Authored by Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics.com, Climate has ALWAYS changed from decade to decade.
There were major swings (volatility) during the 1930s. You had the
dust bowl during the summer and in 1936 you had record cold. The 1936
North American cold wave, which also hit Japan and China, still rank
among the most intense cold waves in the recorded history of North
America. You cannot blame this on soccer moms driving the kids around town burning fossil fuels. Cars were a luxury in the 1930s still. 数十年スケールでみると気候というのは常に変化している。 1930年代にも大きな変化があった。映画「怒りの葡萄」にもでた夏の砂嵐だ、そして1936年は記録的寒さだった。1936年には北アメリカに寒波が襲来した、これは日本や中国でも観測された(訳注:2.26事件は大寒波の中で決行されました)、北アメリカでは史上最悪の寒波だった。サッカー少年の母親たちが化石燃料を焚いて子供を車で送り迎えしたことを責めることはできない。1930年代には車は高価なものだった。
There is just no evidence of human-induced climate change. There is nobody willing to call them out on this nonsense with just showing the dramatic swings in temperature over the centuries.
It’s a well-kept secret, but 95 per cent of the climate
models we are told prove the link between human CO2 emissions and
catastrophic global warming have been found, after nearly two decades of
temperature stasis, to be in error. もうこれは公然の秘密だが、世の中で議論されている気候モデルの95%はヒト由来CO2と関連付けられており、壊滅的な地球温暖化が見られると言う、もう20年も気温は変化していないにもかかわらずだ、モデルの間違いは明らかだ。
It’s not surprising.
それは驚くことではない。
We have been subjected to extravagance from climate catastrophists for close to 50 years. 我々はもう50年近くも気候大変動に不毛な議論を続けてきた。 In January 1970, Life magazine,
based on “solid scientific evidence”, claimed that by 1985 air pollution
would reduce the sunlight reaching the Earth by half. In fact, across
that period sunlight fell by between 3 per cent and 5 per cent. In a
1971 speech, Paul Ehrlich said: “If I were a gambler I would take even
money that England will not exist in the year 2000.”
Fast forward to March 2000 and David Viner, senior research scientist at the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, told The Independent,
“Snowfalls are now a thing of the past.” In December 2010, the Mail
Online reported, “Coldest December since records began as temperatures
plummet to minus 10C bringing travel chaos across Britain”.
時が経ち2000年3月には、David Viner,East Anglia大学の気象研究部門の研究者、がインデペンデント誌にこう述べた、「いまや降雪はもう昔話となってしまった」。2010年12月には、the Mail Onlineがこう伝えた、「観測史上極寒の12月でマイナス10度まで下落し英国全体が混乱状態になり始めた」。
We’ve had our own busted predictions. Perhaps the most preposterous was climate alarmist Tim Flannery’s 2005 observation:
“If the computer records are right, these drought conditions will
become permanent in eastern Australia.” Subsequent rainfall and severe
flooding have shown the records or his analysis are wrong. We’ve
swallowed dud prediction after dud prediction. What’s more, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which we were instructed was
the gold standard on global warming, has been exposed repeatedly for
misrepresentation and shoddy methods.
Weather bureaus appear to have “homogenised” data to suit
narratives. NASA’s claim that 2014 was the warmest year on record was
revised, after challenge, to only 38 per cent probability. Extreme weather events, once blamed on global warming, no longer are, as their frequency and intensity decline. Why then, with such little evidence, does the UN
insist the world spend hundreds of billions of dollars a year on futile
climate change policies? Perhaps Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the UN’s Framework on Climate Change has the answer?
In Brussels last February she said, “This is the first time in the
history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of
intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic
development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years since
the Industrial Revolution.”
In other words, the real agenda is concentrated political authority. Global warming is the hook. 言い換えると、本当の議題は政治的権力に集約される。地球温暖化は計略にすぎない。
Figueres is on record saying democracy is a poor political system for
fighting global warming. Communist China, she says, is the best model.
This is not about facts or logic. It’s about a new world order under the
control of the UN. It is opposed to capitalism and freedom and has made
environmental catastrophism a household topic to achieve its objective.
Figueres says that, unlike the Industrial Revolution, “This is a centralised transformation that is taking place.”
She sees the US partisan divide on global warming as
“very detrimental”. Of course. In her authoritarian world there will be
no room for debate or disagreement.
Make no mistake, climate change is a must-win battlefield for authoritarians and fellow travellers.
As Timothy Wirth, president of the UN Foundation, says: “Even if the
(climate change) theory is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in
terms of economic and environmental policy.”
Having gained so much ground, eco-catastrophists won’t let up. After
all, they have captured the UN and are extremely well funded. They have a
hugely powerful ally in the White House. They have successfully
enlisted compliant academics and an obedient and gullible mainstream
media (the ABC and Fairfax in Australia) to push the scriptures
regardless of evidence.
