According to Fathom Consulting,
a global independent macro research consultancy, it's proprietary China
Momentum Indicator 2.0 has slowed to 4.6% in June, the lowest reading since Aug. 2016.
独立系世界マクロコンサルタント Fathom Consultingによると、彼ら独自のChina Momentum Indicator 2.0が６月に４．６％まで減速した、２０１５年８月以来の低位だ。
There is also a growing gap between the China Momentum Indicator 2.0 at 4.6% and official GDP data at 6.2%. Might suggest China's economy hasn't yet bottomed, could continue to decline through 2H19 into 1H20.
China Momentum Indicator 2.0の４．６％と公式GDPデータ６．２％の間には大きな乖離がある。ということは中国経済はまだ底入れしていないことを示唆している、２０１９H2から２０２０H1にかけてさらに下落の可能性がある。
Gary Cohn, the former chief economic advisor to Donald Trump, has
said the slowdown predates the trade war and reflects a strategic
decision by China to rebalance the economy.
トランプ政権の元主任経済アドバイザ Gary Cohnによると、中国経済減速は貿易戦争前から始まっており、中国の経済再構築戦略を反映している。
Fathom notes that China's economy was even slowing before the rebalancing. Fathomの報告では、中国経済は再構築前から減速していた。
The global macro research firm said, "with the consumer share of total import demand on a downward trend since 2016, we also find little evidence to suggest that China is successfully rebalancing."
To combat dangerous crosscurrents of the trade war disrupting global
supply chains in and out of China, Chinese policymakers resorted to the
same playbook as before, pump the economy with record amounts of the
stimulus earlier in the year.
Currency depreciation came into the picture when President Trump
escalated the trade war by raising tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200
billion of Chinese goods in May. Then a massive devaluation of the
renminbi followed in early August, when the president slapped 10%
tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, effective Sept. 1.
"Trade talks are continuing, and during the talks the U.S. will
start, on Sept. 1, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the
remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China
into our Country...We look forward to continuing our positive dialogue
with China on a comprehensive Trade Deal, and feel that the future
between our two countries will be a very bright one!" Trump said in a
tweet last month.
Since the trade war began last March, the renminbi has
weakened 13% against the U.S. dollar, neutralizing some of the tariffs
imposed by the U.S. on imports from China. 昨年３月に貿易戦争が始まって以来、人民元は対米ドルで１３％弱くなっている、これが米国の関税強化をある程度緩和している。
Currency devaluation undermines hopes for a soft landing, while
further infuriating the Trump administration who has recently branded
China as a currency manipulator.
And for more bad news, China has said its rebalancing will continue
through 2020 and offered a pessimistic view of how Beijing won't sign a
trade deal until after the November 2020 election. This would almost
guarantee China is allowing its export economy to weaken while
stimulating its domestic economy, all in the attempt to trigger a
recession in the U.S. to diminish President Trump's probabilities of
getting reelected.
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
結局、中国は隣国日本で２０年前に起きたことを学んでいなかったということでしょう、というかどの国もどの政府も十分成熟するまでは「わかっちゃいるけどやめられない」ということでしょうね、きっと。 Spooked By Apple? Wait ‘Til China’s Bubble Bursts Written by Jesse Colombo | Jan, 3, 2019 Apple stock plunged nearly 10% on Thursday after the company cut its revenue forecast due to slowing iPhone sales in China. Apple’s woes dragged U.S. stock indices lower by more than 2% as fears of a more extensive China-driven slowdown spread. アップルの株価は火曜に約１０％下落した、同社が中国でのiPhone売上原則を予想したためだ。アップルの弱さが米国株式指数を２％以上押し下げた、中国主導でさらなる原則が広がるのではという懸念からだ。 From the New York Times : ニューヨークタイムスによると： For years, no matter what was happening elsewhere, global companies bet billions upon billions of dollars that China’s consumers would keep spending money. 長年、他国で何が起きようとも多国籍企業は中国消費は巨額を維持することに賭けてきた。 Now, just when the world economy could use their financial firepower, they are no longer so quick to open their wallets. 今や、世界経済が金融弾薬を用いてももはや彼らの財布を緩めることはできない。 The latest sign of a slowdown in...
１００年に一度と言われる出来事が過去２０年で二回も起き、今度が三度目になるかどうか？ Ignore The Yield Curve, They Said… 03-30-19 Written by Lance Roberts | Mar, 30, 2019 A Run For The Highs 高値に向かう Friday wrapped up the first quarter of 2019, and it was the best quarterly performance since 2009. As shown in the chart below, if you bought the bottom, you are “ killing it.” ２０１９Q1も金曜に終わり、２００９年以来最良の四半期だった。下のチャートに示すが、もしみなさんが底値でかっていたなら、「息を呑まんばかりだ」ったろう。 However, you didn’t. しかしながら、そうはしなかったでしょう。 Despite all of the media “hoopla” about the rally, the reality is that for most, they are simply getting back to even over the last year. どのメディアもこのラリーで「大騒ぎ」だが、現実を思い起こすと、これは単に昨年のレベルに戻っただけのことだ。 That is, assuming you didn’t “sell the bottom” in December, which by looking at allocation changes, certainly appears to be the case for many. ということで、みなさんは１２月の「底値で売る」ようなことをしなかったろう、それは多くの人も同じことだ。 If we deconstruct the ratio we can see the rotation a bit better この比率を分析すると資金移動をもう少しよく理解できる Not surpr...
