中国で与信危機が顕在化する、鉄鋼メーカーの倒産が連鎖倒産を起こすのではという懸念を引き起こす

Credit Crisis Unfolds In China As Steelmaker Default Sparks Contagion Fears 

by Tyler Durden

Thu, 10/31/2019 - 20:25

China's manufacturing PMI slumped deeper into contraction on Thursday -- as economic growth in the country fell to its weakest pace in three decades. The economic slowdown, coupled with massive corporate leverage, has created a ticking debt time bomb, which could explode in the next global recession.

木曜発表の中国製造業PMIは大きく収斂域に達したーー中国の経済成長はこの３０年で最弱のものだ。経済減速、企業の巨額レバレッジが相まって債務時限爆弾が時を刻む、次の世界的景気後退では爆発するだろう。



The unraveling and coming debt crisis in China will take a series of corporate debt defaults to spook investors, and perhaps, the first series of defaults has already started.

中国の次の債務危機混乱では一連の企業債務倒産が投資家を驚かせることだろう、そしてたぶん、一連の倒産の端緒はすでに始まっている。


The latest causality is Shandong-based steelmaker Xiwang Group Co., who defaulted on a $142 million bond last week, has sparked contagion fear with other companies in the same region, reported Bloomberg.

直近の犠牲者は山東省鉄鋼メーカー Xiwang Group Co.だ、先週＄１４２Mの不当たりを出した、これが当地の他企業にも連鎖するのでは、とブルームバーグは伝える。

Then on Wednesday, Shandong Sanxing Group Co.'s 2021 dollar bond and China Hongqiao Group Ltd.'s dollar bond due 2023 plummeted to their lowest levels ever as contagion from Xiwang's default continued to frighten investors.

水曜に、山東省Sanxing Group Co.の２０２１年満期ドル建て債権と中国Hongqiao Groupのドル建て２０２３年満期債権が過去最低レベルの値を付けた、Xiwangの倒産が投資家を驚かせたためだ。

"Xiwang's default onshore has raised concerns that other privately owned enterprises in Shandong, particularly those from the same locality, may have been associated with the firm," said Wu Qiong, executive director at BOC International Holdings Ltd. in Hong Kong, who spoke with Bloomberg. 

「中国本土企業Xiwangの倒産が他の山東省民間企業への懸念を増やした、特に同じ地区の企業に対してだ、Xiwangを連想するためだ、」とWu Qiongは言う、彼は香港を拠点とするBOC Internationa Holdings Ltd.の取締役だ、彼がブルームバーグに語った。

China's onshore credit markets continue to erupt with stress after 2019 defaulted bonds have already hit 2018 highs.

中国本土の与信市場は引き続き大きなストレスを抱えている、２０１９年の債権償還失敗数はすでに２０１８年通年よりも大きい。



Fitch Ratings said the default rate of all Chinese issuers in the first three quarters of this year was 1.03%. By historical standards, the default rate is much higher than last year. Most of the firms skipping out on bond payments were private entities.

格付会社フィッチによると中国の債券発行体の倒産は今年の３四半期ですでに１．０３％にもなる。歴史的に見て、今年の倒産率は昨年よりも大きい。債権返済不能企業の多くは民間企業だ。

The cash crunch comes at a time when overleveraged companies in China are reeling from a global synchronized slowdown and a controlled deleveraging period by the government to create a soft bottom in the economy.

中国の過剰債務企業は世界同時減速と政府の債務削減政策でよろめき現金不足となっている。

"Defaults are likely to continue rising, as many medium- and small-sized private firms are facing significant refinancing pressures," Zhang Shuncheng, associate director of corporate research at Fitch, said in an interview. "Private companies suffer from many problems in their own operations, not to mention the impact from the slowing economy and tight credit environment."

「倒産は今後も増えるだろう、中小民間企業は債務借り換えが極端に難しくなっている、」とZhang Shucheng、Fitchの参事は言う。「民間企業は多くの問題を抱えている、言うまでもなく、経済減速や与信引き締め環境のためだ。」


China's corporate sector downfall is overleverage, taken on during the global synchronized recovery. Now, a synchronized decline, these firms are starting to deleverage, adding to the downward pressure in the economy.

中国企業の転落原因は過剰債務だ、世界景気回復時に生じたものだ。今や、世界同時景気減速となり、これらの企業は債務縮小を迫られている、さらに景気減速圧力が重なる。


Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass, the CIO of Hayman Capital Management, has famously said China's coming economic crash could be three to four times bigger than the 2008 subprime crisis.

ヘッジファンドマネジャーのKyle Bass、Hayman Capital ManagementのCIOだが、彼はこれからの中国経済の破綻に言及することで有名だ、彼によるとその規模は２００８年のサブプライム当時の規模の３，４倍はあるという。

Bass said in August, China's "recklessly built" banking system could come tumbling down in the next global recession.

８月にBassが言うところでは、中国の「向こう見ずに積み上げた」銀行システムは次の世界同時景気後退でひっくり返ることになるだろう、という。

As long as Beijing refuses to spark a massive credit injection spree, the global economy will continue to falter -- this could usher in the next global crisis, one where China's corporate sector implodes, well that's at least what Bass thinks...

北京政府が巨額の与信注入を回避する限り、世界経済は停滞するだろうーーおｋれが次の世界経済危機の先導役となる、中国の企業部門は内裂する、これがBassの考えるシナリオだ・・