They will continue to present the climate change movement as
an independent, spontaneous consensus of concerned scientists,
politicians and citizens who believe human activity is “extremely
likely” to be the dominant cause of global warming. (“Extremely likely” is a scientific term?)
And they will keep mobilising public opinion using fear and appeals
to morality. UN support will be assured through promised wealth
redistribution from the West, even though its anti-growth policy
prescriptions will needlessly prolong poverty, hunger, sickness and
illiteracy for the world’s poorest.
Figueres said at a climate summit in Melbourne recently that she was
“truly counting on Australia’s leadership” to ensure most coal stayed
in the ground.
Hopefully, like India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Tony Abbott
isn’t listening. India knows the importance of cheap energy and is set
to overtake China as the world’s leading importer of coal. Even Germany
is about to commission the most coal-fired power stations in 20 years.
There is a real chance Figueres and those who share her centralised power ambitions will succeed.
As the UN’s December climate change conference in Paris approaches,
Australia will be pressed to sign even more futile job-destroying
climate change treaties.
Resisting will be politically difficult. But resist we
should. We are already paying an unnecessary social and economic price
for empty gestures. Enough is enough. これに抵抗するのは政治的に難しいだろう。しかし抵抗すべきだ。我々はすでに無意味な社会的経済的対価を払ってきた。もううんざりだ。
Class 8 Heavy Truck Orders Crash 68% in January by Tyler Durden Wed, 02/06/2019 - 17:25 Among the latest dismal news about the strength of the US economy, on Tuesday ACT Research released preliminary truck orders for January 2019 which showed that Class 8 truck orders collapsed an astounding 68% for January. The decline is being attributed to a 300,000+ vehicle backlog potentially prompting fleets to halt purchases in the near term. 米国経済に関し最近憂鬱なニュースが多い中で、火曜にACT researchが2019年1月のトラック発注を開示した、1月にClass 8のトラック発注がなんと68%も急落した。この発注減は短期的に300,000台超の潜在在庫を生み出す。 Specifically, in January Class 8 net orders were 15,800 units (14,700 SA; 176,400 SAAR), down 68% YoY and down 26% MoM. Class 5- 7 January net orders were 23,400...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ2週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう "On The Precipice" by Tyler Durden Mon, 06/24/2019 - 14:30 Authored by Kevin Ludolph via Crescat Capital, Dear Investors: The US stock market is retesting its all-time highs at record valuations yet again. We strongly believe it is poised to fail. The problem for bullish late-cycle momentum investors trying to play a breakout to new highs here is the oncoming freight train of deteriorating macro-economic conditions. 米国株式は記録的バリエーションのもとで再度過去最高を試している。私どもはこれが失敗すると強く信じている。景気拡大終盤で強気のモメンタム投資家が新高値を試そうとしていることの問題は、マクロ経済条件の悪化にある。 US corporate profit growth, year-over-year, for the S&P 500 already fully evaporated in the first quarter of 2019 and is heading toward outright decline for the full year based on earnings estimate revision trends. Note the alligator jaws divergence in the chart be...
中国が債務増加していることはたしかです。ただ日本の例を日銀資金循環報告でみると家計、320兆円、民間非金融機関1,785兆円、一般政府 1,284兆円となります。合算すると3,300兆円にもなり、GDPの600%を超えています。 https://www.boj.or.jp/statistics/sj/sjexp.pdf この記事の統計と同じ考え方で数値を採用しているのかどうか気になります。 加えて、この資金循環報告に書かれている海外資産というのが内数なのか外数なのか?私にはよくわかりません。当然海外債務も結構な額になります。一度日銀資金循環 図表1を見てください。詳しい方に教えていただければ。 この中国のたどる道は昔のソ連とかMMTと同様で、自国通貨ならいくら発行しても倒産はしない、というか為政者が痛みに耐えることができず緩和を続けるというものです。でも最終的には限界点に達します。ソ連は建国から崩壊まで70年かかりました。 自由主義経済なら立ち行かなくなった企業は退場してもらうというのが減速なのですが、これがうまくゆかないわけです。 でも日本は中国のはるか先を言っているように見えます。ちょっと検索したのですが、日本の債務に関しては政府債務に言及したものばかりで、この記事のように民間、個人まで総合的に記載しているのは日銀の資金循環統計しか見つけることができませんでした。 China Continues To Pile Debt On Top Of More Debt Written by Jesse Colombo | Feb, 27, 2019 Like many countries, China attempted to rein in its debt growth over the past couple years, but ultimately gave up and is now back to piling on even more debt. Bloomberg reports – 多くの国と同様に、中国もここ2年ほど債務増加を抑えようとしてきた、しかし結局の所諦めてしまい、今や更に債務を積み上げている。ブルームバーグ記事ーー For almost two years,...