もし中国がスーパーパワーを持ちたいなら、相応の規模の自国通貨を発行せねばならず、かつ世界の為替市場に価格発見能力を持たせねばならない。 Quick history quiz: in all of recorded history, how many
superpowers pegged their currency to the currency of a rival superpower? Put another way: how many superpowers have made their own currency dependent on another superpower's currency?
Only one: China. China pegs its currency, the yuan
(RMB) to the U.S. dollar. It adjusts the peg a bit here and there, but
the yuan's value is set by the Chinese state, not by the market of
buyers and sellers.
(Yes, various nations have used gold coins minted by rival powers
(Spanish pieces of eight were money everywhere, for example) but we're
talking about fiat currencies, backed by nothing but supply and demand, not intrinsically valuable gold coins.)
Second question: is pegging your currency to a rival power's currency a sign of strength? The
obvious answer is no. It's a sign of weakness. A real financial power
issues its own currency and let's the global FX (foreign exchange)
market discover the relative price / value of the currency. The
financial power trusts the market to discover the value / price of its
currency, and it responds by raising or lowering the yields on its
government bonds and other pricing inputs. If the issuing nation won't allow users and owners of its currency price discovery, few will want the currency because they can't trust the state's arbitrary, non-market price. This
reality is reflected in the chart below of global currencies' relative
share in global payments, loans and reserves. China's currency, the yuan
(RMB) is basically signal noise: its global role in payments, loans and
reserves is near-zero.
Why does China cling to state control of its currency's valuation? The
obvious answer is that China's economy and global role are too fragile
to absorb a major revaluation of its currency up or down: a major loss
in purchasing power would raise the cost of energy and other imports,
while a major strengthening of the yuan would crush the global
competitiveness of China's goods and services. As for the idea that China will unpeg its currency when it
backs it with gold, recall that "backed by gold" means "convertible to
gold." If the yuan weakens and other nation-state owners of the
currency decide gold is the safer bet, China will have to exchange yuan
for gold if it wants to make good on its claim to be backing its
currency with gold.
どうして中国は自国通貨価値の国家支配にここまでこだわるのだろう？答えは明らかで、中国経済とその世界での役割はあまりに脆弱で通貨評価の上下を吸収できないということだ：大きく購買力が下がるとエネルギーや他の輸入コストを上げることになる、一方でRMBが大きく強くなると中国製品の世界的競争力を急落させてしまう。中国がペッグを止めてゴールド裏付けとする議論に関しては、「backed by gold」というのは「convertible to gold」ということだ。もしRMBが弱くなり他国が持つRMBをゴールドに変えたほうが安全と思うと、中国はRMBをゴールドに変えざるを得ない。
If the currency isn't convertible to gold, it isn't backed by gold at all; it's just another fiat currency backed by nothing.
ゴールド変換ができないなら、backed by gold とは全く言えない；全く裏付けのない別の管理通貨ということだ。
If China wants superpower status, it will have to issue its currency in size and let the global FX market discover its price. Anything less leaves China dependent on the U.S. and its currency, the dollar.
