Authored by Gordon Watts via The Asia Times, For many poor nations, it is a long and winding road to ‘debt’ and ‘corruption.’ A
journey littered with economic potholes in the shape of China’s
signature foreign policy project which was unveiled by President Xi
Jinping six years ago.
In short, the US$1 trillion Belt and Road Initiative,
along with other foreign funding, has become a magical mystery tour,
baffling the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Or,
according to critics, a diplomatic car crash waiting to happen. 簡単に言うと、USD１T規模の一帯一路計画だ、他国投資も巻き込み、魔法の旅が始まった、世界銀行もIMFをも当惑させるものだった。もしくは、批評家に言わせると、外交的な自動車事故カークラッシュが待ち構えている。
“Compared with China’s dominance in world trade, its expanding role in global finance is poorly documented and understood,” a report released last week by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy stated.
“Over the past decades, China has exported record amounts
of capital to the rest of the world. Many of these financial flows are
not reported to the IMF, the BIS [the Bank for International
Settlements] or the World Bank,” authors Sebastian Horn,
of Munich’s Ludwig Maximilian University, Carmen M Reinhart, of the
Harvard Kennedy School in the United States, and Christoph Trebesch, of
the Kiel Institute for the World Economyin Germany, wrote.
「中国の世界貿易覇権に比べると、世界金融市場に与える影響がほとんど文書化されておらず理解もされていない、」と先週 the Kiel Institure for the World Economyが述べた。「過去１０年、中国は記録的な額の資金を海外に投じてきた。これらの資金フローの多くはIMFやBISそして世界銀行にも報告されていない、と著者たちは述べる、Munich Ludwig Maximilian UniversityのSebastian Horn，米国ハーバード大学のCarmen MReinhart、ドイツKiel Institure for the World EconomyのChristoph Trebeschたちだ。
“‘Hidden debts’ to China are especially significant for
about three dozen developing countries, and distort the risk assessment
in both policy surveillance and the market pricing of sovereign debt,” the working paper added.
The study then went on to highlight that China is now the world’s largest creditor. A breakdown of the numbers showed that lending soared to around US$5 trillion by 2018 from roughly $500 billion in 2000, which dwarfs World Bank and IMF credit lines. この報告書では中国を今や世界最大の貸主だと言う。数値を分析すると貸し出し学は２０１８年にUSD5Tにもなり、２０００年の＄５００Bから大きく増えている、これは世界銀行やIMFの貸し出し限度を遥かに超えるものだ。
“This dramatic increase in Chinese official lending and investment is almost unprecedented in peacetime history,”
the report revealed. “Lower-income developing economies mostly receive
direct loans from China’s state-owned banks, often at market rates and
backed by collateral such as oil,” the report revealed.
“Our new dataset covers a total of 1,974 Chinese loans and 2,947
Chinese grants to 152 countries from 1949 to 2017. We find that about
one-half of China’s overseas loans to the developing world are
‘hidden,’” it continued.
“A main challenge to explore China’s large-scale official lending boom is its opacity.
Unlike the United States, the Chinese government does not release data
on its lending activities abroad or those of its government entities. No
data is therefore available from the creditor side,” the working paper
added.
Indeed, the lack of transparency has become an issue with the Belt and Road Initiative. Launched
in a fanfare of state-media hype in 2013, the BRI is epic in scale and
has become an extension of China’s global ambitions.
Crucial to the program are strands of the ‘New Silk Road’
superhighways connecting the world’s second-largest economy with 70
nations and 4.4 billion people across Asia, Africa, the Middle East and
Europe in a maze of multi-billion-dollar infrastructure projects, including a web of digital links.
Yet in the past 18 months, the venture has been mired in controversy after being branded a “debt trap” by the US and its key Western allies.
ここ１８か月間、この冒険は米国やその同盟国から「債務の罠」であるという論争に巻き込まれた。
“Similarly, China does not provide details on its Belt and Road Initiative and its direct lending activities,” the study by the Kiel Institute pointed out.
「同時に、中国は一帯一路の詳細を開示せずまた直接貸し出し活動も開示しない、」と the Kiel Instituteは指摘する。
“Apart from the aforementioned omissions in reporting to the Paris
Club, China does not divulge data on its official flows with the OECD’s
Creditor Reporting System, and it is not part of the OECD [Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development] Export Credit Group, which
provides data on long- and short-term trade credit flows,” it continued.
