もし中国がスーパーパワーを持ちたいなら、相応の規模の自国通貨を発行せねばならず、かつ世界の為替市場に価格発見能力を持たせねばならない。 Quick history quiz: in all of recorded history, how many
superpowers pegged their currency to the currency of a rival superpower? Put another way: how many superpowers have made their own currency dependent on another superpower's currency?
Only one: China. China pegs its currency, the yuan
(RMB) to the U.S. dollar. It adjusts the peg a bit here and there, but
the yuan's value is set by the Chinese state, not by the market of
buyers and sellers.
(Yes, various nations have used gold coins minted by rival powers
(Spanish pieces of eight were money everywhere, for example) but we're
talking about fiat currencies, backed by nothing but supply and demand, not intrinsically valuable gold coins.)
Second question: is pegging your currency to a rival power's currency a sign of strength? The
obvious answer is no. It's a sign of weakness. A real financial power
issues its own currency and let's the global FX (foreign exchange)
market discover the relative price / value of the currency. The
financial power trusts the market to discover the value / price of its
currency, and it responds by raising or lowering the yields on its
government bonds and other pricing inputs. If the issuing nation won't allow users and owners of its currency price discovery, few will want the currency because they can't trust the state's arbitrary, non-market price. This
reality is reflected in the chart below of global currencies' relative
share in global payments, loans and reserves. China's currency, the yuan
(RMB) is basically signal noise: its global role in payments, loans and
reserves is near-zero.
Why does China cling to state control of its currency's valuation? The
obvious answer is that China's economy and global role are too fragile
to absorb a major revaluation of its currency up or down: a major loss
in purchasing power would raise the cost of energy and other imports,
while a major strengthening of the yuan would crush the global
competitiveness of China's goods and services. As for the idea that China will unpeg its currency when it
backs it with gold, recall that "backed by gold" means "convertible to
gold." If the yuan weakens and other nation-state owners of the
currency decide gold is the safer bet, China will have to exchange yuan
for gold if it wants to make good on its claim to be backing its
currency with gold.
どうして中国は自国通貨価値の国家支配にここまでこだわるのだろう？答えは明らかで、中国経済とその世界での役割はあまりに脆弱で通貨評価の上下を吸収できないということだ：大きく購買力が下がるとエネルギーや他の輸入コストを上げることになる、一方でRMBが大きく強くなると中国製品の世界的競争力を急落させてしまう。中国がペッグを止めてゴールド裏付けとする議論に関しては、「backed by gold」というのは「convertible to gold」ということだ。もしRMBが弱くなり他国が持つRMBをゴールドに変えたほうが安全と思うと、中国はRMBをゴールドに変えざるを得ない。
If the currency isn't convertible to gold, it isn't backed by gold at all; it's just another fiat currency backed by nothing.
ゴールド変換ができないなら、backed by gold とは全く言えない；全く裏付けのない別の管理通貨ということだ。
If China wants superpower status, it will have to issue its currency in size and let the global FX market discover its price. Anything less leaves China dependent on the U.S. and its currency, the dollar.
If China is so powerful, why doesn't it let its currency float on the
FX market like other trading nations? Until its currency floats freely
like other currencies and the yuan's price is discovered by supply and
demand, China's global role in currency payments, loans and reserves
will remain near-zero. That is a weakness that appears to be
insurmountable. もし中国が底まで力強いなら、どうして他国のように為替市場の変動相場通貨にしないのか？他国と同様にRMBが変動相場となりRMB価格が需給で決まるようにならないかぎり、支払い・債務・準備金における中国の通貨の役割はほとんどゼロのままだろう。これは明らかに克服できない弱さだ。
* * *
Class 8 Heavy Truck Orders Crash 68% in January by Tyler Durden Wed, 02/06/2019 - 17:25 Among the latest dismal news about the strength of the US economy, on Tuesday ACT Research released preliminary truck orders for January 2019 which showed that Class 8 truck orders collapsed an astounding 68% for January. The decline is being attributed to a 300,000+ vehicle backlog potentially prompting fleets to halt purchases in the near term. 米国経済に関し最近憂鬱なニュースが多い中で、火曜にACT researchが２０１９年１月のトラック発注を開示した、１月にClass 8のトラック発注がなんと６８％も急落した。この発注減は短期的に３００，０００台超の潜在在庫を生み出す。 Specifically, in January Class 8 net orders were 15,800 units (14,700 SA; 176,400 SAAR), down 68% YoY and down 26% MoM. Class 5- 7 January net orders were 23,400...
