Back
in December 2018, when conventional wisdom was falsely convinced by the
handshake between Trump and Xi that the tariff war between the US and
China would soon end, we warned that not only is the trade war nowhere near over, far from it, but that semiconductors
had "become the central battlefield in the trade war between the two
countries. And it is a battle in which China has a very visible Achilles
heel." ２０１８年１２月を振り返ると、浅知恵で間違っていたのだが、トランプと習近平が手を握り米中関税戦争はすぐに終わると見られていた、そのときZeroHedgeはこう警告していた、貿易戦争はそう簡単に終わらないだけでなく、さらに激化し、「半導体分野が二国間貿易戦争の激戦地となるだろう。そしてこの戦争では明らかにこの分野は中国のアキレス腱だ。と」
Today, SaxoBank's head of equity strategy, Peter Garnry, not only
confirms what we said nearly 6 months ago, but also notes that as the
trade war evolves into a technology cold, many industries stand to lose
but semiconductor companies are more exposed than anything else. "Add in the rising risk of recession and you’ve got what looks like a perfect storm", he notes ominously.
His full note is below: 彼の主張の全文はこちら：
In our recent trade war analysis "Are you ready for a Cold War in tech? " we argued that the world has seen the starting signal of a Cold War in technology between the US and China. The
most likely outcome of the US ban of Huawei due to national security
issues is that the global supply chain will come under attack the next
couple of decades. Many industries from transportation,
semiconductors, biotechnology, rare earth minerals etc. will all most
likely be deemed of national security to both the US and China. If the
rivalry intensifies between the two countries the only sensible
trajectory from here is a global supply chain separation. US and China
will seek to make themselves independent of each other to limit the
political downside risk in an escalating trade and technology war
Semiconductors are bleeding and it will continue 半導体はすでに苦しんでおりこれは継続するだろう。
Since the US escalated the trade war by increasing the tariffs from
10% to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods on May 6 semiconductors have
been tanking. The industry group can be divided into two groups:
semiconductor equipment makers and pure semiconductor manufacturers.
We have devised two custom indices tracking those two industries to
measure the impact on the global supply chain the trade war. As the
chart below shows the semiconductor industry is hurting from the
US-China trade war escalation and our view is that it will continue.
Investors should stay underweight semiconductors. In our last trade war analysis we highlighted the US companies with the biggest exposure to China and the majority of those are in fact US semiconductor companies.
Another
reason to be negative on semiconductors is that earnings have most
likely topped and valuations will have to reflect this over the next 12
months. We see the risk of recession going up from our standpoint of
just three months ago and in the case of a global recession
semiconductor companies would be hit the hardest. To make it a
perfect storm we also expect it to coincide with the beginning of a new
AI winter which will dramatically slow down the growth in
semiconductors.
US semiconductor companies have most to lose 米国半導体企業がもっとも打撃を受ける
If we look at how semiconductor manufacturers are performing based on
their geography we see a clear sign that US companies stand to lose the
most, together with South Korea. If the global supply chain in the
semiconductor industry is being reconfigured US semiconductor companies
will lose short-term revenue in China and will have to invest in new
manufacturing facilities in other countries.
Chinese semiconductor companies will on the other hand be more
directly supported by the Chinese government and thus win out relatively
speaking. But what about WTO rules about state support? In our
view the WTO framework is at risk of being obsolete as the US is clearly
steering away from multilateral trade deals towards bilateral deals. In this world order China would not be accountable for state sponsorship of semiconductors inside WTO.
European semiconductor companies could win relatively in the short-term
but they face the risk that Europe eventually choose the US over China
in the new political future. The caveat here is that Europe needs strong
exports to offset weak domestic growth and here China offers more
upside potential than the US economy. European politicians are entering a
minefield over the next decade as they feel squeezed between the
diverging interests of the US and China.
US equities have broadly outperformed これまで米国株は幅広くアウトパフォームしてきた
Outside the casualties in semiconductors the US equity market has in
fact outperformed the five countries running the biggest trade surplus
against the US. Our trade war ETF basket shows that US equities have
outperformed by 22%-points since early 2018 when the trade war broke
out. In the markets view trade surplus countries are more vulnerable.
Only time will tell whether this is in fact true or not.
現在のCPI推移をみるとFEDの言う２％目標に収まりそうにはありません。実際現在の金利政策はまだ緩和的で、政府の大判振る舞いもあり、M2はコロナ騒動以前のトレンドを大きく超えたまま漸増し始めています。大統領選挙もあり、パウエルは今後利上げはないと言明しており、利下げ期待が高まっています。 In Gold We Trust 2024（２０ページ目）では１９７０年代のインフレ推移と現在２０２４年のインフレ推移を重ね、もっと大きなインフレがこれから来そうだと示唆しています。 https://ingoldwetrust.report/in-gold-we-trust-report/?lang=en 当時は数年間でゴールド価格は７倍になりました。直近のCPIのピーク値と比べると、今回は次のピーク、今後数年、でゴールドが５倍程度になることが期待されます。 ミシガン大学の調査ではインフレがFED目標の２％に落ち着くと期待されず、最近では期待値が増え始めています。
Global Warming Fraud Exposed In Pictures by Tyler Durden Tue, 10/01/2019 - 12:25 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Climate change alarmists have convinced the public something must be done now. The reports are easily debunked as fraud ... 気候変動主張者たちは今行動を実行せねばと確信している。その手の報告書はでたらめだということが簡単に解る・・・・ My Gift To Climate Alarmists 気候変動活動家への贈り物 Tony Heller does an amazing job of showing how the fraud takes place in his video entitled My Gift To Climate Alarmists. Tony Heller は素晴らしい仕事をした、このビデオを見ると彼らの主張が如何にでたらめかということがよく分かる、そのタイトルは My Gift To Climate Alarmists。 The video is only 12.51 minutes long. このビデオはわずか１２．５１分しかない。（訳注：画像・動画がいっぱいで英語がわからなくても理解できる） Cherry Picking 例を上げると Heatwaves increasing since 1960 熱波発生は１９６０年以降増えているという Arctic ice declining since 1979 北極海氷は１９７９年以来減っているという Wildfires increa...
