Before
the next recession strikes and valuations reset, who around the world
will be the next bag holder? The Chinese have understood in the last
several years, it could be them. Their recent acquisitions of foreign
companies were paid at hefty premiums, and now, it seems that with an
imminent global trade recession, these folks are ready to dump.
次の景気後退とバリュエーション見直し前に、世界中の bag holder (無用資産持ち手)となるのは誰だろう?ここ数年それは中国がそうかもと思われていた。ここ数年の彼らの海外企業買収には巨額なプレミアムが盛り込まれていた、今になり、世界貿易景気後退が差し迫り、彼らは投げ出そうとしている。
Bloomberg
outlines a significant problem. Since the Chinese overpaid for many
foreign companies in the last several years, volatile markets across the
world have made it impossible at the moment to sell for the right
price.
Since the ability to offload some of these companies through public
markets has shut in 2019, one needs to look at the IPO implosion in the
US, as these companies are now trying to reduce their debt piles, which
is an acknowledgment that bad times are ahead.
Ferretti SpA, an Italian superyacht maker, owned by China's
SHIG–Weichai Group, shelved its IPO last week. Ferretti blamed
macroeconomic headwinds for the dealy, as the IPO was seen as a way for
SHIG–Weichai Group's to cash out of its position in the company.
Since the trade war began a little over 15 months ago between the US
and China, the Chinese have been selling assets across the world to
build liquidity as domestic capital controls become tighter.
The global IPO and M&A markets are slowing,
something we recently highlighted, has made it much more difficult for
Chinese firms to sell foreign companies and assets in 2H19.
"It's a big process of adjustment," Mark Webster, managing director
at BDA Partners in Shanghai, told Bloomberg in a phone interview. "Some
Chinese companies made overseas acquisitions at the top of the cycle and
ended up overpaying for assets that did not make a lot of strategic
sense. They are now finding it challenging to offload those businesses
at fair values."
「今はまさに調整時期だ、」と上海のBDA Partnersの取締役 Mark Websterはブルームバーグに告げた。「中国企業の中にはサイクルの天井で海外資産を買い取ったところもある、とても戦略的とは思えないような価格で支払い過ぎた。彼らは今になってフェアバリューでそういうビジネスを手放そうとしている。」
Another example of Chinese firms attempting to liquidate companies is
PizzaExpress Ltd., a UK casual dining chain acquired by Chinese private
equity firm Hony Capital in 2014.
Sources told Bloomberg that PizzaExpress had hired a financial
adviser to prepare debt talks with creditors. There's also a possibility
that advisors are preparing the company for a sale.
Data compiled by Bloomberg shows the volume of Chinese outbound deals
dropped to $59 billion so far this year, down 13% over last year, and
well off 2016 high.
It's only a matter of time before Chinese firms become forced sellers
of Western companies, only to realize that there will be no buyers at
the valuations they paid several years ago, as forced selling will then
crush valuations.
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一定のエネルギーが外部から流入する系ではその流入量が普遍一定でも、散逸構造、自己組織化をすることが知られています。散逸構造では空間時間的な周期構造が生じます。たとえば隔離された無人島にうさぎときつねを放した場合、時間とともに均衡値に近づきますが、完全な定常状態にはならずその前後で周期的な変動が起きます、うさぎを捕食しすぎてが減るとキツネの食料が減りキツネの個体数上昇には限界が生じ、その後うさぎの個体数が増えます。うさぎの数もその島の植物総量に限界があります。 株式市場にも30年前後のバリュエーション変動があります。管理人はこの原因はたぶん投資家の世代交代に起因するものだと感じています。多くの人の投資寿命は30年前後です。私を含めて現在投資をしている人は英國や日本で政府債務解消のための金融抑圧など記憶にもないでしょう、学校の歴史でも教えてくれません。あの米国でも金本位制のなかで国民からゴールドを強制買い上げし、ゴールド価格を改定したり個人がゴールド保有を長年禁止していたことを多くの人は知らないでしょう。少なくとも私は学校の歴史で習った覚えがありません。 また大統領任期に関連した8年前後の変動があります、政党は政権を維持するために選挙に向けて財政刺激策を行いますが選挙後にはこれが息切れします。大統領選挙前数ヶ月の株価動向と選挙結果、民主共和転換、の相関は90%を超えています。トランプのときもそうでした、YellenはFRB議長としては珍しい熱心な民主党員で、FEDバランスシート正常化の先送り、二回目の金利引き上げの先送りをしたのですが、2016年秋には株価が徐々に下落してしまいました。 次に短いのが1年の変動で気候に関する人の気分や新学期・新年度に関するものです。もっと短いのが週間の変動で、月曜や金曜は特異的な動きをします。こういう繰り返しは左の参考図書「市場のサイクルは永遠に」に解説されています。 Are We In A Secular Bull Market? Written by Lance Roberts | Jan, 7, 2019 Just recently, Jeff Saut from Raymond James made a very interesting statement with re...