コントラリアンJ

"At First We Didn't Believe It": Fast-Melting Greenland Glacier Starts Growing Again In Massive U-Turn by Tyler Durden Thu, 03/28/2019 - 18:45 A large and fast-melting glacier in Greenland is growing again, according to a new NASA study. The Jakobshavn (YA-cob-shawv-en) glacier on Greenland's west coast had reportedly been retreating by around 1.8 miles and thinning by nearly 130 feet annually in 2012. 急速に溶けていたグリーンランドの巨大表ががまた成長し始めた、最新NASA研究データだ。グリーンランド西岸のJakobshavn(YA-con-shawn-en)氷河は２０１２年には年率で１．８マイル後退し１３０フィート薄くなっていた。 May 30, 2012, photo shows an iceberg in or just outside the Ilulissat fjord that likely calved from the Jakobshavn glacier in west Greenland. (Ian Joughin/Associated Press) According to ...

Worst Start To A Year For Jobless In A Decade by Tyler Durden Thu, 03/28/2019 - 15:27 Something's not quite right... 何か全くおかしい・・・ With economic data disappointing en masse and US equity earnings expectations plummeting, talking heads have one last leg left on the stool of buy-and-hold - jobs, jobs, jobs! The unemployment rate (low), participation rate (people coming back into the workforce), wage growth (rising at fastest pace in 10 years), initial jobless claims (back near multi-decade lows), and JOLTS (more jobs offered than people available). 経済データは大きく失望するものであり、米国株式予想収益は下落している、皆が buy-and-holdで気になるのは、雇用、雇用、雇用だ！　失業率（これは低い）、労働参加率（労働力に戻り始めている）、給与（この１０年でもっとも急速に増えてる）、新規失業率申請数（ここ数十年来の低位だ）、そしてJOLTS求人労働異動調査（求職よりも求人が多い）。 ...

GDP Data Tells You Nothing About Recession Risk  by Tyler Durden Wed, 03/27/2019 - 19:05 via ECRI Real-time GDP data can be highly misleading around business cycle turning points. This is especially true in the lead-up to recessions. リアルタイムのGDP予想データを見る限り、ビジネスサイクル転換点においては、誤解を引き起こす可能性がとても高い。これは特に景気後退前に言えることだ。 On the verge of the 2001 recession, in February 2001, the real-time data showed GDP growth declining to 1.1% (green line). But with the Fed cutting rates, the S&P 500 saw a one-and-a-half-month 19% spurt in April-May, even as the recession tightened its grip. ２００１年の景気後退入り直前の２００１年２月には、リアルタイムデータではGDP成長率は１．１％下落だった（緑）。しかしFEDが金利を引き下げ、S&P500が４、５月の１．５か月で１９％上昇した、もう景気後退が差し迫るにもかかわらずだ。 And in November 2007, on the cusp of the Great Recession, real-time data showed GDP growth surging to 4.9% (red line). Only in the yea...

Gold - Preparing For The Next Move by Tyler Durden Fri, 03/22/2019 - 05:00 Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com, Note: this article is not and must not be construed as investment advice. It is analysis based purely on economic theory and empirical evidence. この記事は単なる分析であり、投資を推奨するものではない。 The global economic outlook is deteriorating. Government borrowing in the deficit countries will therefore escalate. US Treasury TIC data confirms foreigners have already begun to liquidate dollar assets, adding to the US Government’s future funding difficulties. The next wave of monetary inflation, required to fund budget deficits and keep banks solvent, will not prevent financial assets suffering a severe bear market, because the scale of monetary dilution will be so large that the purchasing power of the dollar and other currencies will ...

The mid-tier gold miners continue to prove all-important production growth is doable off smaller bases.  With a handful of mines or less to operate, mid-tiers can focus on expanding them or building a new mine to boost their output beyond depletion.  But the majors are increasingly failing to do this with the super-high production bases they operate at.  As long as the majors are struggling, it’s prudent to avoid them. 中規模金鉱会社は引き続き生産量を増やしている、これは小さいからこそできることだ。運用する鉱山は数えるほどしか無く、中規模鉱山は既存鉱山の拡張と新規鉱山建設に注力し、枯渇を補って生産量を増やしている。しかし大手はその基準があまりに大きくこれがうまくできない。大手が格闘している間は、これを避けるのが投資規律というものだ。 GDXJ investors would be better served if this ETF contained  no major gold miners  producing over 250k ounces a quarter on average.  They still command nearly 1/5th of its weighting, which could be far better reallocated in mid-tiers and juniors.  If VanEck kept the major gold miners in GDX where they should be, it could give GDXJ much-better upside potential. ...