volatility over the next few years. A volatility surge of the magnitude
suggested by the 10-year/2-year Treasury spread would likely be the
result of a recession and a bursting of the massive asset bubble created
by the Fed in the past decade.
For now, I am watching how the major indices act at their key support
levels. If the indices break their supports at the same time that the
trade war worsens even further, we could see another sharp sell-off like
the one in late-2018.
Mish: Gold Hits New Record High And There's More To Come by Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2020 - 10:10 Twitter Facebook Reddit Email Print Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Gold futures just touched $1928 taking out the Intraday high of $1923.70 in 2011. ゴールド先物が$1928になり、2011年の日中高値$1923.70を超えた。 11-Week Run 11週連続上昇 Gold is on a huge 11-week run. The last time gold did that was at the 2011 high. ゴールドはなんと11週連続で上昇だ。前回の新高値は2011年のことだった。 Is a pullback in order? A Gold COT chart says otherwise. 通常の引き戻しが待ち構えているだろうか? ゴールドのCoTチャートを見るとそうでもなさそうだ。 Gold COT Chart ゴールドCoTチャート Understanding Futures 先物市場を読み解く In the futures world there is a short for every long. 先物市場ではどのロングにもショートが対応している。 The first horizontal box has Large Specs, Small Specs, and Commercials. This is It's Old COT reporting. この図の下部、最初の横長い箱に示すのは Large Specs、Small Specs、そしてCommercialsのポジションだ。このチャートは従来からのCoT...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを7時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、2018年の最後の3ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...