Too
bad Kyle Bass closed his yuan short earlier this year. If he had held
that position, he would have made a killing on Monday, when the Chinese
currency broke below 7 to the dollar and continued to tumble as the currency war between the world's two largest economies officially began.
Though Bass insists that the HKD, against which he has taken a large
position betting that its more than 30-year-old peg against the dollar
will soon break, won't be far behind the yuan now that Beijing has
seemingly stopped supporting the formerly tightly controlled yuan, the
hedge fund manager, who still probably profited off his short positions
against the currencies of several regional rivals, appeared on CNBC's
"the Closing Bell' Monday afternoon to talk China.
BassはHKDにまだ大きなポジションを取っており、３０年以上対ドルペッグしてきたが、これがすぐに壊れるだろうとBassは主張するが、いまやHKDもやがて人民元に沿う遅れは取らないだろう、というのも北京政府は人民元を厳格に操作することを止めたように見える、と the hedge fund manager がCNBCの「the Closing Bell」で月曜午後に中国に関して話した、彼はみずからのショートポジションで多分利益を出している。
Inviting Bass to speak made sense: He's established himself as one of
the most prominent China bears in the West, even joining with Steve
Bannon to warn investors and ordinary people of the dangers of China's
constant manipulation of the US. And during Friday's interview, which
came as US stocks locked in their worst daily performance of the year, Bass explained how the yuan could sink another 30% or 40% if Beijing completely abandons supporting it. Bassを話者として招待したのは良いタイミングだ：彼は自らを最も著名な中国ベア論者として名を馳せた、Steve Bannonとともに投資家に中国の為替操作の危険性をずっと警告し続けてきた。そして金曜のインタビューで、その日は米国株式市場の今年最悪の日だったが、Bassはこう解説した、もし北京政府が自国通貨維持操作をまったく諦めるなら、人民元はさらに３０％から４０％下落するだろう。
As Bass explained, President Trump's claim that Beijing manipulates its currency is accurate.
Bassはこう解説する、北京政府が為替を操作しているとトランプ大統領が主張するのは正しい。
"What’s happening in China is they have to have dollars to sell to
buy their own currency to hold it up. If they were to ever free float
their currency, I think it would drop 30% or 40%," Bass told CNBC’s "Closing Bell."
"And the reason is they claim to be 15% of global GDP in dollar
terms, but less than 1% of global transactions settled in their own
currency," Bass added. "And so, they prop their currency
up...everyone calling them a currency manipulator – they are trying to
hold this whole thing together."
For the first time since 2008, the exchange rate for China's onshore
yuan sunk below 7 to the dollar on Monday. Pressure on the yuan started
last week after President Trump said he would slap tariffs on another
~$300 billion of Chinese imports. It accelerated on Monday when Beijing
announced that it would cancel agricultural purchases promised as part
of the latest trade war detente.
Bass has warned American corporations not to pressure the Trump
Administration to strike a deal with China. He added that Beijing has a
history of never living up to its promises re: trade since joining the
WTO since 2001.
“Every deal that the Chinese have signed up with us since their
inception into the WTO since 2001, China never lives up to their
promises,” he said on July 25. “At some point in time, one of our
administrative officials is going to hold their feet to the fire and
this is kind of a battle of cultures because the Communist Party doesn’t
want to submit themselves to anything measurable or enforceable.”
"If the Chinese run out of dollars, they need dollars to buy everything that they import..." Bass said.
「もし中国でドルが枯渇すると、輸入ができなくなってしまい困ることになる・・・」とBassは言った。
He then referenced South Korea back in the 90s during the runup to
the Asian currency crisis: South Korea infamously kept USD on its
balance sheet after loaning them out to their banks, making their pile
of dollar FX reserves an illusion.
Something similar is happening now with China, Bass said.
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
１００年に一度と言われる出来事が過去２０年で二回も起き、今度が三度目になるかどうか？ Ignore The Yield Curve, They Said… 03-30-19 Written by Lance Roberts | Mar, 30, 2019 A Run For The Highs 高値に向かう Friday wrapped up the first quarter of 2019, and it was the best quarterly performance since 2009. As shown in the chart below, if you bought the bottom, you are “ killing it.” ２０１９Q1も金曜に終わり、２００９年以来最良の四半期だった。下のチャートに示すが、もしみなさんが底値でかっていたなら、「息を呑まんばかりだ」ったろう。 However, you didn’t. しかしながら、そうはしなかったでしょう。 Despite all of the media “hoopla” about the rally, the reality is that for most, they are simply getting back to even over the last year. どのメディアもこのラリーで「大騒ぎ」だが、現実を思い起こすと、これは単に昨年のレベルに戻っただけのことだ。 That is, assuming you didn’t “sell the bottom” in December, which by looking at allocation changes, certainly appears to be the case for many. ということで、みなさんは１２月の「底値で売る」ようなことをしなかったろう、それは多くの人も同じことだ。 If we deconstruct the ratio we can see the rotation a bit better この比率を分析すると資金移動をもう少しよく理解できる Not surpr...
