Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com, The Chinese came from nothing; only 40 years
ago, they had nothing but a billion impoverished peasants. No money. No
technology. No power. Today, they’re on par with the United States. But, if this trend continues – which it will – their economy will be triple the size of the US economy in 20 years.
中国は本当に無から出発した;40年前には本当に何もなく、何億人の貧しい農奴しかいなかった。マネー無し。技術なし。力なし。現在では、彼らは米国と肩をならべるまでになった。しかし、もしこのトレンドが続くならーーそうなりそうな気配だがーー彼らの経済規模はあと20年で米国の3倍にもなる。 Not just a trade war, but a shooting war with the Chinese seems inevitable.
これは貿易戦争ではない、むしろ中国とは実弾の飛び交う戦争が不可避に見える。
Because when tensions build up between states they eventually fight with each other. China is the major rising power. It’s
got four times the US population, it’s soon going to be more
economically powerful, and it’s going to reach military parity. It’s of a
different culture than the US. The US government may figure it’s best
to take them out while the balance still favors them. It’s a bit like
the situation was with the USSR in the ’80s. They could see they were
going into decline, and some Soviet generals figured it was “now or
never” for a successful war. Fortunately they collapsed first.
The Chinese don’t like seeing US aircraft carriers off their coast
any more than we would like to see Chinese aircraft carriers in the Gulf
of Mexico or off Santa Catalina Island.
The last thing that we need is a war with the Chinese.
But if something that’s been called the Thucydides Trap is valid – and I
think it is – then it’s highly likely. It refers to the Peloponnesian
War between Athens and Sparta, at the end of 5th century BC. The Trap is
sprung when a reigning power strikes out at the advancing power while
they still have a chance of winning.
The American military thinks that a shooting war is inevitable. And
it probably is. Why? Well, 5,000 years of history teaches us that it’s
better to start a war when you’re more powerful than your enemy rather
than wait until they’re more powerful than you. It’s always been this
way. The Golden Rule of statecraft is: Do unto others – but do it first.
It’s a very dangerous situation.
The US may do something stupid, like fabricate an incident, and
launch a preemptive strike against China. Or perhaps things just get out
of control, as they did in World War I.
The wars between European powers were bad enough. But when the US
fought Japan it actually turned into a race war. What happened in the
Pacific was far uglier than what happened in Europe. There were
basically no prisoners taken. The next big war – as opposed to a sport war, like those in
the Middle East – is likely to be with China. That could make World War
II look trivial by comparison. 欧州列強の間の戦争はひどいものだった。しかし米日戦争ではこれは民族間戦争となった。欧州戦線よりも太平洋戦争で起きたことは醜かった。基本的に捕虜なんていなかったのだ、お互い死ぬまで戦う。次の大戦ではーー中東のような武力紛争というものではなくーー中国とのものだ。こうなると第二次世界大戦など比較にならないほど些細なものに見えるだろう。
The Next Financial Crisis Will Be “The Big One”
次の金融危機は「大物」になるだろう。
Nobody has a crystal ball, but I think you can see the dominos lining up. Will
this be the big one, or will it just be another recession – an
inconvenience, followed by even bigger bubbles? It’s a question of odds.
And the more dominos that lineup – the political, economic, social,
demographic, military, and cultural dominos – the more logical that this
next one is going to be much bigger than what happened in 2008.
That’s why I use the analogy of 2007-2010 being the leading edge of
this hurricane. We’ve had a very big eye of the storm because of
absolutely massive money printing by central banks all over the world.
It’s had the effect of throwing oil on the water.
When we go into the trailing edge of this hurricane, it’s going to be
much worse, much different, and much longer lasting than the
unpleasantness of 2007-2010. Why? Because that was caused by inflation
and debt. We’ve had vastly more of that over the last decade to paper
over the problems. I think we’re re-entering the hurricane now.
But there’s always some good news. Here the good news is that
most of the real wealth in the world – skills, technologies, buildings,
things of that nature – won’t disappear just because the economy
collapses. Most of the real wealth will still be here. It’s just going
to change ownership. しかしいつものことながら良い知らせもある。今回の良い知らせとは、多くの世界の実資産ーースキル、技術、建物、自然ーーどれもが経済崩壊で消え去るわけではない。多くの実資産は生き残るだろう。単にその持ち主が変わるだけだ。
I look forward to moments of crisis – assuming that the system itself
is maintained in more or less its present form. In other words, it’s
possible to look forward to a financial crisis, if you can position
yourself to weather it. Financial crises come and go. It’s possible to
position yourself to profit from a financial crisis.
I’m not, however, looking forward to an economic crisis, or a
political crisis. Those can have major consequences. And I’m absolutely
not looking forward to a cultural crisis, which is by far the most
serious kind. Unfortunately, that is what we’re facing at this point.
Let’s just hope that what’s coming this time, over the next few
years, is limited to a financial crisis. But I don’t expect that’s the
case. I think it’s going to be economic, political, and cultural as
well.
* * * If the trade war between China and the US turns into a shooting
war, a complete economic collapse is sure to follow. That’s why we’re
sharing our field guide to Surviving and Thriving During an Economic
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C&I Loans Enter The Danger Zone by Tyler Durden Thu, 03/14/2019 - 15:55 Authored by Jesse Colombo via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Commercial and industrial (C&I) loan activity is watched closely by economists to gauge the strength of the economy and estimate where we are in the business cycle. C&I loans are used to finance capital expenditures or increase the borrower’s working capital. The C&I loan cycle often takes up to a couple of years to turn positive after a recession, but provides even more confirmation that an economic expansion is underway. For example, the U.S. Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, but the C&I loan cycle didn’t turn positive until late-2010. C&I loans also help to wa...
Mish: Gold Hits New Record High And There's More To Come by Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2020 - 10:10 Twitter Facebook Reddit Email Print Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Gold futures just touched $1928 taking out the Intraday high of $1923.70 in 2011. ゴールド先物が$1928になり、2011年の日中高値$1923.70を超えた。 11-Week Run 11週連続上昇 Gold is on a huge 11-week run. The last time gold did that was at the 2011 high. ゴールドはなんと11週連続で上昇だ。前回の新高値は2011年のことだった。 Is a pullback in order? A Gold COT chart says otherwise. 通常の引き戻しが待ち構えているだろうか? ゴールドのCoTチャートを見るとそうでもなさそうだ。 Gold COT Chart ゴールドCoTチャート Understanding Futures 先物市場を読み解く In the futures world there is a short for every long. 先物市場ではどのロングにもショートが対応している。 The first horizontal box has Large Specs, Small Specs, and Commercials. This is It's Old COT reporting. この図の下部、最初の横長い箱に示すのは Large Specs、Small Specs、そしてCommercialsのポジションだ。このチャートは従来からのCoT...