China continues to escalate its capital controls with headlines today from Reuters that Chinese authorities have curbed private gold imports since May as the trade war escalated in a move that could be aimed at curbing outflows of dollars and bolstering its yuan.
中国は引き続き資本規制を強化している、今日のロイター記事によると中国当局は5月以来個人のゴールド輸入を制限している、貿易戦争激化に伴い、ドル流出を抑え人民元を支えている。
According to sources, China's gold imports are down 300-500 tonnes, with around $15-$25 billion, since May.
複数の情報源によると、中国のゴールド輸入は300−500トン減っている、$15−$25Bに相当する、5月以来のことだ。 As Reuters details, the
bulk of China’s imports - from places such as Switzerland, Australia
and South Africa and usually paid for in dollars - are conducted by a
group of local and international banks given monthly import quotas by
the Chinese central bank. But quotas have been curtailed or not granted at all for several months, seven sources in the bullion industry in London, Hong Kong, Singapore and China said.
“It’s all linked to what’s going on in terms of how the central bank is handling the currency,” the person said.
「全ては中央銀行が通貨をどう扱うかに関連している、」と一人は言う。
Rather notably, after optically pegging the yuan to gold for the last few years, it appears the gold import curbs started as China lost control of its currency... よく知られているが、ここ数年人民元はゴールドにペグされてきた後、中国政府が通貨を制御できなくなるに連れゴールド輸入が制限され始めた・・・・・ Source: Bloomberg China has also restricted gold import quotas before - most recently in 2016 after the yuan weakened sharply, bullion bankers said.
This could not be more ironic as SchiffGold.com reports,China bought gold for the eighth straight month in July, adding another 10 tons to its rapidly growing hoard.
The recent purchases boosted the People’s Bank of China’s gold reserves to 62.26 million ounces – about 1,945 tons. China has added about 94 tons of gold to its stash over the past eight months. 最近の買い増しで中国人民銀行のゴールド備蓄は62.26Mオンスとなったーー約1.945トンだ。過去8ヶ月で中国は94トンのゴールド備蓄を増やした。
Source: Bloomberg
The Chinese continue to add gold to their reserves in an effort to reduce their exposure to the dollar. As one analyst told Bloomberg, “It
is important for the country to diversify away from the US dollar. Over
the long run, even relatively small-scale gold purchases add up and
help to meet this objective.”
中国政府はドルの露出をへらすためにゴールド備蓄増加をつづけている。あるアナリストによると、「中国にとってドルから分散することが大切だ。長期的には、たとえ少量でもゴールド積み増しが続く。」
But China’s gold purchases, along with the buying spree in other
countries, including Russia, also aim toward a broader geopolitical
objective. They want to undermine dollar hegemony and reduce the United
States’ ability to weaponize the dollar as a foreign policy tool. As we reported earlier this month, even the mainstream is beginning to pick up on this narrative.
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. economist Howie Lee told Bloomberg last month that he expects China to continue buying gold as it seeks to become a bigger player on the world stage.
In December 2018, the People’s Bank of China announced the first
addition of gold to its reserves since 2016. The Chinese have a history
of going long periods without officially adding gold to its stores and
then suddenly revealing a large increase in its reserves. In 2009, the
People’s Bank of China stopped reporting its gold holdings. Then in June
2015, the Chinese central bank suddenly announced its gold hoard had grown by 57%.
For a little more than a year, the PBOC regularly announced additions
to its gold reserves. Chinese gold holdings rose another 185 tons over the next 16 months before the bank suddenly went silent again. 一年近くが過ぎてから、PBOCはゴールド備蓄増加を定期的に開示している。再びPBOCが沈黙する前の16ヶ月でゴールド備蓄は185トン増えた。 During the last gold-buying spree, China was pushing for the inclusion of the yuan in the International Monetary Fund’s benchmark currency basket.
Many analysts believe China holds far more gold than it officially reveals. As Jim Rickards pointed out on Mises Daily back in 2015, many
people speculate that China keeps several thousand tons of gold “off
the books” in a separate entity called the State Administration for
Foreign Exchange (SAFE). Given the political dynamics and the
ongoing trade war, it seems unlikely the Chinese suddenly stopped
increasing their gold reserves in 2016.