If China is so powerful, why doesn't it let its currency float on the
FX market like other trading nations? Until its currency floats freely
like other currencies and the yuan's price is discovered by supply and
demand, China's global role in currency payments, loans and reserves
will remain near-zero. That is a weakness that appears to be
insurmountable. もし中国が底まで力強いなら、どうして他国のように為替市場の変動相場通貨にしないのか？他国と同様にRMBが変動相場となりRMB価格が需給で決まるようにならないかぎり、支払い・債務・準備金における中国の通貨の役割はほとんどゼロのままだろう。これは明らかに克服できない弱さだ。
* * *
Big US Stocks’ Q1’19 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton May 10, 2019 3653 Words The US stock markets sure feel inflectiony, at a major juncture. After achieving new all-time record highs, sentiment was euphoric heading into this week. But those latest heights could be a massive triple top that formed over 15 months. Then heavy selling erupted in recent days as the US-China trade war suddenly went hostile. The big US stocks’ just-reported Q1’19 fundamentals will help determine where markets go next. 米国株式市場は転換点を迎えたように感じる、大きな岐路だ。記録的新高値を迎えた後、今週に向けてeuphoricな心理が優勢だった。しかし直近の高値は１５か月をかけた大きなトリプルトップかもしれない。その後ここ数日大きな売りが起きた、米中貿易戦争が急に敵対的になったためだ。大型米国銘柄が開示した２０１９Q1ファンダメンタルズで市場の今後の行方を判断できるだろう。 Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data avail
The Message From The Jobs Report – The Economy Is Slowing Written by Lance Roberts | Apr, 8, 2019 Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the March monthly “employment report” which showed an increase in employment of 196,000 jobs. As Mike Shedlock noted on Friday: 先週、BLSが３月の月例「雇用統計」を発表した、雇用が１９６，０００増えたという。Mike Shedlockは金曜にこう書いた： “The change in total non-farm payroll employment for January was revised up from +311,000 to +312,000, and the change for February was revised up from +20,000 to +33,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 14,000 more than previously reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 180,000 per month over the last 3 months. 「１月全非農業雇用は＋３１１，０００から＋３１２，０００に改定された、２月のデータは＋２０，０００から＋３３，０００に改定された。これらの改定で１月と２月を合算した雇用増は以前の報告よりも１４，０００多くなった。改定後でみると、雇用増は直近三ヶ月で平均１８０，０００／月となる。 BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance BLS 雇用統計概観 Nonfarm Payroll : +196,000 – Establishment Survey Emp
Global Warming Fraud Exposed In Pictures by Tyler Durden Tue, 10/01/2019 - 12:25 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Climate change alarmists have convinced the public something must be done now. The reports are easily debunked as fraud ... 気候変動主張者たちは今行動を実行せねばと確信している。その手の報告書はでたらめだということが簡単に解る・・・・ My Gift To Climate Alarmists 気候変動活動家への贈り物 Tony Heller does an amazing job of showing how the fraud takes place in his video entitled My Gift To Climate Alarmists. Tony Heller は素晴らしい仕事をした、このビデオを見ると彼らの主張が如何にでたらめかということがよく分かる、そのタイトルは My Gift To Climate Alarmists。 The video is only 12.51 minutes long. このビデオはわずか１２．５１分しかない。（訳注：画像・動画がいっぱいで英語がわからなくても理解できる） Cherry Picking 例を上げると Heatwaves increasing since 1960 熱波発生は１９６０年以降増えているという Arctic ice declining since 1979 北極海氷は１９７９年以来減っているという Wildfires increasing sinc
The Profit Party Is Over: Q1 Earnings Growth Crashes, Set For Biggest Drop In 3 Years by Tyler Durden Sun, 02/03/2019 - 17:00 After last week's earnings deluge, 46% of the companies in the S&P 500 have now reported actual results for Q4 2018. And according to Factset data , so far earnings season is mediocre at best with the percentage of companies reporting EPS above estimates (70%) below the 5-year average. Companies are also reporting earnings that are 3.5% above the estimates, which is also below the 5-year average. The silver lining is that in terms of revenues, the percentage of companies reporting actual revenues above estimates (62%) is above the 5-year average, and on aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 0.8% above the estimates, which is also above the 5-year average. 先週は収益開示が最も多く、S&P500構成銘
China's Looming Liquidity Shortage (Or Why Endless Stimulus Isn't Working) by Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2019 - 21:30 Chinese Premier Li promised yet more stimulus measures overnight from tax cuts to focused rate reductions (but, he admitted, not blanket liquidity provision). But, after over 60 different 'stimulus' measures in the last few months and last night's promises , nothing seems to be working as China's economic data continues to tumble. 中国李克強首相が昨夜さらなる刺激策を約束した、減税や金利引き下げだ（しかし彼も認めるように全面的な流動性注入ではない）。しかしここ数ヶ月６０回にもおよぶ「刺激策」を講じたにもかかわらず、また昨夜の約束にもかかわらず、どれ一つ効果を発することなく中国経済指標は下落を続けている。 As Goldman's Andrew Tilton (Chief Asia Economist) suggested: ゴールドマンサックスのAndrew Tilton（アジアエコノミスト主任）はこう示唆する： " There are reasons to be concerned [that easing is becoming less effective]. Local government officials who typ
