We noted last
month that the company lost $690 million in the first six months of the
year and is expected to generate a loss from operations approaching $3
billion as it burns through tens of millions in cash daily. Analyst
estimate that the company could run out of money by mid-2020.
And now Bloomberg is reporting that WeWork's cash crunch is even more acute:
今日のブルームバーグの報告によるとWeWorkの資金枯渇はもっと差し迫るという：
Analysts had previously estimated that the company would run out of money by the middle of next year.
WeWork had been counting on an initial public offering -- and a $6
billion loan contingent on a successful IPO -- to meet its cash needs,
but that plan unraveled amid questions about its future profitability...
...it needs new financing before the end of November to avoid running out of money, two people familiar with the matter said.
・・・資金枯渇を回避するには１１月末までに新たな資金提供元が必要だ、二人の情報通が言う。
FT sources are now indicating that a potential lifeline, otherwise known as a bailout, could be imminent. FTの情報源は現在潜在的な救済元だ、ほかでもない緊急援助、これが差し迫っている。
The bailout of WeWork could be led by JPMorgan Chase and other Wall
Street banks. If no cash infusion by late November, WeWork could enter
into bankruptcy in 1H20, or by next summer.
Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings downgraded WeWork's credit
rating last week by two notches to "CCC+," putting the SoftBank funded
office-sharing company very deep into junk territory.
"In the absence of an IPO and associated senior secured debt
raise, WeWork does not have sufficient funding to meet its growth plan," Fitch wrote in a note.
Last month's decision to abandon the IPO deprived the company of $3
to $4 billion in funding and $6 billion in a loan package investment
banks promised if it went public.
Since the IPO was pulled and valuations collapsed, WeWork's WE 7.875 01-MAY-2025 junk
bond was last trading at about 82 cents on the dollar (as of Friday 6
am est., according to Tradeweb data, a massive discount to face value,
which indicates doubts the company can repay its debts.
IPOがなくなり、格付けも崩壊し、WoWorkの WE 7.875 01-MAY-2025ジャンクボンドは直近で８２セントで売買されている、額面１ドル（東部時間金曜６am、Tradewebのデータだ、額面から大幅に値引きされている、ということは当社が債務を返済できないだろうと見られている。
Without new cash, WeWork is unsustainable; the company could start
liquidating its CRE exposure as it begins the inevitable pre-bankruptcy
shrinking process -- if no cash infusion next month.
"WeWork has raised more than $12 billion to rent office space that it
renovates and then leases to companies. But that strategy has left it
in a precarious position. It has some $47 billion of future rent payments due. On
average it leases its buildings for 15 years. Yet its tenants are
committed to paying only $4 billion, and on average have leases for 15
months."
「WeWorkは＄１２B以上の資金を投じてオフィススペース改装を行い企業に貸し出す。しかし その戦略は心もとないものだ。将来の賃貸料収入は＄４７B程度だ。平均してビルを１５年貸し出す。しかしながら、テナントが約束する支払いはわずか＄４Bだ、そして平均貸し出しは１５ヶ月に過ぎない。
With the equity market window shut, and credit markets starting to crack, something that we noted on Thursday, the next question is if WeWork gets a bailout next month.
If not, the WeWork implosion of 2020 could be a spectacular mess and a massive headache for SoftBank/Vision Fund and Wall Street banks - as the company crashes from $47 billion valuation to insolvent in 2 months...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう 記事を紹介しようと訳を入れている間にFOMCが過ぎてしまいタイミングを逸してしまいました、前半は読み飛ばしてください。後半部分に関して、日本では一般会計と特別会計が別れていて政府財政がわかりにくいですが、米国は分離されておらず年金会計がより鮮明になります。＄７０Tって邦貨でいうと約７０００兆円ですからね。 Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard 07-26-19 Written by Lance Roberts | Jul, 27, 2019 Last week, we discussed the setup for a near-term mean reversion because of the massive extension above the long-term mean. To wit: 先週には、私どもは短期的な平均回帰のし掛けが出来上がっていることを議論した、というのも現在長期的な平均から極端に乖離しているからだ。見てみよう： “There is also just the simple issue that markets are very extended above their long-term trends, as shown in the chart below. A geopolitical event, a shift in expectations, or an acceleration in economic weakness in the U.S. could spark a mean-reverting event which would be quite the norm of what we have seen in recent years.” 「とてもかんたんなことだが、市場は長期的なトレンドからあまりに極端に上方乖離している、それは下のチャートを見れば明らかだ。地政学的出来事、期待値の変化、もしくは米国経済の弱さが加速するなら、平均回帰を引き起こすだろう、それは過去数年でみた典型的な相場の動きだ。」 This analysis is ...
Productivity: What It Is & Why It Matters Written by Michael Lebowitz | Jan, 16, 2019 The Kansas City Federal Reserve posted the Twitter comment and graph below highlighting a very important economic theme. Although productivity is a basic building block of economic analysis, it is one that few economists and even fewer investors seem to appreciate. Kansas 市FEDがツイッターにコメントを投稿した、そのグラフを下に示す、とても重要な経済テーマだ。経済分析においては生産性というのはとても重要な要素だが、ほとんどのエコノミストがこの件に言及しない、投資家は更にこのことを忘れ去っている。 The Kansas City Fed’s tweet is 100% correct in that wages are stagnating in large part due to low productivity growth. As the second chart shows, it is not only wages. The post financial-crisis economic expansion, despite being within months of a record for duration, is by far the weakest since WWII. Kansas City FEDのツイートは１００％正しい、給与が停滞している原因の主要因は生産性成長が低いからだ。二番目のチャートを見ても判るように、成長鈍化は給与だけではない。あの金融危機後の経済拡大は、第二次世界大戦後で記録的長期の拡大期間だが、とても弱い拡大だ。 Productivity growth over the last 350+ years is ...
この記事は投資人生を通じて有効です。 The Beginning is the End is the Beginning: A Look at Recessions Market Commentary Stocks By Liz Ann Sonders February 25, 2019 Key Points Recessions are not back-to-back negative GDP quarters; they’re instead defined using four key coincident economic indicators. 景気後退とはマイナスGDP成長四半期が連続することではない；そうではなく４つの重要経済指標で定義される。 Bear markets often overlap with recessions (and typically lead them), but not always. ベア相場は景気後退と重なることが多い（典型的には先行する）、しかし必ずそうというわけでもない。 It’s important to distinguish between leading and lagging economic indicators and to focus at least as much on trend as level. 大切なことは先行指標と遅行指標を見極めること、そしてすくなくともそのトレンドに注意せよ。 Recession chatter is abundant lately. It’s increasingly the focus of Q&A sessions at investor events at which I’ve been speaking. I also received a series of questions last week about recessions fro...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
