Before
the next recession strikes and valuations reset, who around the world
will be the next bag holder? The Chinese have understood in the last
several years, it could be them. Their recent acquisitions of foreign
companies were paid at hefty premiums, and now, it seems that with an
imminent global trade recession, these folks are ready to dump.
次の景気後退とバリュエーション見直し前に、世界中の bag holder (無用資産持ち手)となるのは誰だろう?ここ数年それは中国がそうかもと思われていた。ここ数年の彼らの海外企業買収には巨額なプレミアムが盛り込まれていた、今になり、世界貿易景気後退が差し迫り、彼らは投げ出そうとしている。
Bloomberg
outlines a significant problem. Since the Chinese overpaid for many
foreign companies in the last several years, volatile markets across the
world have made it impossible at the moment to sell for the right
price.
Since the ability to offload some of these companies through public
markets has shut in 2019, one needs to look at the IPO implosion in the
US, as these companies are now trying to reduce their debt piles, which
is an acknowledgment that bad times are ahead.
Ferretti SpA, an Italian superyacht maker, owned by China's
SHIG–Weichai Group, shelved its IPO last week. Ferretti blamed
macroeconomic headwinds for the dealy, as the IPO was seen as a way for
SHIG–Weichai Group's to cash out of its position in the company.
Since the trade war began a little over 15 months ago between the US
and China, the Chinese have been selling assets across the world to
build liquidity as domestic capital controls become tighter.
The global IPO and M&A markets are slowing,
something we recently highlighted, has made it much more difficult for
Chinese firms to sell foreign companies and assets in 2H19.
"It's a big process of adjustment," Mark Webster, managing director
at BDA Partners in Shanghai, told Bloomberg in a phone interview. "Some
Chinese companies made overseas acquisitions at the top of the cycle and
ended up overpaying for assets that did not make a lot of strategic
sense. They are now finding it challenging to offload those businesses
at fair values."
「今はまさに調整時期だ、」と上海のBDA Partnersの取締役 Mark Websterはブルームバーグに告げた。「中国企業の中にはサイクルの天井で海外資産を買い取ったところもある、とても戦略的とは思えないような価格で支払い過ぎた。彼らは今になってフェアバリューでそういうビジネスを手放そうとしている。」
Another example of Chinese firms attempting to liquidate companies is
PizzaExpress Ltd., a UK casual dining chain acquired by Chinese private
equity firm Hony Capital in 2014.
Sources told Bloomberg that PizzaExpress had hired a financial
adviser to prepare debt talks with creditors. There's also a possibility
that advisors are preparing the company for a sale.
Data compiled by Bloomberg shows the volume of Chinese outbound deals
dropped to $59 billion so far this year, down 13% over last year, and
well off 2016 high.
It's only a matter of time before Chinese firms become forced sellers
of Western companies, only to realize that there will be no buyers at
the valuations they paid several years ago, as forced selling will then
crush valuations.
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを7時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、2018年の最後の3ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
後講釈なんですが、6月option(5月28日 expire)の$2400 Call Optionが out of the moneyになりました。6月optionは特にOpen Interest が大きい。きっかけはFED高官の発言のようですが、Option Writerにはまちかまえていたものでしょう。 ただ、これも今月末のexpireをすぎれば圧力は無くなると思います。