China's manufacturing PMI slumped deeper into contraction
on Thursday -- as economic growth in the country fell to its weakest
pace in three decades. The economic slowdown, coupled with massive
corporate leverage, has created a ticking debt time bomb, which could
explode in the next global recession.
The unraveling and coming debt crisis in China
will take a series of corporate debt defaults to spook investors, and
perhaps, the first series of defaults has already started.
The latest causality is Shandong-based steelmaker Xiwang Group Co.,
who defaulted on a $142 million bond last week, has sparked contagion
fear with other companies in the same region, reported Bloomberg.
直近の犠牲者は山東省鉄鋼メーカー Xiwang Group Co.だ、先週$142Mの不当たりを出した、これが当地の他企業にも連鎖するのでは、とブルームバーグは伝える。
Then on Wednesday, Shandong Sanxing Group Co.'s 2021 dollar bond and
China Hongqiao Group Ltd.'s dollar bond due 2023 plummeted to their
lowest levels ever as contagion from Xiwang's default continued to
frighten investors.
水曜に、山東省Sanxing Group Co.の2021年満期ドル建て債権と中国Hongqiao Groupのドル建て2023年満期債権が過去最低レベルの値を付けた、Xiwangの倒産が投資家を驚かせたためだ。
"Xiwang's default onshore has raised concerns that other privately
owned enterprises in Shandong, particularly those from the same
locality, may have been associated with the firm," said Wu Qiong,
executive director at BOC International Holdings Ltd. in Hong Kong, who
spoke with Bloomberg.
Fitch Ratings said the default rate of all Chinese issuers in the
first three quarters of this year was 1.03%. By historical standards,
the default rate is much higher than last year. Most of the firms
skipping out on bond payments were private entities.
The cash crunch comes at a time when overleveraged companies in China
are reeling from a global synchronized slowdown and a controlled
deleveraging period by the government to create a soft bottom in the
economy.
中国の過剰債務企業は世界同時減速と政府の債務削減政策でよろめき現金不足となっている。
"Defaults are likely to continue rising, as many medium- and
small-sized private firms are facing significant refinancing pressures,"
Zhang Shuncheng, associate director of corporate research at Fitch,
said in an interview. "Private companies suffer from many problems in
their own operations, not to mention the impact from the slowing economy
and tight credit environment."
China's corporate sector downfall is overleverage, taken on during
the global synchronized recovery. Now, a synchronized decline, these
firms are starting to deleverage, adding to the downward pressure in the
economy.
Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass, the CIO of Hayman Capital Management,
has famously said China's coming economic crash could be three to four
times bigger than the 2008 subprime crisis.
ヘッジファンドマネジャーのKyle Bass、Hayman Capital ManagementのCIOだが、彼はこれからの中国経済の破綻に言及することで有名だ、彼によるとその規模は2008年のサブプライム当時の規模の3,4倍はあるという。
Bass said in August, China's "recklessly built" banking system could come tumbling down in the next global recession.
As long as Beijing refuses to spark a massive credit injection spree,
the global economy will continue to falter -- this could usher in the
next global crisis, one where China's corporate sector implodes, well
that's at least what Bass thinks...
現在のCPI推移をみるとFEDの言う2%目標に収まりそうにはありません。実際現在の金利政策はまだ緩和的で、政府の大判振る舞いもあり、M2はコロナ騒動以前のトレンドを大きく超えたまま漸増し始めています。大統領選挙もあり、パウエルは今後利上げはないと言明しており、利下げ期待が高まっています。 In Gold We Trust 2024(20ページ目)では1970年代のインフレ推移と現在2024年のインフレ推移を重ね、もっと大きなインフレがこれから来そうだと示唆しています。 https://ingoldwetrust.report/in-gold-we-trust-report/?lang=en 当時は数年間でゴールド価格は7倍になりました。直近のCPIのピーク値と比べると、今回は次のピーク、今後数年、でゴールドが5倍程度になることが期待されます。 ミシガン大学の調査ではインフレがFED目標の2%に落ち着くと期待されず、最近では期待値が増え始めています。
Global Warming Fraud Exposed In Pictures by Tyler Durden Tue, 10/01/2019 - 12:25 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Climate change alarmists have convinced the public something must be done now. The reports are easily debunked as fraud ... 気候変動主張者たちは今行動を実行せねばと確信している。その手の報告書はでたらめだということが簡単に解る・・・・ My Gift To Climate Alarmists 気候変動活動家への贈り物 Tony Heller does an amazing job of showing how the fraud takes place in his video entitled My Gift To Climate Alarmists. Tony Heller は素晴らしい仕事をした、このビデオを見ると彼らの主張が如何にでたらめかということがよく分かる、そのタイトルは My Gift To Climate Alarmists。 The video is only 12.51 minutes long. このビデオはわずか12.51分しかない。(訳注:画像・動画がいっぱいで英語がわからなくても理解できる) Cherry Picking 例を上げると Heatwaves increasing since 1960 熱波発生は1960年以降増えているという Arctic ice declining since 1979 北極海氷は1979年以来減っているという Wildfires increa...