「これまで述べたこととは別に、the Paris Clubにも報告していない、中国はOECDのCreditor Reporting Systemにもデータを開示していない、またOECDの Export Credit Groupにも参加していない、この組織は超短期貿易与信データを提供している、」と書かれている。
“With regard to cross-border banking, China recently joined
the list of countries reporting to the BIS, but the data [has] not
[been] made available on a bilateral basis and the coverage is
incomplete. Taken together, these data limitations make it very
challenging to do rigorous empirical work on China’s official capital
exports,” the report added.
A graphic from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy report. 上の図はthe Kiel InstituteがWorld Economy 報告書に掲載したものだ。
Last year, a comprehensive study released by the Center for Global Development, a Washington-based think tank, singled out 23 countries prone to “debt distress.” Of the group, Pakistan, Djibouti, the Maldives, Laos,
Mongolia, Montenegro, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were rated in the “high
risk” category.
Sri Lanka was another after it handed over control of the Hambantota
Port to China’s state-owned Merchants Port Holdings at the end of 2017
under the weight of massive loans.
昨年のことだ、ワシントンを拠点とするシンクタンク、the Center for Global Developmentから詳細な研究が開示された、２３の国が「債務に苦しみ」始めている。「ハイランク」に分類されるのは、パキスタン、ジブチ、マルディブ、ラオス、モンゴル、モンテネグロ、タジキスタンそしてキルギスタンだ。２０１７年に多額債務似苦しみ、スリランカはHambantota 港を中国国有企業 Merchants Port Holdingに明け渡した。
Stung by phrases such as “debt book diplomacy,” Beijing has
again pledged to increase transparency when it comes to commercial
funding.
During a keynote speech at the annual BRI Forum in the National Convention Center in Beijing, Xi addressed mounting concerns in front of foreign dignitaries.
“The Belt and Road is an initiative for economic cooperation, instead of a geopolitical alliance or military league, and it is an open and inclusive process rather than an exclusive bloc or ‘China club’,” he said in April.
“Everything should be done in a transparent way and we should have zero tolerance for corruption.”
「すべてが透明で且つ汚職とは無縁でなければならない。」
Since then, the ruling Communist Party has announced plans to expand its anti-corruption campaign to BRI projects.
それ以来、共産党は反腐敗キャンペーンを一帯一路プロジェクトにも拡大すると広報した。
In the past, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection had
limited involvement in the program but that is starting to change.
かつては、中央規律監視委員会CCDIがこのプロジェクトへの関与を制限していたが、方針を変え始めた。
“How can you strike hard on corruption here at home and give a
free hand to Chinese people and business groups [that are] reckless
abroad,” La Yifan, the director-general for international co-operation at the CCDI, told the Financial Times last week. “Part of the campaign is to go after corruption and stolen assets abroad. “[We aim to] create a network of law enforcement of all these Belt and Road countries,” he added.
So, will this long and winding road finally have flashing warning
signs of “debt” and “corruption?” Or will this continue to be a highway
to economic hell? BRI nations might want to buckle up for a bumpy ride.
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
１００年に一度と言われる出来事が過去２０年で二回も起き、今度が三度目になるかどうか？ Ignore The Yield Curve, They Said… 03-30-19 Written by Lance Roberts | Mar, 30, 2019 A Run For The Highs 高値に向かう Friday wrapped up the first quarter of 2019, and it was the best quarterly performance since 2009. As shown in the chart below, if you bought the bottom, you are “ killing it.” ２０１９Q1も金曜に終わり、２００９年以来最良の四半期だった。下のチャートに示すが、もしみなさんが底値でかっていたなら、「息を呑まんばかりだ」ったろう。 However, you didn’t. しかしながら、そうはしなかったでしょう。 Despite all of the media “hoopla” about the rally, the reality is that for most, they are simply getting back to even over the last year. どのメディアもこのラリーで「大騒ぎ」だが、現実を思い起こすと、これは単に昨年のレベルに戻っただけのことだ。 That is, assuming you didn’t “sell the bottom” in December, which by looking at allocation changes, certainly appears to be the case for many. ということで、みなさんは１２月の「底値で売る」ようなことをしなかったろう、それは多くの人も同じことだ。 If we deconstruct the ratio we can see the rotation a bit better この比率を分析すると資金移動をもう少しよく理解できる Not surpr...
