Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,
The widely discussed "everything bubble" is, in reality, a corporate junk bond bubble on steroids sponsored by the Fed...
From a low last October of just under USD 6 trillions the value of
the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Negative-Yielding Debt Index has
more than doubled, increasing in value by over USD 7 trillions over the
last 8 months to establish an all-time record of USD 13.2 trillions
earlier in late June.
昨年１０月の最小時にはマイナス金利債権の量はUSD 6T以下であった、このデータはBloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Negative-Yielding Debt Indexによるものだ、これが現在倍になっている、過去８か月でUSD7Tも増えたのだ、その結果６月遅くには過去最高の USD 13.2Tになった。
The current situation is a manifestation of the inability of global
financial markets to emerge from the era of ultra-low bond yields that
central banks engineered in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Non-conventional policies pursued by central banks in recent years
have lead neither to a rise in sluggish rates of economic growth nor to
an end in the disinflationary trends within the global economy.
After a decade-long buying spree, many companies have pushed their
leverage to levels that are typical of junk-rated borrowers in their
sectors.
もう１０年も買いの度が過ぎて、多くの企業は自らの債権をそのセクタのジャンク級にまでしている。
Bloomberg News delved into 50 of the biggest corporate acquisitions
over the last five years, and found more than half of the acquiring
companies pushed their leverage to levels typical of junk-rated peers.
But those companies, which have almost $1 trillion of debt, have been
allowed to maintain investment-grade ratings by Moody’s Investors
Service and S&P Global Ratings.
This M&A-fueled leveraging of corporate balance sheets
contributed to a surge in debt rated in the bottom investment-grade tier
and now represents almost half of the outstanding market, Bloomberg
Barclays index data show.
Wolf Richterはこう解説する、BBB格付け企業が「ジャンク級」への格下げ回避を試みたときに何が起きるか。
In the next downturn, many bonds in the BBB-category will transition
to junk, and many junk bonds but also some investment-grade bonds – if
the past is any guide – will transition to default. Two-notch downgrades
are not uncommon: one day you wake up, and your “BBB” investment-grade
bond is a “BB+” junk bond.
To avoid a downgrade to junk, companies will try to shore up their
balance sheet. This means curtailing or stopping share buybacks and
slashing dividends.
This is a process GE went through. After blowing nearly $14 billion
on share buybacks in the four years through 2017 to prop up its shares,
GE stopped on a dime and transitioned to dismembering itself to pay down
debts. The share buybacks stopped cold. Then it slashed its dividends
to near-zero. And its shares have plunged.
GE now sports a credit rating of “BBB+” with negative outlook, three
notches from junk, after getting hit by a round of two-notch downgrades
late last year. Despite having already cut off some major limbs to
reduce its debts, GE still has $97 billion in long-term debt. And GE is
still trying hard to dodge further downgrades.
In the latest sign of financial markets going into uncharted
territory, more than a dozen junk bonds, which usually carry high
yields, now trade in Europe with a negative yield.
There are about 14 companies with junk bonds worth more than €3
billion ($3.38 billion) that are trading with negative yields, according
to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. They include telecom giant Altice
Europe NV and tech-equipment company Nokia Corp.
マイナス金利のジャンク・ボンドが１４社で€３B（＄３．３８B)にもなる、Bank of America Merrill Lynchのデータによる。その中には、テレコム巨人のAltice Europe NVやテック企業Nokiaも含まれる。
Everything Bubble
なんでもバブル
Stocks 株式
Bonds 債権
Consumer Confidence 消費者信頼
Buybacks 自社株買い
Faith in Central Banks 中央銀行への信頼
The "everything bubble" has at its roots central bank policy of yield suppression.
Central banks made it easy for corporations to borrow money for
leverage buyouts, to buy back shares, and for zombie corporations to get
enough funding to stay alive.
Investors (speculators actually), especially retiring boomers, are as
optimistic as they were in 2007 when they viewed their own house as a
retirement vehicle, not a place to live.
Investor faith in central banks has never been higher.
投資家の中央銀行への信頼がここまで高かったことはない。
At the individual level, baby boomers see the stock market is up so they buy a car and have a nice vacation.
個人レベルで見ても、団塊の世代は株式は上昇するものだと思い込み、車を買いバケーションを享受する。
Corporations borrow money to buy back their own shares or to make insanely leveraged buyouts.
企業は借金して自社株買いを買う、もしくは不健全なレバレッジドバイアウトを行う。
Hedge funds buy low-yielding junk bonds in belief yields will get even more ridiculous.
ヘッジファンドは低金利のジャンク・ボンドを買う、もっと高値で買う人がいると信じてのことだ。
Deflation Coming
収縮が来る
The Fed is hell bent on producing inflation. The sad part is they do
not now how to measure it. Inflation is all around us: In junk bonds, in
equities, and in home prices.
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton February 7, 2020 2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting. While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact. Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September. And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher. When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners. As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity. For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult. ...
最後の二段落だけ訳をいれましょう。 Gold-Stock Head Fake? Adam Hamilton January 3, 2020 3174 Words Gold miners’ stocks blasted higher this past week, breaking out of their correction downtrend. Rapidly-improving psychology fueled such strong upside momentum that sector benchmarks are challenging months-old upleg highs. Most traders assume this is righteous, that gold stocks’ next upleg is starting to accelerate. But key indicators argue the contrarian side, that this breakout surge is a head fake within a correction. In early September, a major gold-stock upleg peaked after soaring higher on gold’s decisive bull-market breakout in late June. The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, this sector’s leading benchmark and trading vehicle, had powered 76.2% higher over 11.8 months. It crested the same day gold’s own upleg did, hitting $30.95 on close. That ma...
最後の２段落だけ訳を入れておきます。 Silver Miners’ Q3’19 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton November 29, 2019 3726 Words The silver miners are finally enjoying higher prevailing silver prices, a great boon for this sector. Silver surged this past summer after gold’s first new bull-market highs in several years rekindled enthusiasm for precious metals. The long-neglected silver stocks rallied strongly with their metal. Their recently-reported Q3’19 results reveal whether those gains are justified, and how much fundamentals improved on higher silver. Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding pr...
Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q4’19 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton March 20, 2020 3250 Words The mid-tier gold miners’ stocks have been annihilated with COVID-19 fears infecting traders’ sentiment. They crashed with gold getting hammered on extreme gold-futures selling! With blood in the streets, the buy-low opportunities are phenomenal. The fundamentally-superior mid-tier gold miners have epic upside potential during gold’s next upleg. This key sector just reported outstanding Q4’19 results on higher gold. The sheer carnage in gold-stock-land has been jaw-dropping! In late February, the gold-stock sector per its leading benchmark GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF edged up to a 3.5-year high slightly above early September’s. That was fueled by gold’s $1600 breakout surge on COVID-19 fears. Yet as I warned in an essay the trading day before GDX’s pe...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
