In
at least one important way, President Trump's decision to browbeat the
Fed into pausing its program of interest-rate hikes is paying off bigly
for America's most vulnerable corporate borrowers.
The Fed's decision to 'pause' interest rate hikes comes as nearly
one-third of the entire $1.2 trillion US high-yield market is slated for
maturity over the next four years. That's a record proportion,
according to a team of strategists at Barclays led by Bradley Rogoff,
and compares with a post-2000 average of just 20%. And after the
historic market 'freeze' late last year where not a single high-yield
bond was issued, corporate America has apparently got the message: Now
is the time to strike while the iron is hot. The more speculative-grade the rating, the more important it is for companies to act now to refinance that debt. ＄１．２Tにもなる米国高金利債権の１／３が今後４年で満期を迎えようとするなかで、FEDが金利引き上げを「中断」することを決めた。Bradley RogoffをリーダーとするBarclaysのストラテジストによると、この割合はとても大きなもので、比較として示すと、２０００以降での平均満期割合はわずか２０％にすぎなかった。そして昨年遅くに歴史的なこの市場の「凍結」が生じ、まったく高金利債権は発行されなかった、米国全体が明らかにこういうメッセージを発している：今こそ、鉄は熱いうちに打て、ということだ。周囲で投機的企業格付が増えるほどに、多くの企業にとってはいまいそいで債務の借り換えをすることがさらに大切になる。
Though many companies have years to plan on refinancing (almost none
will pay off their debt tabs entirely), many are choosing to refinance
now, while rates are low, and demand for higher-yielding debt is high.
Junk bonds tanked last week as markets shunned risky assets, but this
didn't dampen buyers' appetite: Last week was the biggest week for
issuance in nearly two years, with junk issuers selling $12 billion. So
far this year, more than $80 billion of bonds that listed refinancing in
the prospectus have been issued. That has accounted for more than 70%
of the issuance so far this year, according to Bloomberg.
And while credit analysts at some of the bigger fund managers insist
that this is 'healthy', they seem to have neglected the fact that the
president has effectively given corporations a green light to continue
on their debt binge by effectively putting off their day of reckoning
until the Democrats take back control of the White House.
"Companies are extending maturities out, and that’s healthy," said
Scott Roberts, head of high-yield debt at Invesco Ltd. Refinancing is a
better use of debt than buying back shares, he added. "I’ve seen frothy
before and this is not it."
"I feel good about this high-yield market and we are trying to push issuers to take advantage of it,"
said Richard Zogheb, global head of debt capital markets at Citigroup
Inc. "Investors are so excited now that the underlying rate environment
is more dovish, and that’s really good news for high-yield borrowers."
Companies that backed out of their issuance plans late last year
during the sudden market drought are beginning to realize that 'market
conditions' probably aren't going to get much better than they are now.
"We had half a dozen companies that were planning to go as early as
nine or 10 months ago, then the market started weakening and we never
got to the point where we could do those deals," said John Gregory, head
of leveraged-finance syndicate at Wells Fargo & Co., referring to
when junk bond prices fell late last year. "Now we’re finally getting to that point."
What's more, floating-rate leveraged loans have become less
attractive thanks to the Fed's capitulation, creating something of a
perfect storm for the junk-bond market, which is great for heavily
indebted companies hoping to lock in the lowest possible interest rate. 更に言うと、変動金利レバレッジドローンはそれほど魅力的にならなくなった、FEDが罠に陥ったためだ、これがジャンクボンド市場に何らかの嵐を引き起こしつつある、債務過多の企業にとって最低金利を得ることを期待している。
"I can’t remember when $5 billion worth of deals came in one day," said Matt Eagan, a portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles & Co.
"The market is generally wide open for issuers," said Jenny Lee,
co-head of leveraged loan and high-yield capital markets at JPMorgan
Chase & Co. "We’re advising issuer clients to look harder at doing
high-yield bonds."
Even if borrowers truly can't afford it, the longer they can delay
their day of reckoning, the greater the chance that the Fed takes care
of their obligations for them when the central bank inevitably pivots to
buying corporate debt - as former Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen recently
suggested - during QE4.
この記事よりももっと詳しい分析がこちらにあります。： https://www.adamtownsend.me/china-financial-stability-report/ 元データは毎年開示されるPBOCの英文報告に基づいたものです： http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/130736/index.html ただ、毎年２００ページ超もあり、そう簡単に読みこなせるものではありません。この記事の表のようなわかりやすい形で整理して開示はしていません。この記事の表にはどの年の何ページに書かれたデータであるかが示されています。日本語ネットの記事ではシャードーバンクの規模がよくわからないというものが多いですが、毎年PBOC自らがシャドーバンク規模を自ら認めています。その規模は驚くものです。 この記事に書かれている数値は驚くばかりです。ここまで信用創造をしているのかと驚きます。そりゃ昨年来RRRの低減とかの緩和策を連発してますが、効果が無いのももっともです。これまでの緩和の規模からすると昨年のこの手の緩和はその規模が全く足りないですね。一年以上前にZeroHedgeで中国企業の殆どがミンスキーポイントを超えている、企業の営業利益で債務金利が賄えず利払いのために新たな借金をしている、というのが詳しくデータで示されていましたが、なるほどなと思います。 The Black Swan So Ugly No One Will Talk About It by Phoenix Capita… Fri, 01/11/2019 - 11:55 The biggest black swan facing the financial system is China. 金融システムが直面する最大のブラックスワンは中国だ。 China has been the primary driver of growth for the global economy since the 2008 Crisis...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
