コントラリアンJ

Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Gold-Stock Decisive Breakout! Adam Hamilton     June 28, 2019     2786 Words The gold miners’ stocks just blasted higher to a major decisive breakout this week!  Driven by gold’s own huge bull-market breakout, the gold stocks surged well above vexing years-old upper resistance.  The resulting new multi-year highs are a game changer, starting to shift long-apathetic sector sentiment back towards bullish.  This will increasingly attract back traders, with their buying unleashing a virtuous circle of gains. 今週、金鉱株は決定的なブレークアウトで値を上げた！ゴールド自身のブル相場ブレークアウトに伴い、金鉱株は長年の上値抵抗線を超えて急騰したのだ。結果として数年ぶりの高値となりこれがゲームチェンジャーとなる、長年元気のなかったセクターに強気心理が蘇った、これがトレーダーの興味を復活させ、彼らの買いが正帰還を引き起こして値を上げる。  　 Traders usually track gold-stock fortunes with this sector’s most-popular exchange-traded fund, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Launched in May 2006, th...

Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Kyle Bass: Massive "Pig Ebola" Epidemic Gives Trump Big Leverage In China Trade Deal by Tyler Durden Thu, 06/27/2019 - 20:45 Authored by Kyle Bass and Daniel Babich, op-ed via The Daily Caller, Our advice to President Trump ahead of the next stage in the U.S.-China trade talks is encapsulated in a Chinese proverb: “ Patience  is a bitter plant, but its fruit is sweet.” 私どもはトランプ大統領に米中貿易交渉の次の段階でこういうふうにアドバイスしよう、中国の諺に基づいている：「忍耐は苦い苗木だ、しかしその果実は甘いものだ。」 The threat to food availability and security from Chinese pig Ebola and fall armyworm will prevent China from aggressively using tariffs as an offensive weapon against the U.S. over the coming year. Just as the poor structure of China’s leveraged economy necessitates that they return to the negotiating table with the U.S. ⁠— the l...

Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Albert Edwards: This Was The Final Recessionary Shoe, And It Has Now Fallen by Tyler Durden Thu, 06/27/2019 - 12:45 Exactly three months ago, in late March, the 3 month-10 year spread inverted for the first time since 2007... ちょうど３か月前の３月遅くのことだ、３M10Yスプレッドが２００７年以来初めて反転した・・・・ ... an event which sparked near-panic in the market as historically curve inversion has preceded the last 7 recessions. ・・・市場は準混乱状態になった、というのも歴史的に見てイールドカーブ反転が過去７回の景気後退の前兆となっているからだ。 However, while the inversion was certainly a memorable event, the question on everyone's lips is how do risk assets perform once the curve flattens and/or inverts. According to backtests from Goldman, since the mid-1980s, significant stock drawdowns (i.e. market crashes) began only when term slope started steepening after being inverted. ...

Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう "On The Precipice" by Tyler Durden Mon, 06/24/2019 - 14:30 Authored by Kevin Ludolph via Crescat Capital, Dear Investors: The US stock market is retesting its all-time highs at record valuations yet again. We strongly believe it is poised to fail. The problem for bullish late-cycle momentum investors trying to play a breakout to new highs here is the oncoming freight train of deteriorating macro-economic conditions. 米国株式は記録的バリエーションのもとで再度過去最高を試している。私どもはこれが失敗すると強く信じている。景気拡大終盤で強気のモメンタム投資家が新高値を試そうとしていることの問題は、マクロ経済条件の悪化にある。 US corporate profit growth, year-over-year, for the S&P 500 already fully evaporated in the first quarter of 2019 and is heading toward outright decline for the full year based on earnings estimate revision trends. Note the alligator jaws divergence in the chart be...