SoftBank
Group CEO Masayoshi Son has ruined his name in the investment
community. His botched investments in WeWork, Uber, and Slack, just to
name a few, could result in billions of dollars in losses for SoftBank
Group Corp., according to Bloomberg, who compiled several notes from
Wall Street analysts detailing the turmoil.
Profit estimates for SoftBank's Vision Fund were slashed by $5.4
billion to an operating loss of $3.5 billion for 3Q19, wrote Mitsubishi
UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co, in a recent note. Most of the losses
were due to drastic valuation declines of Uber and Slack, and a massive
writedown of WeWork after the shelved IPO collapsed valuations last
month.
Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. believes SoftBank's Vision Fund could
write down as much as $5.93 billion of WeWork, and SoftBank Group could
writedown another $1.24 billion.
Tanaka said Uber's 35% drop in 15 weeks was a massive reason for
Vision Fund's awful 2Q19 performance. He also reduced SoftBank Group's
fiscal year operating profit to $9.446 billion, from $14.861 billion.
Chris Lane, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, said SoftBank might
record a $3.54 billion drop in the value of its Uber stake and $350 loss
in Slack. Lane believes the combined writedown for WeWork could be
$2.82 billion, but that is based on WeWork's valuation sliding to $15
billion from $24 billion. And as we've reported, WeWork could be worth
$10 billion to $12 billion, a dramatic discount from the $47 billion
valuation seen earlier this year.
It was only yesterday when Son spoke with Nikkei Business magazine, and said he is "embarrassed and flustered" by his recent track record.
孫正義が日経ビジネスに昨日語ったところでは、「当惑、失望している」ということだ。
"The results still have a long way to go and that makes me
embarrassed and impatient," said Son. "I used to envy the scale of the
markets in the U.S. and China, but now you see red-hot growth companies
coming out of small markets like in Southeast Asia. There is just no
excuse for entrepreneurs in Japan, myself included."
If macroeconomic headwinds continue to mount in the global economy,
technology unicorn valuations will reset further, meaning that
SoftBank's Vision Fund will continue to incur steep losses and massive
writedowns through 2020.
As we've highlighted in the last several weeks, the global IPO and M&A markets are starting to falter -- this will further stress Vision Fund as their ability to cash out of technology unicorns are coming to an end for the year.
We even reported last week that veteran venture capitalists called an emergency meeting of the technology unicorns in Silicon Valley to advise them on the turbulent times ahead.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Albert Edwards: This Was The Final Recessionary Shoe, And It Has Now Fallen by Tyler Durden Thu, 06/27/2019 - 12:45 Exactly three months ago, in late March, the 3 month-10 year spread inverted for the first time since 2007... ちょうど3か月前の3月遅くのことだ、3M10Yスプレッドが2007年以来初めて反転した・・・・ ... an event which sparked near-panic in the market as historically curve inversion has preceded the last 7 recessions. ・・・市場は準混乱状態になった、というのも歴史的に見てイールドカーブ反転が過去7回の景気後退の前兆となっているからだ。 However, while the inversion was certainly a memorable event, the question on everyone's lips is how do risk assets perform once the curve flattens and/or inverts. According to backtests from Goldman, since the mid-1980s, significant stock drawdowns (i.e. market crashes) began only when term slope started steepening after being inverted. ...
Powell Keeps The Bond Bull Kicking Written by Lance Roberts | Mar, 21, 2019 In a widely expected outcome, the Federal Reserve announced no change to the Fed funds rate but did leave open the possibility of a rate hike next year. Also, they committed to stopping “Quantitative Tightening (or Q.T.)” by the end of September. 多くの人が予想したとおり、FEDはFFR変更をしないだけでなく来年も不明とした。さらには、QTを9月末に終えると約束した。 The key language from yesterday’s announcement was: 昨日の発表の重要な部分はこういう具合だ: “ Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market remains strong but that growth of economic activity has slowed from its solid rate in the fourth quarter . Payroll employment was little changed in February, but job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. 「1月のFOMC以来の情報を分析すると、労働市場は強いがQ4に比べると経済成長は鈍化している。2月の雇用環境にほとんど変化がなかった、ここ数ヶ月確実に雇用は増えている、そして失業率は低いままだ。 Recent indicators point to s...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう "On The Precipice" by Tyler Durden Mon, 06/24/2019 - 14:30 Authored by Kevin Ludolph via Crescat Capital, Dear Investors: The US stock market is retesting its all-time highs at record valuations yet again. We strongly believe it is poised to fail. The problem for bullish late-cycle momentum investors trying to play a breakout to new highs here is the oncoming freight train of deteriorating macro-economic conditions. 米国株式は記録的バリエーションのもとで再度過去最高を試している。私どもはこれが失敗すると強く信じている。景気拡大終盤で強気のモメンタム投資家が新高値を試そうとしていることの問題は、マクロ経済条件の悪化にある。 US corporate profit growth, year-over-year, for the S&P 500 already fully evaporated in the first quarter of 2019 and is heading toward outright decline for the full year based on earnings estimate revision trends. Note the alligator jaws divergence in the chart be...