China's manufacturing PMI slumped deeper into contraction
on Thursday -- as economic growth in the country fell to its weakest
pace in three decades. The economic slowdown, coupled with massive
corporate leverage, has created a ticking debt time bomb, which could
explode in the next global recession.
The unraveling and coming debt crisis in China
will take a series of corporate debt defaults to spook investors, and
perhaps, the first series of defaults has already started.
The latest causality is Shandong-based steelmaker Xiwang Group Co.,
who defaulted on a $142 million bond last week, has sparked contagion
fear with other companies in the same region, reported Bloomberg.
直近の犠牲者は山東省鉄鋼メーカー Xiwang Group Co.だ、先週$142Mの不当たりを出した、これが当地の他企業にも連鎖するのでは、とブルームバーグは伝える。
Then on Wednesday, Shandong Sanxing Group Co.'s 2021 dollar bond and
China Hongqiao Group Ltd.'s dollar bond due 2023 plummeted to their
lowest levels ever as contagion from Xiwang's default continued to
frighten investors.
水曜に、山東省Sanxing Group Co.の2021年満期ドル建て債権と中国Hongqiao Groupのドル建て2023年満期債権が過去最低レベルの値を付けた、Xiwangの倒産が投資家を驚かせたためだ。
"Xiwang's default onshore has raised concerns that other privately
owned enterprises in Shandong, particularly those from the same
locality, may have been associated with the firm," said Wu Qiong,
executive director at BOC International Holdings Ltd. in Hong Kong, who
spoke with Bloomberg.
Fitch Ratings said the default rate of all Chinese issuers in the
first three quarters of this year was 1.03%. By historical standards,
the default rate is much higher than last year. Most of the firms
skipping out on bond payments were private entities.
The cash crunch comes at a time when overleveraged companies in China
are reeling from a global synchronized slowdown and a controlled
deleveraging period by the government to create a soft bottom in the
economy.
中国の過剰債務企業は世界同時減速と政府の債務削減政策でよろめき現金不足となっている。
"Defaults are likely to continue rising, as many medium- and
small-sized private firms are facing significant refinancing pressures,"
Zhang Shuncheng, associate director of corporate research at Fitch,
said in an interview. "Private companies suffer from many problems in
their own operations, not to mention the impact from the slowing economy
and tight credit environment."
China's corporate sector downfall is overleverage, taken on during
the global synchronized recovery. Now, a synchronized decline, these
firms are starting to deleverage, adding to the downward pressure in the
economy.
Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass, the CIO of Hayman Capital Management,
has famously said China's coming economic crash could be three to four
times bigger than the 2008 subprime crisis.
ヘッジファンドマネジャーのKyle Bass、Hayman Capital ManagementのCIOだが、彼はこれからの中国経済の破綻に言及することで有名だ、彼によるとその規模は2008年のサブプライム当時の規模の3,4倍はあるという。
Bass said in August, China's "recklessly built" banking system could come tumbling down in the next global recession.
As long as Beijing refuses to spark a massive credit injection spree,
the global economy will continue to falter -- this could usher in the
next global crisis, one where China's corporate sector implodes, well
that's at least what Bass thinks...
最後の2段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton February 7, 2020 2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting. While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact. Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September. And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher. When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners. As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity. For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult. ...
最後の2段落だけ訳を入れておきます。 Gold-Stock Bull Breakout! Adam Hamilton April 24, 2020 2845 Words The gold miners’ stocks surged to a major bull-market breakout this week! Powering decisively above their years-old secular resistance is a hugely-important technical event. It proves this gold-stock bull is alive and well, greatly improves sentiment, and puts this high-flying sector on countless more traders’ radars. New bull highs fuel self-feeding bullish psychology, as speculators and investors love chasing winners. The gold miners’ stocks are essentially leveraged plays on gold, since its price overwhelmingly drives their earnings and thus ultimately stock prices. So gold-stock bulls and bears mirror and amplify gold’s own major market cycles. Today’s secular gold bull began marching in mid-December 2015, birthed from choking despair. Gold stocks’ ...
最後の2段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 Gold Stocks Remain Cheap Adam Hamilton December 20, 2019 2800 Words The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a lackluster few months. That’s a disheartening contrast to their powerful summer upleg on gold’s bull-market breakout. While this healthy gold-stock correction likely isn’t over yet, the gold miners remain very undervalued relative to the metal they produce. That means they still have massive upside left in this secular gold bull. Sentiment just needs rebalancing before its next upleg. In recent months I’ve written a lot about gold’s correction, which is naturally driving a parallel one in the gold miners’ stocks. I’ve explained why speculators’ positioning in gold futures, gold’s dominant primary short-term driver, remains bearish with potential selling vastly outweighing likely buying. I’ve shown how shallow ...
最後の2段落だけ訳をいれておきました。 Fed’s Risky QE4 Stock Ramp Adam Hamilton January 31, 2020 3567 Words The US stock markets dramatically surged mostly in a straight line since mid-October. This extraordinary rally started when the Federal Reserve announced it would resume expanding its balance sheet for the first time in years. The deluge of new liquidity from that quantitative-easing bond buying has again acted like rocket fuel for stock markets. After shooting vertically they are in real trouble when the Fed pulls back. In early October the flagship US S&P 500 stock index (SPX) slumped to 2888. That was a mild 4.6% pullback from late July’s latest record high. The SPX was still having a great year though, up 15.2% year-to-date at that point thanks to extreme Fed easing . After the SPX had plunged 19.8% mostly in Q4’18 in a severe near-bear cor...
最後の2段落だけ訳を入れました。 Gold-Miner Valuations Adam Hamilton January 24, 2020 3132 Words The gold miners’ stocks have spent the past half-year mired in a high consolidation. They haven’t been able to break out, but aren’t breaking down either. This technical purgatory is working to slowly bleed off overboughtness and rebalance sentiment. This necessary process to eradicate greed from the last upleg peak is never exciting. But today’s low gold-miner valuations reveal great upside potential in their next upleg. The world’s leading and dominant gold-stock trading vehicle and benchmark is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund. It commanded $13.2b in net assets in the middle of this week, 2.7x larger than its next-biggest competitor GDXJ. The major gold miners’ stocks included in GDX soared this past summer, blasting higher after...