Money manager Peter Schiff says the Federal Reserve has already
started a new money printing program that continues to expand the debt
bubble and keep global markets propped up. This started abruptly last
month in what is called the “repo market,” where the Fed provides
liquidity for traders of short-term money or overnight funding.
Peter Schiffはこういう、FEDはすでに紙幣印刷プログラムを再開している、債務バブルを膨らまし世界株式市場を支えている。これは先月突然「レポ市場」で始まった、ここでFEDは短期的な一夜もの流動性を供給している。
Schiff says, “When the Fed was doing QE3, they were buying $85
billion worth of debt per month. They (Fed) just did $176 billion in
three weeks, and they say they are not doing QE..."
"So, the Fed is monetizing more debt not doing QE than when
they were doing QE, which means they are doing it and they are going to
have to do more of it. The reason they are doing it is because
the markets are finally trying to move interest rates higher because the
Fed has been suppressing them. They are artificially low, and these
artificially low interest rates have done tremendous damage to the
economy over the years. Now, rates are rising, and the Fed is trying to
stop this from happening. They shouldn’t do this, but this is what they
have to do to keep the bubble from imploding. This is why they
have to go back to QE. If they didn’t, rates would be much higher, the
stock market would be much lower, real estate prices would be coming
down and we would be heading for another financial crisis.”
What is the end goal in all of this? Schiff contends, “The only goal our leaders have is to postpone the pain so they can get re-elected..." この状況の到達点は何だろう？Schiffの主張はこうだ、「我々の指導者の唯一の目的は痛みを先延ばしし、再選されることだ・・・」
"That’s the whole idea. Look, this is a gigantic time bomb; we just have to make sure that the fuse is longer. We
have an election coming up, and the Fed Chair just wants to make sure
they can keep everything going long enough to resign and have somebody
else be the fall guy. Nobody cares about the long term health of the
economy, and the plan is to delay the inevitable and pretend everything
is good. . . . As far as the debt is concerned, the debt is never going to be repaid. We can’t repay it, and, in fact, nobody even believes we are going to repay it.”
So, what is the next move by central bankers?
Schiff says, “It’s more politically expedient to take the printing
route, especially because nobody believes they are going to destroy the
currency..."
"They think they are going to print enough money to reduce the value
of the debt enough to make everything go away. It’s like trying to get a
little bit pregnant, which is impossible to do. So, once they start
monetizing debt in that way, then that’s it. The dollar is going
to get killed. That’s where we are headed. That’s the only thing that
hasn’t happened yet. Gold has broken out. Gold is over $1,500 per ounce,
and it is hitting record highs in most currencies. Not in the dollar,
yet. The dollar is still relatively strong against other fiat
currencies, but the fact it is this weak against gold shows you there is
a lot of underlying weakness in the dollar that has yet to manifest . .
. but that is going to happen. When the dollar starts to fall, that’s
going to take the bond market down with it. Long term interest rates are
ultimately going to rise when the dollar tanks.”
Source: Bloomberg
Schiff also says, “I think gold is undervalued relative to where it should be because so many people have too much confidence in central banks and fiat money..."
"They don’t realize they need to own gold. I think they are going to come to that epiphany soon, and when they do, the price of gold is going to explode...
Gold is going to be money again. There is no question in my mind that is going to happen.”
ゴールドは再度マネーになろうとしている。そうなることに私は何の疑念も持っていない。」
Schiff predicts President Trump will not get re-elected but not
because of impeachment, but the failing economy. Schiff says, “The trade
deficits are bigger than they have ever been. They are bigger than they
were under Obama..."
"Manufacturing is already in recession, and it will be deeper in recession by the time the election comes. The numbers are the worst they have been since 2009.
Most blue collar voters who voted for Trump in 2016 will be worse off in 2020. They will have more debt, and they will have lower real wages if they even have jobs.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Junk Bond Bubble In Pictures: Deflation Up Next by Tyler Durden Fri, 07/19/2019 - 14:37 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, The widely discussed "everything bubble" is, in reality, a corporate junk bond bubble on steroids sponsored by the Fed ... 幅広く議論されている「everything bubble」は実際に企業ジャンク・ボンドバブルにも言えることであり、これはFEDによりドーピング注入されている・・・ The highest grade AAA corporate bonds yield 2.75%. BBB-rated corporate bonds, just one step above junk, 3.5%. BB-rated bonds yield just 4.28%. 最高級ランクAAA企業債権の金利は２．７５％だ。あとひとランク悪化でジャンク・ボンド入りするBBB債権金利は３．５％。BB格付け債権の金利でもわずか４．２８％でしかない。 Corporate Bond Spreads 企業債権金利のスプレッド The spread between Prime AAA bonds and lower-medium grade bonds (see chart below) is just 0.77 percentage points. 最上位AAA債権と低中ランク債権のスプレッドがわずか０．７７％しかない。 The spre...
