China continues to escalate its capital controls with headlines today from Reuters that Chinese authorities have curbed private gold imports since May as the trade war escalated in a move that could be aimed at curbing outflows of dollars and bolstering its yuan.
中国は引き続き資本規制を強化している、今日のロイター記事によると中国当局は5月以来個人のゴールド輸入を制限している、貿易戦争激化に伴い、ドル流出を抑え人民元を支えている。
According to sources, China's gold imports are down 300-500 tonnes, with around $15-$25 billion, since May.
複数の情報源によると、中国のゴールド輸入は300−500トン減っている、$15−$25Bに相当する、5月以来のことだ。 As Reuters details, the
bulk of China’s imports - from places such as Switzerland, Australia
and South Africa and usually paid for in dollars - are conducted by a
group of local and international banks given monthly import quotas by
the Chinese central bank. But quotas have been curtailed or not granted at all for several months, seven sources in the bullion industry in London, Hong Kong, Singapore and China said.
“It’s all linked to what’s going on in terms of how the central bank is handling the currency,” the person said.
「全ては中央銀行が通貨をどう扱うかに関連している、」と一人は言う。
Rather notably, after optically pegging the yuan to gold for the last few years, it appears the gold import curbs started as China lost control of its currency... よく知られているが、ここ数年人民元はゴールドにペグされてきた後、中国政府が通貨を制御できなくなるに連れゴールド輸入が制限され始めた・・・・・ Source: Bloomberg China has also restricted gold import quotas before - most recently in 2016 after the yuan weakened sharply, bullion bankers said.
This could not be more ironic as SchiffGold.com reports,China bought gold for the eighth straight month in July, adding another 10 tons to its rapidly growing hoard.
The recent purchases boosted the People’s Bank of China’s gold reserves to 62.26 million ounces – about 1,945 tons. China has added about 94 tons of gold to its stash over the past eight months. 最近の買い増しで中国人民銀行のゴールド備蓄は62.26Mオンスとなったーー約1.945トンだ。過去8ヶ月で中国は94トンのゴールド備蓄を増やした。
Source: Bloomberg
The Chinese continue to add gold to their reserves in an effort to reduce their exposure to the dollar. As one analyst told Bloomberg, “It
is important for the country to diversify away from the US dollar. Over
the long run, even relatively small-scale gold purchases add up and
help to meet this objective.”
中国政府はドルの露出をへらすためにゴールド備蓄増加をつづけている。あるアナリストによると、「中国にとってドルから分散することが大切だ。長期的には、たとえ少量でもゴールド積み増しが続く。」
But China’s gold purchases, along with the buying spree in other
countries, including Russia, also aim toward a broader geopolitical
objective. They want to undermine dollar hegemony and reduce the United
States’ ability to weaponize the dollar as a foreign policy tool. As we reported earlier this month, even the mainstream is beginning to pick up on this narrative.
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. economist Howie Lee told Bloomberg last month that he expects China to continue buying gold as it seeks to become a bigger player on the world stage.
In December 2018, the People’s Bank of China announced the first
addition of gold to its reserves since 2016. The Chinese have a history
of going long periods without officially adding gold to its stores and
then suddenly revealing a large increase in its reserves. In 2009, the
People’s Bank of China stopped reporting its gold holdings. Then in June
2015, the Chinese central bank suddenly announced its gold hoard had grown by 57%.
For a little more than a year, the PBOC regularly announced additions
to its gold reserves. Chinese gold holdings rose another 185 tons over the next 16 months before the bank suddenly went silent again. 一年近くが過ぎてから、PBOCはゴールド備蓄増加を定期的に開示している。再びPBOCが沈黙する前の16ヶ月でゴールド備蓄は185トン増えた。 During the last gold-buying spree, China was pushing for the inclusion of the yuan in the International Monetary Fund’s benchmark currency basket.
