Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,
The widely discussed "everything bubble" is, in reality, a corporate junk bond bubble on steroids sponsored by the Fed...
From a low last October of just under USD 6 trillions the value of
the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Negative-Yielding Debt Index has
more than doubled, increasing in value by over USD 7 trillions over the
last 8 months to establish an all-time record of USD 13.2 trillions
earlier in late June.
昨年１０月の最小時にはマイナス金利債権の量はUSD 6T以下であった、このデータはBloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Negative-Yielding Debt Indexによるものだ、これが現在倍になっている、過去８か月でUSD7Tも増えたのだ、その結果６月遅くには過去最高の USD 13.2Tになった。
The current situation is a manifestation of the inability of global
financial markets to emerge from the era of ultra-low bond yields that
central banks engineered in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Non-conventional policies pursued by central banks in recent years
have lead neither to a rise in sluggish rates of economic growth nor to
an end in the disinflationary trends within the global economy.
After a decade-long buying spree, many companies have pushed their
leverage to levels that are typical of junk-rated borrowers in their
sectors.
もう１０年も買いの度が過ぎて、多くの企業は自らの債権をそのセクタのジャンク級にまでしている。
Bloomberg News delved into 50 of the biggest corporate acquisitions
over the last five years, and found more than half of the acquiring
companies pushed their leverage to levels typical of junk-rated peers.
But those companies, which have almost $1 trillion of debt, have been
allowed to maintain investment-grade ratings by Moody’s Investors
Service and S&P Global Ratings.
This M&A-fueled leveraging of corporate balance sheets
contributed to a surge in debt rated in the bottom investment-grade tier
and now represents almost half of the outstanding market, Bloomberg
Barclays index data show.
Wolf Richterはこう解説する、BBB格付け企業が「ジャンク級」への格下げ回避を試みたときに何が起きるか。
In the next downturn, many bonds in the BBB-category will transition
to junk, and many junk bonds but also some investment-grade bonds – if
the past is any guide – will transition to default. Two-notch downgrades
are not uncommon: one day you wake up, and your “BBB” investment-grade
bond is a “BB+” junk bond.
To avoid a downgrade to junk, companies will try to shore up their
balance sheet. This means curtailing or stopping share buybacks and
slashing dividends.
This is a process GE went through. After blowing nearly $14 billion
on share buybacks in the four years through 2017 to prop up its shares,
GE stopped on a dime and transitioned to dismembering itself to pay down
debts. The share buybacks stopped cold. Then it slashed its dividends
to near-zero. And its shares have plunged.
GE now sports a credit rating of “BBB+” with negative outlook, three
notches from junk, after getting hit by a round of two-notch downgrades
late last year. Despite having already cut off some major limbs to
reduce its debts, GE still has $97 billion in long-term debt. And GE is
still trying hard to dodge further downgrades.
In the latest sign of financial markets going into uncharted
territory, more than a dozen junk bonds, which usually carry high
yields, now trade in Europe with a negative yield.
There are about 14 companies with junk bonds worth more than €3
billion ($3.38 billion) that are trading with negative yields, according
to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. They include telecom giant Altice
Europe NV and tech-equipment company Nokia Corp.
マイナス金利のジャンク・ボンドが１４社で€３B（＄３．３８B)にもなる、Bank of America Merrill Lynchのデータによる。その中には、テレコム巨人のAltice Europe NVやテック企業Nokiaも含まれる。
Everything Bubble
なんでもバブル
Stocks 株式
Bonds 債権
Consumer Confidence 消費者信頼
Buybacks 自社株買い
Faith in Central Banks 中央銀行への信頼
The "everything bubble" has at its roots central bank policy of yield suppression.
Central banks made it easy for corporations to borrow money for
leverage buyouts, to buy back shares, and for zombie corporations to get
enough funding to stay alive.
Investors (speculators actually), especially retiring boomers, are as
optimistic as they were in 2007 when they viewed their own house as a
retirement vehicle, not a place to live.
Investor faith in central banks has never been higher.
投資家の中央銀行への信頼がここまで高かったことはない。
At the individual level, baby boomers see the stock market is up so they buy a car and have a nice vacation.
個人レベルで見ても、団塊の世代は株式は上昇するものだと思い込み、車を買いバケーションを享受する。
Corporations borrow money to buy back their own shares or to make insanely leveraged buyouts.
企業は借金して自社株買いを買う、もしくは不健全なレバレッジドバイアウトを行う。
Hedge funds buy low-yielding junk bonds in belief yields will get even more ridiculous.
ヘッジファンドは低金利のジャンク・ボンドを買う、もっと高値で買う人がいると信じてのことだ。
Deflation Coming
収縮が来る
The Fed is hell bent on producing inflation. The sad part is they do
not now how to measure it. Inflation is all around us: In junk bonds, in
equities, and in home prices.
この記事よりももっと詳しい分析がこちらにあります。： https://www.adamtownsend.me/china-financial-stability-report/ 元データは毎年開示されるPBOCの英文報告に基づいたものです： http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/130736/index.html ただ、毎年２００ページ超もあり、そう簡単に読みこなせるものではありません。この記事の表のようなわかりやすい形で整理して開示はしていません。この記事の表にはどの年の何ページに書かれたデータであるかが示されています。日本語ネットの記事ではシャードーバンクの規模がよくわからないというものが多いですが、毎年PBOC自らがシャドーバンク規模を自ら認めています。その規模は驚くものです。 この記事に書かれている数値は驚くばかりです。ここまで信用創造をしているのかと驚きます。そりゃ昨年来RRRの低減とかの緩和策を連発してますが、効果が無いのももっともです。これまでの緩和の規模からすると昨年のこの手の緩和はその規模が全く足りないですね。一年以上前にZeroHedgeで中国企業の殆どがミンスキーポイントを超えている、企業の営業利益で債務金利が賄えず利払いのために新たな借金をしている、というのが詳しくデータで示されていましたが、なるほどなと思います。 The Black Swan So Ugly No One Will Talk About It by Phoenix Capita… Fri, 01/11/2019 - 11:55 The biggest black swan facing the financial system is China. 金融システムが直面する最大のブラックスワンは中国だ。 China has been the primary driver of growth for the global economy since the 2008 Crisis...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