Gold Stocks Surge Higher Adam Hamilton February 22, 2019 2932 Words The gold miners’ stocks surged strongly this week, blasting to new upleg highs. The mounting gains are naturally driving more interest in this small contrarian sector, shifting sentiment towards bullish. Despite their accelerating rally, gold stocks still remain fairly low technically and deeply undervalued relative to gold. So their strengthening upleg likely has plenty of room to run considerably higher in coming months. 今週金鉱株は力強く上昇し新高値となった。上昇が積み上がりこの小さなコントラリアンセクターはさらに注目を集めている、これが心理を強気なものにする。ラリーが加速するが、金鉱株はテクニカル的にはまだ安値で、対ゴールドでとても過小評価されている。というわけで力強い上昇は今後数ヶ月まだかなりな上昇余地がある。 The gold miners’ stocks are ultimately leveraged plays on gold, which overwhelmingly drives their profits. The much-maligned yellow metal has enjoyed a strong upleg since mid-August, when record gold-futures s...
一定のエネルギーが外部から流入する系ではその流入量が普遍一定でも、散逸構造、自己組織化をすることが知られています。散逸構造では空間時間的な周期構造が生じます。たとえば隔離された無人島にうさぎときつねを放した場合、時間とともに均衡値に近づきますが、完全な定常状態にはならずその前後で周期的な変動が起きます、うさぎを捕食しすぎてが減るとキツネの食料が減りキツネの個体数上昇には限界が生じ、その後うさぎの個体数が増えます。うさぎの数もその島の植物総量に限界があります。 株式市場にも３０年前後のバリュエーション変動があります。管理人はこの原因はたぶん投資家の世代交代に起因するものだと感じています。多くの人の投資寿命は３０年前後です。私を含めて現在投資をしている人は英國や日本で政府債務解消のための金融抑圧など記憶にもないでしょう、学校の歴史でも教えてくれません。あの米国でも金本位制のなかで国民からゴールドを強制買い上げし、ゴールド価格を改定したり個人がゴールド保有を長年禁止していたことを多くの人は知らないでしょう。少なくとも私は学校の歴史で習った覚えがありません。 また大統領任期に関連した８年前後の変動があります、政党は政権を維持するために選挙に向けて財政刺激策を行いますが選挙後にはこれが息切れします。大統領選挙前数ヶ月の株価動向と選挙結果、民主共和転換、の相関は９０％を超えています。トランプのときもそうでした、YellenはFRB議長としては珍しい熱心な民主党員で、FEDバランスシート正常化の先送り、二回目の金利引き上げの先送りをしたのですが、２０１６年秋には株価が徐々に下落してしまいました。 次に短いのが１年の変動で気候に関する人の気分や新学期・新年度に関するものです。もっと短いのが週間の変動で、月曜や金曜は特異的な動きをします。こういう繰り返しは左の参考図書「市場のサイクルは永遠に」に解説されています。 Are We In A Secular Bull Market? Written by Lance Roberts | Jan, 7, 2019 Just recently, Jeff Saut from Raymond James made a very interesting statement with re...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきました。 Fed’s Risky QE4 Stock Ramp Adam Hamilton January 31, 2020 3567 Words The US stock markets dramatically surged mostly in a straight line since mid-October. This extraordinary rally started when the Federal Reserve announced it would resume expanding its balance sheet for the first time in years. The deluge of new liquidity from that quantitative-easing bond buying has again acted like rocket fuel for stock markets. After shooting vertically they are in real trouble when the Fed pulls back. In early October the flagship US S&P 500 stock index (SPX) slumped to 2888. That was a mild 4.6% pullback from late July’s latest record high. The SPX was still having a great year though, up 15.2% year-to-date at that point thanks to extreme Fed easing . After the SPX had plunged 19.8% mostly in Q4’18 in a severe near-bear cor...
