Across the world, warning signs are flashing about the state of the economy. 世界中で経済状態に警告シグナルが点滅している。
Three-fourths of the global economy (per GDP) will experience a
slowdown this year. The pause in growth has unquestionably transmitted
through the global smartphone industry, sending shipment volumes down
6.6% YoY in 1Q19, according to new data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
世界経済の3/4は今年経済減速となるだろう。成長停滞は疑うこと無く世界的スマートフォーン産業にも影響する、すでに2019Q1の出荷数はYoYで6.6%下落している、最新のIDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Trackerによるものだ。
Smartphone vendors (Samsung, Huawei, Apple, Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo, and
others) shipped 310.8 million units in 1Q19, recorded the sixth
consecutive quarter of decline. Last year, smartphone shipments fell
4.1% over 2017, as 1Q19 was down 3.5% -- about half of what the market
experienced in 1Q19, indicating the slowdown has only accelerated.
The plunge in demand is more proof that 2019 will be another huge down year for worldwide smartphone shipments. 2019にはさらに需要が後退し、世界的に出荷数が減るだろう。
At the heart of these high-tech handheld gadgets, are microprocessor
chips that serve as the central processing unit. Earlier this week, we highlighted a report from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) that warned of a 13% drop YoY in 1Q19 in chips, a direct correlation to waning demand from smartphones.
However, there was one green shoot, Huawei become number two
smartphone manufacturer in the world, with smartphone shipments
increasing 50% YoY in 1Q19.
"It is becoming increasingly clear that Huawei is laser focused on
growing its stature in the world of mobile devices, with smartphones
being its lead horse," said Ryan Reith, program vice president with
IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "The overall smartphone market
continues to be challenged in almost all areas, yet Huawei was able to
grow shipments by 50%, not only signifying a clear number two in terms
of market share but also closing the gap on the market leader Samsung.
This new ranking of Samsung, Huawei, and Apple is very likely what we'll
see when 2019 is all said and done."
「とても明らかなのはHuaweiが注目の的だ、世界の移動体デバイス業界で地位を上げている、 スマートフォンがその典型だ、」とRyan Reithは言う、彼はIDC Worldwide Mobile Device Trackersの副社長だ。スマートフォン市場はあらゆる分野で挑戦を受けている、それでもHuaweiは50%の成長を果たし、マーケットシェアで第二位の地位を獲得するだけでなく、戦闘のSamsungとの距離を縮めている。新たなランキングでは、Samsung, Huawei そしてAppleの順番で、結局の所2019通年でもこうなるだろう。」
IDC poured cold water on a 2H19 rebound in China, indicating the
smartphone industry in the country will likely be "challenged" for the
remainder of 2019, and noted that the epicenter of the downturn was in
North America. US smartphone shipments declined 15% YoY during 1Q19 as
replacements rates slowed. Apple iPhone, Samsung, and LG Electronics
performed rather poor in 1Q19.
"The less than stellar first quarter in the United States can be
attributed to the continued slowdown we are witnessing at the high end
of the market," said Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC's
Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "Consumers continue to hold on
to their phones longer than before as newer higher priced models offer
little incentive to shell out top dollar to upgrade. Moreover, the
pending arrival of 5G handsets could have consumers waiting until both
the networks and devices are ready for prime time in 2020."
米国ではQ1ほどに確実ではなく、その原因はハイエンド製品の減速に見られる、」とAnthony Scarsellaは言う、彼はIDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker
の調査マネージャだ。「消費者はかつてよりも長期間携帯電話を利用する傾向にあり、大枚をはたいて高価な新製品を買おうとはあまり思わない。更に言うと、端末とネットワークが5G対応するのは2020年とみており、それまで先延ばしにしている。
The deterioration in smartphone sales forced LG Electronics in South Korea
last month to suspend all smartphone production in the country. The
South Korean based electronics company is expected to transfer resources
to Vietnam, which follows a list of multinationals reorganizing their
complex supply chains as a global synchronized slowdown gains momentum
in 2Q.
Samsung controls 23.1% of the global market share, the largest out of
any company, but it's down 8.1% from 78.2 million shipments in 1Q18.
Huawei logged a 50.3% increase in shipments, shifting the Shenzhen based
company to the second largest smartphone manufacturer in the world with
59.1 million shipments, while Apple was demoted to the third spot since
its orders crashed 30.2% YoY to 36.4 million shipments.
Both reports from IDC and SIA suggest the second half rebound that
has already been priced into global stock markets through multiple
expansion is merely a fantasy. Perhaps, the plunge in smartphone and
semiconductor chip demand is a sign the global economy is still
crumbling.
We'll leave readers with a chart of where the global economy in terms
of trade volume is headed. As shown below, the move is down and it's
likely to be met with new rounds of global central bank easing.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ2週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
結局、中国は隣国日本で20年前に起きたことを学んでいなかったということでしょう、というかどの国もどの政府も十分成熟するまでは「わかっちゃいるけどやめられない」ということでしょうね、きっと。 Spooked By Apple? Wait ‘Til China’s Bubble Bursts Written by Jesse Colombo | Jan, 3, 2019 Apple stock plunged nearly 10% on Thursday after the company cut its revenue forecast due to slowing iPhone sales in China. Apple’s woes dragged U.S. stock indices lower by more than 2% as fears of a more extensive China-driven slowdown spread. アップルの株価は火曜に約10%下落した、同社が中国でのiPhone売上原則を予想したためだ。アップルの弱さが米国株式指数を2%以上押し下げた、中国主導でさらなる原則が広がるのではという懸念からだ。 From the New York Times : ニューヨークタイムスによると: For years, no matter what was happening elsewhere, global companies bet billions upon billions of dollars that China’s consumers would keep spending money. 長年、他国で何が起きようとも多国籍企業は中国消費は巨額を維持することに賭けてきた。 Now, just when the world economy could use their financial firepower, they are no longer so quick to open their wallets. 今や、世界経済が金融弾薬を用いてももはや彼らの財布を緩めることはできない。 The latest sign of a slowdown in...
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
Barrick’s average quarterly production since Q4’16 plunged an astounding 8.6% YoY. The reason Barrick’s management blew $6.5b in stock buying Randgold is they desperately needed more production to mask the precipitous drop in their own. Barrick’s total 2018 production of 4525k ounces was 18.0% below the 5516k it mined only a couple years earlier in 2016. At best adding Randgold just regains those losses. Barrickの平均四半期生産は2016Q4以来なんとYoYで8.6%下落している。Barrickの取締役が$6.5Bも投じてRandgoldの株式を購入した理由は、彼らはなんとしても急落する自らの生産量を隠すために生産量増加としたかったからだ。Barrickの2018全生産量は4525Kオンスで、わずか2年前の5516kオンスから18.0%も少ない。Randgoldを買収したところでこの下落を補うに過ぎない。 And GOLD has been suffering the same production struggles as ABX. Over its past 4 reported quarters, Randgold’s gold mined has fallen an average of 7.4% YoY. Can bringing two rapidly-depleting major gold miners together magically make a stronger one? I doubt it. Barrick’s reported production will enjoy a big temporary boost...
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