Before
the next recession strikes and valuations reset, who around the world
will be the next bag holder? The Chinese have understood in the last
several years, it could be them. Their recent acquisitions of foreign
companies were paid at hefty premiums, and now, it seems that with an
imminent global trade recession, these folks are ready to dump.
次の景気後退とバリュエーション見直し前に、世界中の bag holder (無用資産持ち手)となるのは誰だろう?ここ数年それは中国がそうかもと思われていた。ここ数年の彼らの海外企業買収には巨額なプレミアムが盛り込まれていた、今になり、世界貿易景気後退が差し迫り、彼らは投げ出そうとしている。
Bloomberg
outlines a significant problem. Since the Chinese overpaid for many
foreign companies in the last several years, volatile markets across the
world have made it impossible at the moment to sell for the right
price.
Since the ability to offload some of these companies through public
markets has shut in 2019, one needs to look at the IPO implosion in the
US, as these companies are now trying to reduce their debt piles, which
is an acknowledgment that bad times are ahead.
Ferretti SpA, an Italian superyacht maker, owned by China's
SHIG–Weichai Group, shelved its IPO last week. Ferretti blamed
macroeconomic headwinds for the dealy, as the IPO was seen as a way for
SHIG–Weichai Group's to cash out of its position in the company.
Since the trade war began a little over 15 months ago between the US
and China, the Chinese have been selling assets across the world to
build liquidity as domestic capital controls become tighter.
The global IPO and M&A markets are slowing,
something we recently highlighted, has made it much more difficult for
Chinese firms to sell foreign companies and assets in 2H19.
"It's a big process of adjustment," Mark Webster, managing director
at BDA Partners in Shanghai, told Bloomberg in a phone interview. "Some
Chinese companies made overseas acquisitions at the top of the cycle and
ended up overpaying for assets that did not make a lot of strategic
sense. They are now finding it challenging to offload those businesses
at fair values."
「今はまさに調整時期だ、」と上海のBDA Partnersの取締役 Mark Websterはブルームバーグに告げた。「中国企業の中にはサイクルの天井で海外資産を買い取ったところもある、とても戦略的とは思えないような価格で支払い過ぎた。彼らは今になってフェアバリューでそういうビジネスを手放そうとしている。」
Another example of Chinese firms attempting to liquidate companies is
PizzaExpress Ltd., a UK casual dining chain acquired by Chinese private
equity firm Hony Capital in 2014.
Sources told Bloomberg that PizzaExpress had hired a financial
adviser to prepare debt talks with creditors. There's also a possibility
that advisors are preparing the company for a sale.
Data compiled by Bloomberg shows the volume of Chinese outbound deals
dropped to $59 billion so far this year, down 13% over last year, and
well off 2016 high.
It's only a matter of time before Chinese firms become forced sellers
of Western companies, only to realize that there will be no buyers at
the valuations they paid several years ago, as forced selling will then
crush valuations.
最後の2段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton February 7, 2020 2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting. While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact. Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September. And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher. When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners. As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity. For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult. ...
Global Warming Fraud Exposed In Pictures by Tyler Durden Tue, 10/01/2019 - 12:25 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Climate change alarmists have convinced the public something must be done now. The reports are easily debunked as fraud ... 気候変動主張者たちは今行動を実行せねばと確信している。その手の報告書はでたらめだということが簡単に解る・・・・ My Gift To Climate Alarmists 気候変動活動家への贈り物 Tony Heller does an amazing job of showing how the fraud takes place in his video entitled My Gift To Climate Alarmists. Tony Heller は素晴らしい仕事をした、このビデオを見ると彼らの主張が如何にでたらめかということがよく分かる、そのタイトルは My Gift To Climate Alarmists。 The video is only 12.51 minutes long. このビデオはわずか12.51分しかない。(訳注:画像・動画がいっぱいで英語がわからなくても理解できる) Cherry Picking 例を上げると Heatwaves increasing since 1960 熱波発生は1960年以降増えているという Arctic ice declining since 1979 北極海氷は1979年以来減っているという Wildfires increa...
「この記事が面白いと思うなら、 Amaz onで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう 」 September Class 8 Heavy Duty Truck Orders Collapse 71% by Tyler Durden Fri, 10/04/2019 - 13:10 Preliminary Class 8 order data for September is starting to trickle in and, like the data preceding it so far this year - it's ugly. クラス8トラック発注がことしのこれまでと同様にひどい。 Class 8 orders were crushed 71% in September, reaching 12,600 units, according to Baird and Morgan Stanley. 9月にクラス8トラック発注が71%下落し、12,600台となった、Baird and Morgan Stanleyのデータだ。 This follows a 79% plunge in August. 8月の79%下落に次ぐ悪さだ。 This makes September the 11th consecutive month of YOY order declines and the 9th consecutive month of orders below 20,000. この9月で11か月連続でYoY発注が下落している、また9か月連続で20,000台を下回った。 Class 8 orde...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Supply and Demand in Comex Digital Gold by Sprott Money Thu, 07/04/2019 - 09:32 Supply and Demand in Comex Digital Gold Written by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money News A few years ago, we wrote the salient article on the subject of derivative supply and demand on Comex. Given the recent price breakout and sentiment change, it's likely a good idea to re-visit this topic today. 数年前のことだが、私どもはCOMXの派生商品の需給に関する注目記事を書いた。最近の価格ブレークアウトと心理変化もあり、この話題を再度今取り上げるのが良かろう。 The post from 2017 dealt with Comex silver and the original link is below. However, since it is extremely important that you understand this dynamic, I'm going to ask the folks at Sprott Money to reprint the post in its entirely at the bottom of this page. Please take the time to read and study this full article: 2017年の記事はCOMEXシルバーに関するもので、その時のリ...
The Message From The Jobs Report – The Economy Is Slowing Written by Lance Roberts | Apr, 8, 2019 Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the March monthly “employment report” which showed an increase in employment of 196,000 jobs. As Mike Shedlock noted on Friday: 先週、BLSが3月の月例「雇用統計」を発表した、雇用が196,000増えたという。Mike Shedlockは金曜にこう書いた: “The change in total non-farm payroll employment for January was revised up from +311,000 to +312,000, and the change for February was revised up from +20,000 to +33,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 14,000 more than previously reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 180,000 per month over the last 3 months. 「1月全非農業雇用は+311,000から+312,000に改定された、2月のデータは+20,000から+33,000に改定された。これらの改定で1月と2月を合算した雇用増は以前の報告よりも14,000多くなった。改定後でみると、雇用増は直近三ヶ月で平均180,000/月となる。 BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance BLS 雇用統計概観 Nonfarm Payroll : +196,000 – Establishment Survey Emp...