Authored by Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics.com, Climate has ALWAYS changed from decade to decade.
There were major swings (volatility) during the 1930s. You had the
dust bowl during the summer and in 1936 you had record cold. The 1936
North American cold wave, which also hit Japan and China, still rank
among the most intense cold waves in the recorded history of North
America. You cannot blame this on soccer moms driving the kids around town burning fossil fuels. Cars were a luxury in the 1930s still. 数十年スケールでみると気候というのは常に変化している。 1930年代にも大きな変化があった。映画「怒りの葡萄」にもでた夏の砂嵐だ、そして1936年は記録的寒さだった。1936年には北アメリカに寒波が襲来した、これは日本や中国でも観測された(訳注:2.26事件は大寒波の中で決行されました)、北アメリカでは史上最悪の寒波だった。サッカー少年の母親たちが化石燃料を焚いて子供を車で送り迎えしたことを責めることはできない。1930年代には車は高価なものだった。
There is just no evidence of human-induced climate change. There is nobody willing to call them out on this nonsense with just showing the dramatic swings in temperature over the centuries.
It’s a well-kept secret, but 95 per cent of the climate
models we are told prove the link between human CO2 emissions and
catastrophic global warming have been found, after nearly two decades of
temperature stasis, to be in error. もうこれは公然の秘密だが、世の中で議論されている気候モデルの95%はヒト由来CO2と関連付けられており、壊滅的な地球温暖化が見られると言う、もう20年も気温は変化していないにもかかわらずだ、モデルの間違いは明らかだ。
It’s not surprising.
それは驚くことではない。
We have been subjected to extravagance from climate catastrophists for close to 50 years. 我々はもう50年近くも気候大変動に不毛な議論を続けてきた。 In January 1970, Life magazine,
based on “solid scientific evidence”, claimed that by 1985 air pollution
would reduce the sunlight reaching the Earth by half. In fact, across
that period sunlight fell by between 3 per cent and 5 per cent. In a
1971 speech, Paul Ehrlich said: “If I were a gambler I would take even
money that England will not exist in the year 2000.”
Fast forward to March 2000 and David Viner, senior research scientist at the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, told The Independent,
“Snowfalls are now a thing of the past.” In December 2010, the Mail
Online reported, “Coldest December since records began as temperatures
plummet to minus 10C bringing travel chaos across Britain”.
時が経ち2000年3月には、David Viner,East Anglia大学の気象研究部門の研究者、がインデペンデント誌にこう述べた、「いまや降雪はもう昔話となってしまった」。2010年12月には、the Mail Onlineがこう伝えた、「観測史上極寒の12月でマイナス10度まで下落し英国全体が混乱状態になり始めた」。
We’ve had our own busted predictions. Perhaps the most preposterous was climate alarmist Tim Flannery’s 2005 observation:
“If the computer records are right, these drought conditions will
become permanent in eastern Australia.” Subsequent rainfall and severe
flooding have shown the records or his analysis are wrong. We’ve
swallowed dud prediction after dud prediction. What’s more, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which we were instructed was
the gold standard on global warming, has been exposed repeatedly for
misrepresentation and shoddy methods.
Weather bureaus appear to have “homogenised” data to suit
narratives. NASA’s claim that 2014 was the warmest year on record was
revised, after challenge, to only 38 per cent probability. Extreme weather events, once blamed on global warming, no longer are, as their frequency and intensity decline. Why then, with such little evidence, does the UN
insist the world spend hundreds of billions of dollars a year on futile
climate change policies? Perhaps Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the UN’s Framework on Climate Change has the answer?
In Brussels last February she said, “This is the first time in the
history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of
intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic
development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years since
the Industrial Revolution.”
In other words, the real agenda is concentrated political authority. Global warming is the hook. 言い換えると、本当の議題は政治的権力に集約される。地球温暖化は計略にすぎない。
Figueres is on record saying democracy is a poor political system for
fighting global warming. Communist China, she says, is the best model.
This is not about facts or logic. It’s about a new world order under the
control of the UN. It is opposed to capitalism and freedom and has made
environmental catastrophism a household topic to achieve its objective.
Figueres says that, unlike the Industrial Revolution, “This is a centralised transformation that is taking place.”
She sees the US partisan divide on global warming as
“very detrimental”. Of course. In her authoritarian world there will be
no room for debate or disagreement.
Make no mistake, climate change is a must-win battlefield for authoritarians and fellow travellers.
As Timothy Wirth, president of the UN Foundation, says: “Even if the
(climate change) theory is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in
terms of economic and environmental policy.”
Having gained so much ground, eco-catastrophists won’t let up. After
all, they have captured the UN and are extremely well funded. They have a
hugely powerful ally in the White House. They have successfully
enlisted compliant academics and an obedient and gullible mainstream
media (the ABC and Fairfax in Australia) to push the scriptures
regardless of evidence.
They will continue to present the climate change movement as
an independent, spontaneous consensus of concerned scientists,
politicians and citizens who believe human activity is “extremely
likely” to be the dominant cause of global warming. (“Extremely likely” is a scientific term?)
