After
several unsuccessful attempts to put his preferred candidates on the
Fed's board, moments ago Donald Trump announced that he intends to
nominate Christopher Waller, who is currently the Executive VP and
Director of Research, at the St. Louis Fed, to the board of the Federal
Reserve. Prior to his current position, Christopher served as a
professor and Chair of Economics at Notre Dame.
トランプ大統領は彼のお気に入りを何度かFED取締役に推奨したがうまくゆかなかった、今度はChiristopher Wallerを推薦した、彼は現在セントルイスFEDのEcexutove VPとDirector of Reserch の役にある。現在の仕事の前は、Chrisotperはノートルダム大学の経済学会長兼教授だった。
I am pleased to announce that it is my intention to nominate Christopher Waller, Ph. D., Executive VP and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Missouri, to be on the board of the Federal Reserve....
He received his B.S. in economics from Bemidji State University in
1981, and his M.A. and Ph.D. from Washington State University in 1984
and 1985, respectively. His principal research interests are monetary
theory, political economy and macroeconomic theory.
１９８１年にBemidji State University で経済学BSを取得、その後M.A.とPh.DをWashington State Universityで取得、１９８４，１９８５。主な研究分野は金融理論、政治経済とマクロ経済理論。
Prior to joining the Fed as research director in June 2009, Mr.
Waller served as a professor and the Gilbert F. Schaefer Chair of
Economics at the University of Notre Dame. He was also a research fellow
with Notre Dame's Kellogg Institute for International Studies.
２００９年６月にFEDの研究ディレクターになる前は、Mr. Wallerはノートルダム大学の経済学教授。彼はまたノートルダムKellogg Institute for International Studiewの研究フェローだった。
From 2006 to 2007, he served as the acting department chair for Notre
Dame's Department of Economics and Econometrics. From 1998 to 2003, Mr.
Waller was a professor and the Carol Martin Gatton Chair of
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics at the University of Kentucky.
During that time, he was also a research fellow at the Center for
European Integration Studies (ZEI) at the University of Bonn. From
1992-1994, he served as the director of graduate studies at Indiana
University's Department of Economics, where he also served as associate
professor (1992 to 1998) and an assistant professor (1985 to 1992).
２００６から２００７年にはノートルダム大学経済学計量経済学、学部長だった。１９９８から２００３年にはMr. Wallerはケンタッキー大学、Carol Marin Gatton Chair of MacroeconomissあんdMonetary Economicsの教授だった。投じ、かれはまたボン大学Center for European Integration Studiesのフェローリサーチャーだった。１９９２−１９９４には、インディアナ大学経済学部大学院のディレクターだった、そこで１９９２−１９９８に准教授、そして１９８５−１９９２に助教授だった。
However, the reason why gold is spiking after hours, is that shortly
after tweeting the Waller nomination, Trump also confirmed the
previously rumored nomination of Judy Shelton to the Fed board:
I am pleased to announce that it is my intention to nominate Judy
Shelton, Ph. D., U.S. Executive Dir, European Bank of Reconstruction
& Development to be on the board of the Federal Reserve Judy is a
Founding Member of the board of directors of Empower America and has
served on the board of directors of Hilton Hotels.
ここで謹んでご報告する、私はJudy Shelton Ph.D、Eutopean Bank of Reconstruction & Developmentの米国代表役員、をFED役員に推薦する。JudyはEmpower Americaの創設メンバーで、ヒルトンホテルの取締役でも在る。
I am pleased to announce that it is my intention to nominate Judy Shelton, Ph. D., U.S. Executive Dir, European Bank of Reconstruction & Development to be on the board of the Federal Reserve....
I am pleased to announce that it is my intention to nominate Judy Shelton, Ph. D., U.S. Executive Dir, European Bank of Reconstruction & Development to be on the board of the Federal Reserve....
This is what Bloomberg reported back
in May: "The White House is considering conservative economist Judy
Shelton to fill one of the two vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board of
Governors that President Donald Trump has struggled to fill. She’s
currently U.S. executive director for the European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development, and previously worked for the Sound
Money Project, which was founded to promote awareness about monetary
stability and financial privacy."
５月にブルームバーグはこう報告した：「ホワイトハウスは保守的エコノミストであるJudy SheltonをFEDの役員空席二名の候補と考えている、トランプ大統領はこれを埋めることに積極的だ。彼女は現愛European Bank for Reconstruction and Develompentの米国代表役員で、これまでSound Money Projectで働いていた、この組織は金融安定化と財政プライバシーのために創設されたものだ。」
Since President Trump announced his intention to nominate Herman Cain
and Stephen Moore to serve on the Federal Reserve’s board of governors,
mainstream commentators have made a point of dismissing anyone
sympathetic to a gold standard as crankish or unqualified.
But it is wholly legitimate, and entirely prudent, to
question the infallibility of the Federal Reserve in calibrating the
money supply to the needs of the economy. No other government
institution had more influence over the creation of money and credit in
the lead-up to the devastating 2008 global meltdown. And the Fed’s
response to the meltdown may have exacerbated the damage by lowering the
incentive for banks to fund private-sector growth.
