Via SchiffGold.com, Gold has continued to
push upward. The latest catalyst was another escalation of the trade
war. Gold briefly moved above $1,550 in dollar terms. But it has done
even better in relation to other currencies. In fact, the yellow metal is at record highs in nearly every currency except the dollar.
ゴールドは上がり続けている。直近のキッカケは貿易戦争激化だった。短期間だがゴールドは＄１５５０を超えた。しかし他国通貨ではもっとすばらしい。実際、殆どの通貨でゴールドは過去最高だ、唯一の例外がドルだ。
Peter Schiff appeared on RT America on Aug. 26 to talk about it. He
said he thinks gold is eventually going to make new highs in the dollar
as well, and this time, it’s not going to stop going up.
Peter Schiffは ８つき２６日にRT Americaでインタビューを受けた。彼が言うにはやがてドルでも新高値になるだろう、そして今回は留まるところを知らない。
Peter said he doesn’t necessarily think that recession fears, in and of themselves, are pushing gold higher.
They’re worried about what the central banks, and in particular the
Federal Reserve, is going to do about the next recession. That’s why the
price of gold is going up - because the Fed is going to be going back
to zero; they’re going to be going back to quantitative easing and all
of this is good for gold.”
Peter noted that gold has been making record highs in almost every currency except the dollar.
Peterはこう述べる、ドル以外の殆どの通貨でゴールドは記録的高値になった。
And I think ultimately, we’re going to make a high in the dollar,
probably before too long. And you know, when the Fed did quantitative
easing the first time, the reason that the gold rally stopped at $1,900
was because everybody believed that the Fed had an exit strategy and
that they could reverse the process, normalize interest rates, unwind
their balance sheet. When they realize that they were mistaken to
believe that, that there is no exit strategy, that it’s
basically QE forever, that the balance sheet is going to grow into
perpetuity — gold’s not going to stop next time. It’s going to keep on
going.”
As far as the trade war goes, Peter called it “a bit of a distraction.”
Peterに言わせれば、貿易戦争など「ささいなものだ」。
The US economy is going into recession regardless of what happens
with trade... The trade war certainly makes a bad situation worse, but
it was a bad situation anyway. And I think a lot of people have some
false optimism that all we have to do is end the trade war and we’ll
avert recession. That’s not going to happen.”
Peter said he doesn’t expect the Chinese to simply surrender in the
trade war. In fact, he sees signs that the Chinese are digging in their
heels and believes the trade war could continue on beyond the next
election.
Peter said he doesn’t know what the Trump administration could do to
stave off the recession. He reiterated that recession is inevitable and
the problem is the more they delay it, the worse it’s going to be. He
said he thinks the downturn will start before the election and Trump
likely won’t be reelected.
I think the Fed will do what it can to avert it. They will go back to
zero. They will do more QE. We may even get some type of tax cut or
increased government spending in a vain effort to try to stimulate the
economy. But that’s not the type of stimulus the economy needs. We need
less government, not more government. We actually need higher interest
rates, not lower interest rates. But even if we do the right thing,
that’s not going to avert the recession because the recession is part of
the cure, and we need to embrace it, not resist it. Unfortunately,
politicians will never do that because they are more concerned about
their reelection that the long-term health of the economy.”
So, where should the average Joe put his money? Gold?
では、平均的な米国人はどこにお金を投じればよいのだろう？ ゴールド？
Well, I think gold’s going up whether or not the stock markets crash.
In fact, the only way to prevent the stock markets from crashing is to
print a lot of money and slash rates, which is really good for gold. So
yes, people should be buying gold. Don’t think you’ve missed the
boat if it’s at $1,530 and you haven’t bought. We’re going a lot
higher. Remember, we were at $1,900, so we’re well off the highs. There
aren’t that many assets that you can find that are off their highs like
gold, other than silver, which is probably an even better buy. It’s
much further off its high.”
Peter said investors should stay away from the dollar, not only
because of the looming recession, but because its days as a reserve
currency could be numbered. Peter noted that even the Bank of England
president has said the dollar should no longer be the reserve.
Gold is going to be the reserve. Gold was the reserve before the dollar and it will be the reserve after the dollar.
So, people should buy it now. Don’t wait for that to happen because
when we remonetize gold, the price will be much, much higher than it is
today.”
この記事よりももっと詳しい分析がこちらにあります。： https://www.adamtownsend.me/china-financial-stability-report/ 元データは毎年開示されるPBOCの英文報告に基づいたものです： http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/130736/index.html ただ、毎年２００ページ超もあり、そう簡単に読みこなせるものではありません。この記事の表のようなわかりやすい形で整理して開示はしていません。この記事の表にはどの年の何ページに書かれたデータであるかが示されています。日本語ネットの記事ではシャードーバンクの規模がよくわからないというものが多いですが、毎年PBOC自らがシャドーバンク規模を自ら認めています。その規模は驚くものです。 この記事に書かれている数値は驚くばかりです。ここまで信用創造をしているのかと驚きます。そりゃ昨年来RRRの低減とかの緩和策を連発してますが、効果が無いのももっともです。これまでの緩和の規模からすると昨年のこの手の緩和はその規模が全く足りないですね。一年以上前にZeroHedgeで中国企業の殆どがミンスキーポイントを超えている、企業の営業利益で債務金利が賄えず利払いのために新たな借金をしている、というのが詳しくデータで示されていましたが、なるほどなと思います。 The Black Swan So Ugly No One Will Talk About It by Phoenix Capita… Fri, 01/11/2019 - 11:55 The biggest black swan facing the financial system is China. 金融システムが直面する最大のブラックスワンは中国だ。 China has been the primary driver of growth for the global economy since the 2008 Crisis...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton February 7, 2020 2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting. While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact. Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September. And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher. When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners. As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity. For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult. ...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