And they will keep mobilising public opinion using fear and appeals
to morality. UN support will be assured through promised wealth
redistribution from the West, even though its anti-growth policy
prescriptions will needlessly prolong poverty, hunger, sickness and
illiteracy for the world’s poorest.
Figueres said at a climate summit in Melbourne recently that she was
“truly counting on Australia’s leadership” to ensure most coal stayed
in the ground.
Hopefully, like India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Tony Abbott
isn’t listening. India knows the importance of cheap energy and is set
to overtake China as the world’s leading importer of coal. Even Germany
is about to commission the most coal-fired power stations in 20 years.
There is a real chance Figueres and those who share her centralised power ambitions will succeed.
As the UN’s December climate change conference in Paris approaches,
Australia will be pressed to sign even more futile job-destroying
climate change treaties.
Resisting will be politically difficult. But resist we
should. We are already paying an unnecessary social and economic price
for empty gestures. Enough is enough. これに抵抗するのは政治的に難しいだろう。しかし抵抗すべきだ。我々はすでに無意味な社会的経済的対価を払ってきた。もううんざりだ。
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ2週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Junk Bond Bubble In Pictures: Deflation Up Next by Tyler Durden Fri, 07/19/2019 - 14:37 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, The widely discussed "everything bubble" is, in reality, a corporate junk bond bubble on steroids sponsored by the Fed ... 幅広く議論されている「everything bubble」は実際に企業ジャンク・ボンドバブルにも言えることであり、これはFEDによりドーピング注入されている・・・ The highest grade AAA corporate bonds yield 2.75%. BBB-rated corporate bonds, just one step above junk, 3.5%. BB-rated bonds yield just 4.28%. 最高級ランクAAA企業債権の金利は2.75%だ。あとひとランク悪化でジャンク・ボンド入りするBBB債権金利は3.5%。BB格付け債権の金利でもわずか4.28%でしかない。 Corporate Bond Spreads 企業債権金利のスプレッド The spread between Prime AAA bonds and lower-medium grade bonds (see chart below) is just 0.77 percentage points. 最上位AAA債権と低中ランク債権のスプレッドがわずか0.77%しかない。 The spre...
結局、中国は隣国日本で20年前に起きたことを学んでいなかったということでしょう、というかどの国もどの政府も十分成熟するまでは「わかっちゃいるけどやめられない」ということでしょうね、きっと。 Spooked By Apple? Wait ‘Til China’s Bubble Bursts Written by Jesse Colombo | Jan, 3, 2019 Apple stock plunged nearly 10% on Thursday after the company cut its revenue forecast due to slowing iPhone sales in China. Apple’s woes dragged U.S. stock indices lower by more than 2% as fears of a more extensive China-driven slowdown spread. アップルの株価は火曜に約10%下落した、同社が中国でのiPhone売上原則を予想したためだ。アップルの弱さが米国株式指数を2%以上押し下げた、中国主導でさらなる原則が広がるのではという懸念からだ。 From the New York Times : ニューヨークタイムスによると: For years, no matter what was happening elsewhere, global companies bet billions upon billions of dollars that China’s consumers would keep spending money. 長年、他国で何が起きようとも多国籍企業は中国消費は巨額を維持することに賭けてきた。 Now, just when the world economy could use their financial firepower, they are no longer so quick to open their wallets. 今や、世界経済が金融弾薬を用いてももはや彼らの財布を緩めることはできない。 The latest sign of a slowdown in...
Gold Stocks Surge Higher Adam Hamilton February 22, 2019 2932 Words The gold miners’ stocks surged strongly this week, blasting to new upleg highs. The mounting gains are naturally driving more interest in this small contrarian sector, shifting sentiment towards bullish. Despite their accelerating rally, gold stocks still remain fairly low technically and deeply undervalued relative to gold. So their strengthening upleg likely has plenty of room to run considerably higher in coming months. 今週金鉱株は力強く上昇し新高値となった。上昇が積み上がりこの小さなコントラリアンセクターはさらに注目を集めている、これが心理を強気なものにする。ラリーが加速するが、金鉱株はテクニカル的にはまだ安値で、対ゴールドでとても過小評価されている。というわけで力強い上昇は今後数ヶ月まだかなりな上昇余地がある。 The gold miners’ stocks are ultimately leveraged plays on gold, which overwhelmingly drives their profits. The much-maligned yellow metal has enjoyed a strong upleg since mid-August, when record gold-futures s...
最後の2段落だけ訳をいれておきました。 Fed’s Risky QE4 Stock Ramp Adam Hamilton January 31, 2020 3567 Words The US stock markets dramatically surged mostly in a straight line since mid-October. This extraordinary rally started when the Federal Reserve announced it would resume expanding its balance sheet for the first time in years. The deluge of new liquidity from that quantitative-easing bond buying has again acted like rocket fuel for stock markets. After shooting vertically they are in real trouble when the Fed pulls back. In early October the flagship US S&P 500 stock index (SPX) slumped to 2888. That was a mild 4.6% pullback from late July’s latest record high. The SPX was still having a great year though, up 15.2% year-to-date at that point thanks to extreme Fed easing . After the SPX had plunged 19.8% mostly in Q4’18 in a severe near-bear cor...