China continues to escalate its capital controls with headlines today from Reuters that Chinese authorities have curbed private gold imports since May as the trade war escalated in a move that could be aimed at curbing outflows of dollars and bolstering its yuan.
中国は引き続き資本規制を強化している、今日のロイター記事によると中国当局は5月以来個人のゴールド輸入を制限している、貿易戦争激化に伴い、ドル流出を抑え人民元を支えている。
According to sources, China's gold imports are down 300-500 tonnes, with around $15-$25 billion, since May.
複数の情報源によると、中国のゴールド輸入は300−500トン減っている、$15−$25Bに相当する、5月以来のことだ。 As Reuters details, the
bulk of China’s imports - from places such as Switzerland, Australia
and South Africa and usually paid for in dollars - are conducted by a
group of local and international banks given monthly import quotas by
the Chinese central bank. But quotas have been curtailed or not granted at all for several months, seven sources in the bullion industry in London, Hong Kong, Singapore and China said.
“It’s all linked to what’s going on in terms of how the central bank is handling the currency,” the person said.
「全ては中央銀行が通貨をどう扱うかに関連している、」と一人は言う。
Rather notably, after optically pegging the yuan to gold for the last few years, it appears the gold import curbs started as China lost control of its currency... よく知られているが、ここ数年人民元はゴールドにペグされてきた後、中国政府が通貨を制御できなくなるに連れゴールド輸入が制限され始めた・・・・・ Source: Bloomberg China has also restricted gold import quotas before - most recently in 2016 after the yuan weakened sharply, bullion bankers said.
This could not be more ironic as SchiffGold.com reports,China bought gold for the eighth straight month in July, adding another 10 tons to its rapidly growing hoard.
The recent purchases boosted the People’s Bank of China’s gold reserves to 62.26 million ounces – about 1,945 tons. China has added about 94 tons of gold to its stash over the past eight months. 最近の買い増しで中国人民銀行のゴールド備蓄は62.26Mオンスとなったーー約1.945トンだ。過去8ヶ月で中国は94トンのゴールド備蓄を増やした。
Source: Bloomberg
The Chinese continue to add gold to their reserves in an effort to reduce their exposure to the dollar. As one analyst told Bloomberg, “It
is important for the country to diversify away from the US dollar. Over
the long run, even relatively small-scale gold purchases add up and
help to meet this objective.”
中国政府はドルの露出をへらすためにゴールド備蓄増加をつづけている。あるアナリストによると、「中国にとってドルから分散することが大切だ。長期的には、たとえ少量でもゴールド積み増しが続く。」
But China’s gold purchases, along with the buying spree in other
countries, including Russia, also aim toward a broader geopolitical
objective. They want to undermine dollar hegemony and reduce the United
States’ ability to weaponize the dollar as a foreign policy tool. As we reported earlier this month, even the mainstream is beginning to pick up on this narrative.
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. economist Howie Lee told Bloomberg last month that he expects China to continue buying gold as it seeks to become a bigger player on the world stage.
In December 2018, the People’s Bank of China announced the first
addition of gold to its reserves since 2016. The Chinese have a history
of going long periods without officially adding gold to its stores and
then suddenly revealing a large increase in its reserves. In 2009, the
People’s Bank of China stopped reporting its gold holdings. Then in June
2015, the Chinese central bank suddenly announced its gold hoard had grown by 57%.
For a little more than a year, the PBOC regularly announced additions
to its gold reserves. Chinese gold holdings rose another 185 tons over the next 16 months before the bank suddenly went silent again. 一年近くが過ぎてから、PBOCはゴールド備蓄増加を定期的に開示している。再びPBOCが沈黙する前の16ヶ月でゴールド備蓄は185トン増えた。 During the last gold-buying spree, China was pushing for the inclusion of the yuan in the International Monetary Fund’s benchmark currency basket.
Many analysts believe China holds far more gold than it officially reveals. As Jim Rickards pointed out on Mises Daily back in 2015, many
people speculate that China keeps several thousand tons of gold “off
the books” in a separate entity called the State Administration for
Foreign Exchange (SAFE). Given the political dynamics and the
ongoing trade war, it seems unlikely the Chinese suddenly stopped
increasing their gold reserves in 2016.
前回ゴールド買いに熱心だったころ、中国政府はIMFの通貨バスケットに人民元を組み込むように強く推奨していた。多くのアナリストは中国は公開量よりも遥かに多くのゴールドを備蓄していると見ている。Jim Rickardsが2015年にMises Dailyで指摘したが、多くの人は中国が「簿外」に数千トンのゴールドを保持していると推測している、別機関と鳴る、State Administration for Foreign Exchange(SAFE)にだ。現在の政治情勢と貿易戦争からして、中国が急に備蓄量増加を止めるとは思えない。
China isn’t alone in buying gold. Central bank buying helped boost overall gold demand 8% in the second quarter,
according to the World Gold Council. Globally, central banks bought
224.4 tons of gold in Q2. That brought the total on the year to 374.1
tons. China and Russia have been the biggest buyers.
The days that the dollar is a reserve currency are numbered
and the smart central banks are trying to buy as much gold as they can
before the number is up.”
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう この長文記事をRay Dalioが発表し、ゴールドは$1400から$1420へと急騰しました。GLD保持高に変化はないのでたぶん先物ポジションが進んでいます。 Ray Dalio Warns A "New Paradigm" Is Coming: "Buy Gold, Sell Stocks" by Tyler Durden Wed, 07/17/2019 - 14:44 Authored by Ray Dalio via LinkedIn, One of my investment principles is: 私の投資原則はこういうものだ: Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops. 現在のパラダイムを認識し、それがどの程度持続可能かどうか判断する、そしてパラダイムシフトがどのように起きるか、そしてその着地点を思い描く。 Over my roughly 50 years of being a global macro investor, I have observed there to be relatively long of periods (about 10 years) in which the markets and market relationships operate in a certain way (which I call “paradig...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ2週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
How Are Gold And Money Supply Related? by Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2020 - 13:00 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, M2 Money Supply is surging. Will gold follow? M2マネーサプライが急増している。ゴールドはこれを追従するだろうか? Let's investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US. よく言われるM2(米国のマネーサプライ指標)とゴールドの関係について調べてみよう。 "There’s a clear correlation between the annual growth rate in M2 money supply and the price of the yellow metal. " 「M2の年率増加速度とゴールド価格の間には明らかな相関がある。」 Clear Correlation? 明らかな相関? The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let's investigate the above idea in other time frames. このツイートの主張は私が示す最初のチャートが示すものとは異なる。というわけでこのtweetの主張を別の時間フレームで見てみよう。 Gold vs Rate of Change in M2 Money Supply ゴールド vs M2マネーサプライの変化率 If we look at longer time frames, the rate of increase in M2 theory falls flat on its face....