What began as an emergency decision in the wake of the financial
crisis to pay interest to commercial banks on excess reserves has become
the Fed’s main mechanism for conducting monetary policy. To raise
interest rates, the Fed increases the rate it pays banks to keep their
$1.5 trillion in excess reserves—eight times what is required—parked in
accounts at Federal Reserve district banks. Rewarding banks for holding
excess reserves in sterile depository accounts at the Fed rather than
making loans to the public does not help create business or spur job
creation.
Meanwhile, for all the talk of a “rules-based” system for
international trade, there are no rules when it comes to ensuring a
level monetary playing field. The classical gold standard established an
international benchmark for currency values, consistent with free-trade
principles. Today’s arrangements permit governments to manipulate their
currencies to gain an export advantage.
Money is meant to serve as a reliable unit of account and store of value across borders and through time. It’s
entirely reasonable to ask whether this might be better assured by
linking the supply of money and credit to gold or some other reference
point as opposed to relying on the judgment of a dozen or so monetary
officials meeting eight times a year to set interest rates. A
linked system could allow currency convertibility by individuals (as
under a gold standard) or foreign central banks (as under Bretton
Woods). Either way, it could redress inflationary pressures.
マネーとは本来国を超え時間を超えて信頼できる store of value であるはずだ。マネーと与信の供給をゴールドもしくは他の基準に連動させるといのは全く合理的なことで、一方現在は年に８回も各国の金融担当者が会合を持つのとは全く違う手法だ。こういう連動システムは個人の取引（金本位制のもとで）も各国中央銀行間（Bretton Woodsのもとで）の通貨交換をも可能にする。 どちらにしろインフレ圧力を無くする。
Judy Shelton is author of the 1998 book Money Meltdown; and previously she had concluded that "Central bankers, and their defenders, have proven less than omniscient."
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう 記事を紹介しようと訳を入れている間にFOMCが過ぎてしまいタイミングを逸してしまいました、前半は読み飛ばしてください。後半部分に関して、日本では一般会計と特別会計が別れていて政府財政がわかりにくいですが、米国は分離されておらず年金会計がより鮮明になります。＄７０Tって邦貨でいうと約７０００兆円ですからね。 Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard 07-26-19 Written by Lance Roberts | Jul, 27, 2019 Last week, we discussed the setup for a near-term mean reversion because of the massive extension above the long-term mean. To wit: 先週には、私どもは短期的な平均回帰のし掛けが出来上がっていることを議論した、というのも現在長期的な平均から極端に乖離しているからだ。見てみよう： “There is also just the simple issue that markets are very extended above their long-term trends, as shown in the chart below. A geopolitical event, a shift in expectations, or an acceleration in economic weakness in the U.S. could spark a mean-reverting event which would be quite the norm of what we have seen in recent years.” 「とてもかんたんなことだが、市場は長期的なトレンドからあまりに極端に上方乖離している、それは下のチャートを見れば明らかだ。地政学的出来事、期待値の変化、もしくは米国経済の弱さが加速するなら、平均回帰を引き起こすだろう、それは過去数年でみた典型的な相場の動きだ。」 This analysis is ...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
Productivity: What It Is & Why It Matters Written by Michael Lebowitz | Jan, 16, 2019 The Kansas City Federal Reserve posted the Twitter comment and graph below highlighting a very important economic theme. Although productivity is a basic building block of economic analysis, it is one that few economists and even fewer investors seem to appreciate. Kansas 市FEDがツイッターにコメントを投稿した、そのグラフを下に示す、とても重要な経済テーマだ。経済分析においては生産性というのはとても重要な要素だが、ほとんどのエコノミストがこの件に言及しない、投資家は更にこのことを忘れ去っている。 The Kansas City Fed’s tweet is 100% correct in that wages are stagnating in large part due to low productivity growth. As the second chart shows, it is not only wages. The post financial-crisis economic expansion, despite being within months of a record for duration, is by far the weakest since WWII. Kansas City FEDのツイートは１００％正しい、給与が停滞している原因の主要因は生産性成長が低いからだ。二番目のチャートを見ても判るように、成長鈍化は給与だけではない。あの金融危機後の経済拡大は、第二次世界大戦後で記録的長期の拡大期間だが、とても弱い拡大だ。 Productivity growth over the last 350+ years is ...
この記事は投資人生を通じて有効です。 The Beginning is the End is the Beginning: A Look at Recessions Market Commentary Stocks By Liz Ann Sonders February 25, 2019 Key Points Recessions are not back-to-back negative GDP quarters; they’re instead defined using four key coincident economic indicators. 景気後退とはマイナスGDP成長四半期が連続することではない；そうではなく４つの重要経済指標で定義される。 Bear markets often overlap with recessions (and typically lead them), but not always. ベア相場は景気後退と重なることが多い（典型的には先行する）、しかし必ずそうというわけでもない。 It’s important to distinguish between leading and lagging economic indicators and to focus at least as much on trend as level. 大切なことは先行指標と遅行指標を見極めること、そしてすくなくともそのトレンドに注意せよ。 Recession chatter is abundant lately. It’s increasingly the focus of Q&A sessions at investor events at which I’ve been speaking. I also received a series of questions last week about recessions fro...
