Before
the next recession strikes and valuations reset, who around the world
will be the next bag holder? The Chinese have understood in the last
several years, it could be them. Their recent acquisitions of foreign
companies were paid at hefty premiums, and now, it seems that with an
imminent global trade recession, these folks are ready to dump.
次の景気後退とバリュエーション見直し前に、世界中の bag holder (無用資産持ち手)となるのは誰だろう?ここ数年それは中国がそうかもと思われていた。ここ数年の彼らの海外企業買収には巨額なプレミアムが盛り込まれていた、今になり、世界貿易景気後退が差し迫り、彼らは投げ出そうとしている。
Bloomberg
outlines a significant problem. Since the Chinese overpaid for many
foreign companies in the last several years, volatile markets across the
world have made it impossible at the moment to sell for the right
price.
Since the ability to offload some of these companies through public
markets has shut in 2019, one needs to look at the IPO implosion in the
US, as these companies are now trying to reduce their debt piles, which
is an acknowledgment that bad times are ahead.
Ferretti SpA, an Italian superyacht maker, owned by China's
SHIG–Weichai Group, shelved its IPO last week. Ferretti blamed
macroeconomic headwinds for the dealy, as the IPO was seen as a way for
SHIG–Weichai Group's to cash out of its position in the company.
Since the trade war began a little over 15 months ago between the US
and China, the Chinese have been selling assets across the world to
build liquidity as domestic capital controls become tighter.
The global IPO and M&A markets are slowing,
something we recently highlighted, has made it much more difficult for
Chinese firms to sell foreign companies and assets in 2H19.
"It's a big process of adjustment," Mark Webster, managing director
at BDA Partners in Shanghai, told Bloomberg in a phone interview. "Some
Chinese companies made overseas acquisitions at the top of the cycle and
ended up overpaying for assets that did not make a lot of strategic
sense. They are now finding it challenging to offload those businesses
at fair values."
「今はまさに調整時期だ、」と上海のBDA Partnersの取締役 Mark Websterはブルームバーグに告げた。「中国企業の中にはサイクルの天井で海外資産を買い取ったところもある、とても戦略的とは思えないような価格で支払い過ぎた。彼らは今になってフェアバリューでそういうビジネスを手放そうとしている。」
Another example of Chinese firms attempting to liquidate companies is
PizzaExpress Ltd., a UK casual dining chain acquired by Chinese private
equity firm Hony Capital in 2014.
Sources told Bloomberg that PizzaExpress had hired a financial
adviser to prepare debt talks with creditors. There's also a possibility
that advisors are preparing the company for a sale.
Data compiled by Bloomberg shows the volume of Chinese outbound deals
dropped to $59 billion so far this year, down 13% over last year, and
well off 2016 high.
It's only a matter of time before Chinese firms become forced sellers
of Western companies, only to realize that there will be no buyers at
the valuations they paid several years ago, as forced selling will then
crush valuations.
Is The Stock Market As Confused As You Are About A Recession? Written by Lance Roberts | Apr, 1, 2019 Last week, Barron’s ran an article entitled “The Stock Market Is Just As Confused About A Potential Recession As You Are?” To wit: 先週バロンズにこういう記事が掲載された「株式市場は景気後退を予感させるほどに混乱しているだろうか?」見てみよう: “Investors have long used where we are in the economic cycle to decide which stocks to buy and sell. New research from Nomura’s Joseph Mezrich flips that on its head by showing how investors can use stock performance to help determine where we are in the cycle. Too bad the market is sending mixed messages right now.” 長らく投資家は現在景気サイクルのどこに居るかを見てこの株式を売るか買うかを判断してきた。野村證券のJoseph Mezrichの最近の研究では、これが逆さで、投資家は株式のパフォーマンスを見て今景気サイクルのどこにいるかを判断している。最悪なことに現在相場は悪化改善混在のメッセージを送っている。」 But let’s be clear here; no one wants the party to end. So, despite a struggling stock market over the last year, slowing economic growth, and a collapsing yield curve, there are s...
How Are Gold And Money Supply Related? by Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2020 - 13:00 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, M2 Money Supply is surging. Will gold follow? M2マネーサプライが急増している。ゴールドはこれを追従するだろうか? Let's investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US. よく言われるM2(米国のマネーサプライ指標)とゴールドの関係について調べてみよう。 "There’s a clear correlation between the annual growth rate in M2 money supply and the price of the yellow metal. " 「M2の年率増加速度とゴールド価格の間には明らかな相関がある。」 Clear Correlation? 明らかな相関? The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let's investigate the above idea in other time frames. このツイートの主張は私が示す最初のチャートが示すものとは異なる。というわけでこのtweetの主張を別の時間フレームで見てみよう。 Gold vs Rate of Change in M2 Money Supply ゴールド vs M2マネーサプライの変化率 If we look at longer time frames, the rate of increase in M2 theory falls flat on its face....
China Injects Gargantuan 1.1 Trillion In Liquidity This Week by Tyler Durden Wed, 01/16/2019 - 22:19 Following what Bloomberg calculated was a record net reverse repo liquidity injection on Wednesday, when the PBOC injected a whopping 560 billion yuan of liquidity into the financial system via open market operations, the Chinese central bank has done it again and in Thursday's open market operation, it sold 250BN yuan in 7 Day repos (slightly below yesterday's record 350BN), and 150BN in 28 Day repos, which net of maturities resulted in a whopping net 380BN yuan ($56.2BN) liquidity injection. ブルームバーグの算出によると水曜に記録的なリバースレポ流動性注入が行われた、PBOCがなんと公開市場操作で金融システムになんと560B人民元を注入した、中国中央銀行は再び木曜に公開市場操作を行った、250B人民元の7日決済レポを売却した(昨日の350B人民元よりも少し少ない)、そして28日決済のレポを150B人民元注入した、結果としてなんと380B人民元($56.2B)の流動性注入となる。 (訳注:なんか足し算すると辻褄が合いません、ブルーム...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Albert Edwards: This Was The Final Recessionary Shoe, And It Has Now Fallen by Tyler Durden Thu, 06/27/2019 - 12:45 Exactly three months ago, in late March, the 3 month-10 year spread inverted for the first time since 2007... ちょうど3か月前の3月遅くのことだ、3M10Yスプレッドが2007年以来初めて反転した・・・・ ... an event which sparked near-panic in the market as historically curve inversion has preceded the last 7 recessions. ・・・市場は準混乱状態になった、というのも歴史的に見てイールドカーブ反転が過去7回の景気後退の前兆となっているからだ。 However, while the inversion was certainly a memorable event, the question on everyone's lips is how do risk assets perform once the curve flattens and/or inverts. According to backtests from Goldman, since the mid-1980s, significant stock drawdowns (i.e. market crashes) began only when term slope started steepening after being inverted. ...