The reason why I say that is the money supply is up, up, and up. You know, with the efforts by these central banks to lower interest rates they’re going to be printing like crazy.”
私が皆に推奨する理由はマネーサプライが up, up and up 状態だからだ。御存知の通り、どの中央銀行も金利を下げようとしておりまた常軌を逸した紙幣印刷をしようとしている。
[Jerome Powell] is trying to pretend it’s because of concerns
about the overseas economy. It is really the US economy that is driving
the Fed. That’s why this is just the first step on the road
back to zero. And you know, it was a mistake when the Fed went back to
zero the last time; it’s going to be an even bigger mistake when they do
it next time. And they’re also going to go back to quantitative easing.
You know, they announced yesterday the end of quantitative tightening,
but the next step is to go back to QE, and QE 4 is going to be bigger than QE 1, 2 and 3 combined.”
The Fed isn’t alone on the path toward more monetary stimulus. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal,
Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn raised the prospect of new
easing measures from the European Central Bank. He said, “It’s important
that we come up with a significant and impactful policy package in
September. When you’re working with financial markets, it’s often better
to overshoot than undershoot, and better to have a very strong package
of policy measures than to tinker.”
さらなる金融刺激策に向かっているのはFEDだけではない。Wall Street Jounalのインタビューに答えて、フィンランドの中央銀行総裁Olli RehnはECBにおける新たな緩和可能性が高まっていると答えた。更に彼はこう言う、「大切なことだが、我々はインパクトの在る政策パッケージを9月に準備している。金融市場で働いているならわかるだろうが、アンダーシュートよりもオーバーシュートのほうが望ましい、そして想像を超えた強い政策パッケージが望ましい。」
During the Bloomberg interview, Mobius also addressed the proliferation of cryptocurrencies. He said he believes the rise of bitcoin and other cryptos will actually be good for gold.
You have all these currencies, new currencies coming into play. I
call them ‘psycho currencies,’ because it’s a matter of faith whether
you believe in Bitcoin or any of the other cyber-currencies. I
think with the rise of that, there’s going to be a demand for real, hard
assets, and that includes gold because gold can play a role not only as
an asset but also as a currency.”
Mobius said investors should have at least 10% of their portfolio in gold.
Mobiusは投資家に少なくともポートフォリオの10%をゴールドにするべきだと主張した。
“I’m talking about physical gold,” he said.
彼が言うには「私が話しているのは現物ゴールドだ」ということだ。
Peter Schiff has been advising this for a long time. Currently, only
about 1% of the world’s investable capital is in gold. Peter has said
it would be wise to make the move sooner rather than later.
Peter Schiffは長年こういうふうにアドバイスしてきた。現在のところ世界の投資資金の内ゴールドの占める割合は1%程度でしかない。Peterは先延ばしせずにすぐに行動することが賢明だという。
If the idea goes mainstream, and all investors go to a 10%
gold allocation, the price will skyrocket. Investors need to move
quickly to get ahead of the crowd.”
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Albert Edwards: This Was The Final Recessionary Shoe, And It Has Now Fallen by Tyler Durden Thu, 06/27/2019 - 12:45 Exactly three months ago, in late March, the 3 month-10 year spread inverted for the first time since 2007... ちょうど3か月前の3月遅くのことだ、3M10Yスプレッドが2007年以来初めて反転した・・・・ ... an event which sparked near-panic in the market as historically curve inversion has preceded the last 7 recessions. ・・・市場は準混乱状態になった、というのも歴史的に見てイールドカーブ反転が過去7回の景気後退の前兆となっているからだ。 However, while the inversion was certainly a memorable event, the question on everyone's lips is how do risk assets perform once the curve flattens and/or inverts. According to backtests from Goldman, since the mid-1980s, significant stock drawdowns (i.e. market crashes) began only when term slope started steepening after being inverted. ...
Is The Stock Market As Confused As You Are About A Recession? Written by Lance Roberts | Apr, 1, 2019 Last week, Barron’s ran an article entitled “The Stock Market Is Just As Confused About A Potential Recession As You Are?” To wit: 先週バロンズにこういう記事が掲載された「株式市場は景気後退を予感させるほどに混乱しているだろうか?」見てみよう: “Investors have long used where we are in the economic cycle to decide which stocks to buy and sell. New research from Nomura’s Joseph Mezrich flips that on its head by showing how investors can use stock performance to help determine where we are in the cycle. Too bad the market is sending mixed messages right now.” 長らく投資家は現在景気サイクルのどこに居るかを見てこの株式を売るか買うかを判断してきた。野村證券のJoseph Mezrichの最近の研究では、これが逆さで、投資家は株式のパフォーマンスを見て今景気サイクルのどこにいるかを判断している。最悪なことに現在相場は悪化改善混在のメッセージを送っている。」 But let’s be clear here; no one wants the party to end. So, despite a struggling stock market over the last year, slowing economic growth, and a collapsing yield curve, there are s...
China Injects Gargantuan 1.1 Trillion In Liquidity This Week by Tyler Durden Wed, 01/16/2019 - 22:19 Following what Bloomberg calculated was a record net reverse repo liquidity injection on Wednesday, when the PBOC injected a whopping 560 billion yuan of liquidity into the financial system via open market operations, the Chinese central bank has done it again and in Thursday's open market operation, it sold 250BN yuan in 7 Day repos (slightly below yesterday's record 350BN), and 150BN in 28 Day repos, which net of maturities resulted in a whopping net 380BN yuan ($56.2BN) liquidity injection. ブルームバーグの算出によると水曜に記録的なリバースレポ流動性注入が行われた、PBOCがなんと公開市場操作で金融システムになんと560B人民元を注入した、中国中央銀行は再び木曜に公開市場操作を行った、250B人民元の7日決済レポを売却した(昨日の350B人民元よりも少し少ない)、そして28日決済のレポを150B人民元注入した、結果としてなんと380B人民元($56.2B)の流動性注入となる。 (訳注:なんか足し算すると辻褄が合いません、ブルーム...