Many analysts believe China holds far more gold than it officially reveals. As Jim Rickards pointed out on Mises Daily back in 2015, many
people speculate that China keeps several thousand tons of gold “off
the books” in a separate entity called the State Administration for
Foreign Exchange (SAFE). Given the political dynamics and the
ongoing trade war, it seems unlikely the Chinese suddenly stopped
increasing their gold reserves in 2016.
前回ゴールド買いに熱心だったころ、中国政府はIMFの通貨バスケットに人民元を組み込むように強く推奨していた。多くのアナリストは中国は公開量よりも遥かに多くのゴールドを備蓄していると見ている。Jim Rickardsが2015年にMises Dailyで指摘したが、多くの人は中国が「簿外」に数千トンのゴールドを保持していると推測している、別機関と鳴る、State Administration for Foreign Exchange(SAFE)にだ。現在の政治情勢と貿易戦争からして、中国が急に備蓄量増加を止めるとは思えない。
China isn’t alone in buying gold. Central bank buying helped boost overall gold demand 8% in the second quarter,
according to the World Gold Council. Globally, central banks bought
224.4 tons of gold in Q2. That brought the total on the year to 374.1
tons. China and Russia have been the biggest buyers.
The days that the dollar is a reserve currency are numbered
and the smart central banks are trying to buy as much gold as they can
before the number is up.”
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ2週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを7時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、2018年の最後の3ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
結局、中国は隣国日本で20年前に起きたことを学んでいなかったということでしょう、というかどの国もどの政府も十分成熟するまでは「わかっちゃいるけどやめられない」ということでしょうね、きっと。 Spooked By Apple? Wait ‘Til China’s Bubble Bursts Written by Jesse Colombo | Jan, 3, 2019 Apple stock plunged nearly 10% on Thursday after the company cut its revenue forecast due to slowing iPhone sales in China. Apple’s woes dragged U.S. stock indices lower by more than 2% as fears of a more extensive China-driven slowdown spread. アップルの株価は火曜に約10%下落した、同社が中国でのiPhone売上原則を予想したためだ。アップルの弱さが米国株式指数を2%以上押し下げた、中国主導でさらなる原則が広がるのではという懸念からだ。 From the New York Times : ニューヨークタイムスによると: For years, no matter what was happening elsewhere, global companies bet billions upon billions of dollars that China’s consumers would keep spending money. 長年、他国で何が起きようとも多国籍企業は中国消費は巨額を維持することに賭けてきた。 Now, just when the world economy could use their financial firepower, they are no longer so quick to open their wallets. 今や、世界経済が金融弾薬を用いてももはや彼らの財布を緩めることはできない。 The latest sign of a slowdown in...
100年に一度と言われる出来事が過去20年で二回も起き、今度が三度目になるかどうか? Ignore The Yield Curve, They Said… 03-30-19 Written by Lance Roberts | Mar, 30, 2019 A Run For The Highs 高値に向かう Friday wrapped up the first quarter of 2019, and it was the best quarterly performance since 2009. As shown in the chart below, if you bought the bottom, you are “ killing it.” 2019Q1も金曜に終わり、2009年以来最良の四半期だった。下のチャートに示すが、もしみなさんが底値でかっていたなら、「息を呑まんばかりだ」ったろう。 However, you didn’t. しかしながら、そうはしなかったでしょう。 Despite all of the media “hoopla” about the rally, the reality is that for most, they are simply getting back to even over the last year. どのメディアもこのラリーで「大騒ぎ」だが、現実を思い起こすと、これは単に昨年のレベルに戻っただけのことだ。 That is, assuming you didn’t “sell the bottom” in December, which by looking at allocation changes, certainly appears to be the case for many. ということで、みなさんは12月の「底値で売る」ようなことをしなかったろう、それは多くの人も同じことだ。 If we deconstruct the ratio we can see the rotation a bit better この比率を分析すると資金移動をもう少しよく理解できる Not surpr...