中国が債務増加していることはたしかです。ただ日本の例を日銀資金循環報告でみると家計、３２０兆円、民間非金融機関１，７８５兆円、一般政府 １，２８４兆円となります。合算すると３，３００兆円にもなり、GDPの６００％を超えています。 https://www.boj.or.jp/statistics/sj/sjexp.pdf この記事の統計と同じ考え方で数値を採用しているのかどうか気になります。 加えて、この資金循環報告に書かれている海外資産というのが内数なのか外数なのか？私にはよくわかりません。当然海外債務も結構な額になります。一度日銀資金循環 図表１を見てください。詳しい方に教えていただければ。 この中国のたどる道は昔のソ連とかMMTと同様で、自国通貨ならいくら発行しても倒産はしない、というか為政者が痛みに耐えることができず緩和を続けるというものです。でも最終的には限界点に達します。ソ連は建国から崩壊まで７０年かかりました。 自由主義経済なら立ち行かなくなった企業は退場してもらうというのが減速なのですが、これがうまくゆかないわけです。 でも日本は中国のはるか先を言っているように見えます。ちょっと検索したのですが、日本の債務に関しては政府債務に言及したものばかりで、この記事のように民間、個人まで総合的に記載しているのは日銀の資金循環統計しか見つけることができませんでした。 China Continues To Pile Debt On Top Of More Debt Written by Jesse Colombo | Feb, 27, 2019 Like many countries, China attempted to rein in its debt growth over the past couple years, but ultimately gave up and is now back to piling on even more debt. Bloomberg reports – 多くの国と同様に、中国もここ２年ほど債務増加を抑えようとしてきた、しかし結局の所諦めてしまい、今や更に債務を積み上げている。ブルームバーグ記事ーー For almost two years,...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう "On The Precipice" by Tyler Durden Mon, 06/24/2019 - 14:30 Authored by Kevin Ludolph via Crescat Capital, Dear Investors: The US stock market is retesting its all-time highs at record valuations yet again. We strongly believe it is poised to fail. The problem for bullish late-cycle momentum investors trying to play a breakout to new highs here is the oncoming freight train of deteriorating macro-economic conditions. 米国株式は記録的バリエーションのもとで再度過去最高を試している。私どもはこれが失敗すると強く信じている。景気拡大終盤で強気のモメンタム投資家が新高値を試そうとしていることの問題は、マクロ経済条件の悪化にある。 US corporate profit growth, year-over-year, for the S&P 500 already fully evaporated in the first quarter of 2019 and is heading toward outright decline for the full year based on earnings estimate revision trends. Note the alligator jaws divergence in the chart be...
Powell Keeps The Bond Bull Kicking Written by Lance Roberts | Mar, 21, 2019 In a widely expected outcome, the Federal Reserve announced no change to the Fed funds rate but did leave open the possibility of a rate hike next year. Also, they committed to stopping “Quantitative Tightening (or Q.T.)” by the end of September. 多くの人が予想したとおり、FEDはFFR変更をしないだけでなく来年も不明とした。さらには、QTを９月末に終えると約束した。 The key language from yesterday’s announcement was: 昨日の発表の重要な部分はこういう具合だ： “ Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market remains strong but that growth of economic activity has slowed from its solid rate in the fourth quarter . Payroll employment was little changed in February, but job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. 「１月のFOMC以来の情報を分析すると、労働市場は強いがQ4に比べると経済成長は鈍化している。２月の雇用環境にほとんど変化がなかった、ここ数ヶ月確実に雇用は増えている、そして失業率は低いままだ。 Recent indicators point to s...