前回ゴールド買いに熱心だったころ、中国政府はIMFの通貨バスケットに人民元を組み込むように強く推奨していた。多くのアナリストは中国は公開量よりも遥かに多くのゴールドを備蓄していると見ている。Jim Rickardsが2015年にMises Dailyで指摘したが、多くの人は中国が「簿外」に数千トンのゴールドを保持していると推測している、別機関と鳴る、State Administration for Foreign Exchange(SAFE)にだ。現在の政治情勢と貿易戦争からして、中国が急に備蓄量増加を止めるとは思えない。
China isn’t alone in buying gold. Central bank buying helped boost overall gold demand 8% in the second quarter,
according to the World Gold Council. Globally, central banks bought
224.4 tons of gold in Q2. That brought the total on the year to 374.1
tons. China and Russia have been the biggest buyers.
The days that the dollar is a reserve currency are numbered
and the smart central banks are trying to buy as much gold as they can
before the number is up.”
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう この長文記事をRay Dalioが発表し、ゴールドは$1400から$1420へと急騰しました。GLD保持高に変化はないのでたぶん先物ポジションが進んでいます。 Ray Dalio Warns A "New Paradigm" Is Coming: "Buy Gold, Sell Stocks" by Tyler Durden Wed, 07/17/2019 - 14:44 Authored by Ray Dalio via LinkedIn, One of my investment principles is: 私の投資原則はこういうものだ: Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops. 現在のパラダイムを認識し、それがどの程度持続可能かどうか判断する、そしてパラダイムシフトがどのように起きるか、そしてその着地点を思い描く。 Over my roughly 50 years of being a global macro investor, I have observed there to be relatively long of periods (about 10 years) in which the markets and market relationships operate in a certain way (which I call “paradig...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう 記事を紹介しようと訳を入れている間にFOMCが過ぎてしまいタイミングを逸してしまいました、前半は読み飛ばしてください。後半部分に関して、日本では一般会計と特別会計が別れていて政府財政がわかりにくいですが、米国は分離されておらず年金会計がより鮮明になります。$70Tって邦貨でいうと約7000兆円ですからね。 Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard 07-26-19 Written by Lance Roberts | Jul, 27, 2019 Last week, we discussed the setup for a near-term mean reversion because of the massive extension above the long-term mean. To wit: 先週には、私どもは短期的な平均回帰のし掛けが出来上がっていることを議論した、というのも現在長期的な平均から極端に乖離しているからだ。見てみよう: “There is also just the simple issue that markets are very extended above their long-term trends, as shown in the chart below. A geopolitical event, a shift in expectations, or an acceleration in economic weakness in the U.S. could spark a mean-reverting event which would be quite the norm of what we have seen in recent years.” 「とてもかんたんなことだが、市場は長期的なトレンドからあまりに極端に上方乖離している、それは下のチャートを見れば明らかだ。地政学的出来事、期待値の変化、もしくは米国経済の弱さが加速するなら、平均回帰を引き起こすだろう、それは過去数年でみた典型的な相場の動きだ。」 This analysis is ...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを7時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、2018年の最後の3ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
Mish: Gold Hits New Record High And There's More To Come by Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2020 - 10:10 Twitter Facebook Reddit Email Print Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Gold futures just touched $1928 taking out the Intraday high of $1923.70 in 2011. ゴールド先物が$1928になり、2011年の日中高値$1923.70を超えた。 11-Week Run 11週連続上昇 Gold is on a huge 11-week run. The last time gold did that was at the 2011 high. ゴールドはなんと11週連続で上昇だ。前回の新高値は2011年のことだった。 Is a pullback in order? A Gold COT chart says otherwise. 通常の引き戻しが待ち構えているだろうか? ゴールドのCoTチャートを見るとそうでもなさそうだ。 Gold COT Chart ゴールドCoTチャート Understanding Futures 先物市場を読み解く In the futures world there is a short for every long. 先物市場ではどのロングにもショートが対応している。 The first horizontal box has Large Specs, Small Specs, and Commercials. This is It's Old COT reporting. この図の下部、最初の横長い箱に示すのは Large Specs、Small Specs、そしてCommercialsのポジションだ。このチャートは従来からのCoT...