最新NewYorkFED　景気後退予想

「この記事が面白いと思うなら、Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう」

 米国債の金利差から一年後の景気後退入り可能性を推測したもの。
１９７０年代８０年代はFFRが１０％を超えていたために数値がとても大きくなっている。
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf

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銀鉱株の潜在力は大きい by Zeal

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最後の２段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton     February 7, 2020     2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting.  While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact.  Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September.  And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher.  When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners.  As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity.  For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult.  ...
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地球温暖化論のデタラメを図解

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Global Warming Fraud Exposed In Pictures by Tyler Durden Tue, 10/01/2019 - 12:25 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Climate change alarmists have convinced the public something must be done now. The reports are easily debunked as fraud ... 気候変動主張者たちは今行動を実行せねばと確信している。その手の報告書はでたらめだということが簡単に解る・・・・ My Gift To Climate Alarmists 気候変動活動家への贈り物 Tony Heller does an amazing job of showing  how  the fraud takes place in his video entitled My Gift To Climate Alarmists. Tony Heller は素晴らしい仕事をした、このビデオを見ると彼らの主張が如何にでたらめかということがよく分かる、そのタイトルは My Gift To Climate Alarmists。 The video is only 12.51 minutes long. このビデオはわずか１２．５１分しかない。（訳注：画像・動画がいっぱいで英語がわからなくても理解できる） Cherry Picking 例を上げると Heatwaves increasing since 1960 熱波発生は１９６０年以降増えているという Arctic ice declining since 1979 北極海氷は１９７９年以来減っているという Wildfires increa...
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９月のクラス８大型トラック発注は７１％減

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「この記事が面白いと思うなら、 Amaz onで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう 」 September Class 8 Heavy Duty Truck Orders Collapse 71% by Tyler Durden Fri, 10/04/2019 - 13:10 Preliminary Class 8 order data for September is starting to trickle in and, like the data preceding it so far this year - it's ugly.  クラス８トラック発注がことしのこれまでと同様にひどい。 Class 8 orders were crushed 71% in September, reaching 12,600 units, according to Baird and Morgan Stanley.  ９月にクラス８トラック発注が７１％下落し、１２，６００台となった、Baird and Morgan Stanleyのデータだ。 This follows a 79% plunge in August. ８月の７９％下落に次ぐ悪さだ。 This makes September the 11th consecutive month of YOY order declines and the 9th consecutive month of orders below 20,000. この９月で１１か月連続でYoY発注が下落している、また９か月連続で２０，０００台を下回った。 Class 8 orde...
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COMEX デジタルゴールドの需要と供給

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Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Supply and Demand in Comex Digital Gold by Sprott Money Thu, 07/04/2019 - 09:32 Supply and Demand in Comex Digital Gold Written by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money News A few years ago, we wrote the salient article on the subject of derivative supply and demand on Comex. Given the recent price breakout and sentiment change, it's likely a good idea to re-visit this topic today. 数年前のことだが、私どもはCOMXの派生商品の需給に関する注目記事を書いた。最近の価格ブレークアウトと心理変化もあり、この話題を再度今取り上げるのが良かろう。 The post from 2017 dealt with Comex silver and the original link is below. However, since it is extremely important that you understand this dynamic, I'm going to ask the folks at Sprott Money to reprint the post in its entirely at the bottom of this page. Please take the time to read and study this full article: ２０１７年の記事はCOMEXシルバーに関するもので、その時のリ...
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雇用統計が教えるものーー経済は鈍化している

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The Message From The Jobs Report – The Economy Is Slowing Written by Lance Roberts | Apr, 8, 2019 Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the March monthly “employment report” which showed an increase in employment of 196,000 jobs. As Mike Shedlock noted on Friday: 先週、BLSが３月の月例「雇用統計」を発表した、雇用が１９６，０００増えたという。Mike Shedlockは金曜にこう書いた： “The change in total non-farm payroll employment for January was revised up from +311,000 to +312,000, and the change for February was revised up from +20,000 to +33,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 14,000 more than previously reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 180,000 per month over the last 3 months. 「１月全非農業雇用は＋３１１，０００から＋３１２，０００に改定された、２月のデータは＋２０，０００から＋３３，０００に改定された。これらの改定で１月と２月を合算した雇用増は以前の報告よりも１４，０００多くなった。改定後でみると、雇用増は直近三ヶ月で平均１８０，０００／月となる。 BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance BLS　雇用統計概観 Nonfarm Payroll : +196,000 – Establishment Survey Emp...
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