Last
Friday afternoon, when what few traders were not on vacation were
planning the venue of their evening alcohol consumption, we showed a remarkable analysis by Bank of America, which found that yields on the $27.8 trillion non-USD global
investment grade bond market had declined to just 16bps and that the US
share of global investment grade yields has climbed to 94%. But the
punchline is that, as we said, "non-USD sovereign yields had
dropped to just 2bps, meaning that any day now foreign sovereign debt
may have no yield at all on average."
Fast forward to Monday, when following another surge in global bond
prices, Bank of America refreshed its analysis, and foudn that the
striking trends noted last week had become even more fascinating, to wit
yields on the $27.8tn non-USD global IG fixed income market had
declined to just 11bps (down from 16bps just one day earlier)...
... and the US share of global IG yields climbed to 95%...
... meaning that any foreign investor who is desperate for even the
smallest trace of positive yield has no choice but to come to the US,
something Kyle Bass echoed earlier on CNBC: "US rates are going to zero
because they are the only DM yields with an integer in front of them."
But the biggest shock is that for Albert Edwards, vindication is here
if only outside the US for now: as per the BofA update, non-USD
sovereign yields on $19 trillion in global debt - which was a paltry but
positive +0.02% on Friday - have now turned negative on average for the
first time ever at -3bps.
The silver lining: for now the average US sovereign yield is like a
beacon for foreign investors, offering a "juicy" 1.59% but we fully
expect this number to keep dropping as offshore pension funds rush to
lock in positive yields while they can; naturally any further Fed rate
cuts or "some QE" will only bring the US D-Day that much closer.
It's not just us: commenting on the Japanification of the world, Bank
of America's Hans Mikkelsen wrote that "we continue to think there is a
wall of new money being forced into the global corporate bond market"
and adds that "the trigger is lower interest rate volatility or simply
the passage of time, as a lot of foreign investors are being charged
(negative yields) for being underinvested."
Class 8 Heavy Truck Orders Crash 68% in January by Tyler Durden Wed, 02/06/2019 - 17:25 Among the latest dismal news about the strength of the US economy, on Tuesday ACT Research released preliminary truck orders for January 2019 which showed that Class 8 truck orders collapsed an astounding 68% for January. The decline is being attributed to a 300,000+ vehicle backlog potentially prompting fleets to halt purchases in the near term. 米国経済に関し最近憂鬱なニュースが多い中で、火曜にACT researchが２０１９年１月のトラック発注を開示した、１月にClass 8のトラック発注がなんと６８％も急落した。この発注減は短期的に３００，０００台超の潜在在庫を生み出す。 Specifically, in January Class 8 net orders were 15,800 units (14,700 SA; 176,400 SAAR), down 68% YoY and down 26% MoM. Class 5- 7 January net orders were 23,400...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう "On The Precipice" by Tyler Durden Mon, 06/24/2019 - 14:30 Authored by Kevin Ludolph via Crescat Capital, Dear Investors: The US stock market is retesting its all-time highs at record valuations yet again. We strongly believe it is poised to fail. The problem for bullish late-cycle momentum investors trying to play a breakout to new highs here is the oncoming freight train of deteriorating macro-economic conditions. 米国株式は記録的バリエーションのもとで再度過去最高を試している。私どもはこれが失敗すると強く信じている。景気拡大終盤で強気のモメンタム投資家が新高値を試そうとしていることの問題は、マクロ経済条件の悪化にある。 US corporate profit growth, year-over-year, for the S&P 500 already fully evaporated in the first quarter of 2019 and is heading toward outright decline for the full year based on earnings estimate revision trends. Note the alligator jaws divergence in the chart be...
中国が債務増加していることはたしかです。ただ日本の例を日銀資金循環報告でみると家計、３２０兆円、民間非金融機関１，７８５兆円、一般政府 １，２８４兆円となります。合算すると３，３００兆円にもなり、GDPの６００％を超えています。 https://www.boj.or.jp/statistics/sj/sjexp.pdf この記事の統計と同じ考え方で数値を採用しているのかどうか気になります。 加えて、この資金循環報告に書かれている海外資産というのが内数なのか外数なのか？私にはよくわかりません。当然海外債務も結構な額になります。一度日銀資金循環 図表１を見てください。詳しい方に教えていただければ。 この中国のたどる道は昔のソ連とかMMTと同様で、自国通貨ならいくら発行しても倒産はしない、というか為政者が痛みに耐えることができず緩和を続けるというものです。でも最終的には限界点に達します。ソ連は建国から崩壊まで７０年かかりました。 自由主義経済なら立ち行かなくなった企業は退場してもらうというのが減速なのですが、これがうまくゆかないわけです。 でも日本は中国のはるか先を言っているように見えます。ちょっと検索したのですが、日本の債務に関しては政府債務に言及したものばかりで、この記事のように民間、個人まで総合的に記載しているのは日銀の資金循環統計しか見つけることができませんでした。 China Continues To Pile Debt On Top Of More Debt Written by Jesse Colombo | Feb, 27, 2019 Like many countries, China attempted to rein in its debt growth over the past couple years, but ultimately gave up and is now back to piling on even more debt. Bloomberg reports – 多くの国と同様に、中国もここ２年ほど債務増加を抑えようとしてきた、しかし結局の所諦めてしまい、今や更に債務を積み上げている。ブルームバーグ記事ーー For almost two years,...
