Last
Friday afternoon, when what few traders were not on vacation were
planning the venue of their evening alcohol consumption, we showed a remarkable analysis by Bank of America, which found that yields on the $27.8 trillion non-USD global
investment grade bond market had declined to just 16bps and that the US
share of global investment grade yields has climbed to 94%. But the
punchline is that, as we said, "non-USD sovereign yields had
dropped to just 2bps, meaning that any day now foreign sovereign debt
may have no yield at all on average."
Fast forward to Monday, when following another surge in global bond
prices, Bank of America refreshed its analysis, and foudn that the
striking trends noted last week had become even more fascinating, to wit
yields on the $27.8tn non-USD global IG fixed income market had
declined to just 11bps (down from 16bps just one day earlier)...
... and the US share of global IG yields climbed to 95%...
... meaning that any foreign investor who is desperate for even the
smallest trace of positive yield has no choice but to come to the US,
something Kyle Bass echoed earlier on CNBC: "US rates are going to zero
because they are the only DM yields with an integer in front of them."
But the biggest shock is that for Albert Edwards, vindication is here
if only outside the US for now: as per the BofA update, non-USD
sovereign yields on $19 trillion in global debt - which was a paltry but
positive +0.02% on Friday - have now turned negative on average for the
first time ever at -3bps.
The silver lining: for now the average US sovereign yield is like a
beacon for foreign investors, offering a "juicy" 1.59% but we fully
expect this number to keep dropping as offshore pension funds rush to
lock in positive yields while they can; naturally any further Fed rate
cuts or "some QE" will only bring the US D-Day that much closer.
It's not just us: commenting on the Japanification of the world, Bank
of America's Hans Mikkelsen wrote that "we continue to think there is a
wall of new money being forced into the global corporate bond market"
and adds that "the trigger is lower interest rate volatility or simply
the passage of time, as a lot of foreign investors are being charged
(negative yields) for being underinvested."
The Next Decade Will Likely Foil Most Financial Plans by Tyler Durden Tuesday, Jan 26, 2021 - 15:20 Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, There are many individuals in the market today who have never been through an actual “bear market.” These events, while painful, are necessary to “reset the table” for outsized market returns in the future. Without such an event, it is highly likely the next decade will foil most financial plans. 現在の市場参加者の多くは本当の「ベアマーケット」を経験していない。こういう事が起きると、痛みを伴うが、将来の大きなリターンを可能にするために必要なちゃぶ台返しとなる。これがないと、多くのファイナンシャルプランは今後１０年ひどいことになりそうだ。 No. The March 2020 correction was not a bear market. As noted: ２０２０年３月の調整はベアマーケットと呼べるようなものではなかった。以前にも指摘したが： A bull market is when the price of the market is trending higher over a long-term period. ブル相場とは長期に渡り市場価格が上昇するものだ。 A bear market is when the previous advance breaks, and prices begin to trend lower. ベア相場とはこれまでの上昇が止まり、市場価格が下落し始めることだ。 The chart belo...
The Fed And The Treasury Have Now Merged by Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2020 - 14:21 Submitted by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research As I've argued, the Fed and the Treasury merged. Powell said this was the case today (from his Q&A): 私はこれまでも申し上げてきたが、すでにFEDと財務省は一体化している。Powell自身がこれに当たると今日話した（彼の Q&Aでのことだ）： These programs we are using, under the laws, we do these, as I mentioned in my remarks, with the consent of the Treasury Secretary and the fiscal backing from the congress through the Treasury. And we are doing it to provide credit to households, businesses, state and local governments. As we are directed by the Congress. We are using that fiscal backstop to absorb any losses we have. 我々FEDが今行っている一連のプログラムは、法に基づいており、それを実行している、私が注意喚起したが、 財務長官の同意を得ており、財政に関しては議会の承認も得ている。私どもは家計、ビジネス、連邦地方政府に貸付を行っている。議会の意向のもとに我々は行動している。以下ほどに損失が生じようともそれを財政的に支えている。 Our ability is limited...
