Authored by Kyle Bass and Daniel Babich, op-ed via The Daily Caller,
Our advice to President Trump ahead of the next stage in the U.S.-China trade talks is encapsulated in a Chinese proverb: “Patience is a bitter plant, but its fruit is sweet.” 私どもはトランプ大統領に米中貿易交渉の次の段階でこういうふうにアドバイスしよう、中国の諺に基づいている：「忍耐は苦い苗木だ、しかしその果実は甘いものだ。」 The threat to food availability and security from Chinese pig
Ebola and fall armyworm will prevent China from aggressively using
tariffs as an offensive weapon against the U.S. over the coming year.
Just as the poor structure of China’s leveraged economy necessitates
that they return to the negotiating table with the U.S. — the largest
buyer of its goods — food insecurity in China will oblige them to put
aside their main retaliatory tool and start earnestly negotiating with
the U.S.
President Trump needs to both recognize his leverage in these trade talks and have the confidence that China’s primary source of counter-leverage has a short expiration date. トランプ大統領は貿易交渉におけるこの大きな追い風と、中国のレバレッジ解消はすぐに尽き果てることを認識せねばならない。
The structural state of China’s economy is in peril after a decade of
reckless credit growth. Following the great financial crisis, the
Chinese government pursued economic growth at all costs, which has left
them with high financial leverage and bad debts. As a result,
China’s U.S. dollar shortage has become acute. These structural problems
leave the Chinese economy and financial system vulnerable to a
slowdown. １０年にも及ぶ無謀な与信成長で中国の経済構造は危険にさらされている。あの金融危機後、中国政府はなりふり構わず経済成長を推進した、これが大きな金融レバレッジと巨額不良債権を生み出した。その結果として、中国の米ドル不足が深刻になっている。このような構造的問題で中国経済と金融システムは景気減速に脆弱だ。
In response to the imposition of U.S. tariffs, China retaliated by
imposing tariffs on 99% of all U.S. agricultural exports. These were
devised to hurt senators who represent agricultural states ahead of the
2020 election. Understandably, U.S. farmers and their political
representatives have reacted with great alarm.
Currently U.S. pork
exports to China are subject to a 62% tariff and soybeans are subject to
a 27% tariff, while chicken exports are outright banned. U.S. farmers
are hoping these tariffs will be lifted imminently as part of an
eventual trade deal.
Regardless of the outcome of negotiations between Presidents Trump
and Xi at the upcoming G-20 meeting in Osaka, Japan on June 28, the
pain inflicted on U.S. farmers by China is just short-term and soon
will be over. The terrible reality for the Chinese is that China is
facing an unprecedented combination of agricultural challenges:
Chinese pig Ebola (also known as African swine fever) and fall
armyworm. These threats have already impacted Chinese agricultural
production and will take an even greater toll in 2020.
This file photograph taken on August 10, 2018, shows pigs resting
in a pen at a pig farm in Yiyang county, in China’s central Henan
province. – Unprecedented situation in the world meat market, the
ravages of the African swine fever epidemic in China are strongly
increasing the prices of pork: a boon for breeders across the world in
this Chinese year of the pig. (Photo by GREG BAKER/AFP/Getty Images)
この写真は２０１８年８月１０に撮影されたもので、Yiyang conty の農場の豚小屋で豚が横たわっている、中国中央部のHanan Provinceだーー世界食肉市場に前代未聞の状況が訪れている、中国におけるアフリカ豚コレラ伝染病が壊滅的になり、ポーク価格を急上昇させている：世界中の養豚業者にとっては恩恵だ、今年は中国では豚年だ（日本はイノシシ） Chinese pig Ebola is a severe and highly virulent disease nearly
always fatal to hogs but purportedly harmless to humans. The virus moves
effortlessly between pigs and can stay alive for great time and
distances in feed, workers’ clothing, equipment, ticks, and mud. There
is no vaccine nor cure. Previous outbreaks have been extremely
destructive and difficult to control. According to the British
Veterinary Association, CPE “is an acute viral hemorrhagic fever which,
in domestic pigs and wild boar, results in case fatalities approaching
100 per cent.”
This particular outbreak of African swine fever has already proven to be the deadliest in world history. Christine
McCracken, senior animal protein analyst for global lender Rabobank
says, “It’s historic; there’s never been anything like this in the
history of modern animal production. And it’s a frightening situation
only in that there is no current control.”
In fact, the disease has already spread to Mongolia, Vietnam,
Cambodia North Korea, South Korea and parts of Europe. McCracken
estimates that 200 million pigs (roughly half of China’s pig population
and 25% of the global pig population) or more will die this year.
Others (including Hayman) believe that to completely eradicate the
disease, the entire Chinese pig herd may die this year. China’s Ministry
of Agricultural and Rural Affairs reportedly claim a 20% reduction in
the Chinese hog population, but various professional estimates have the
decline closer to 40% with an even larger reduction in the sow
population (down 80-90% in many provinces in China), which is a leading
indicator of the level of Chinese pork output in coming months.
China is both the world’s largest producer and consumer of
pork, at around 50% of the world’s pork supply and 20% of the world’s
animal protein supply. The global cross-border trade in pork (i.e., total global exports) only constitute 15% of Chinese demand. If
the worst-case scenarios come true and nearly the entire Chinese hog
herd is affected, then China will need to import massive amounts of U.S.
pork, regardless of the state of U.S.-China trade talks. 中国は豚肉に関し世界最大の生産国でもあり消費国でもある、世界ポークの５０％を供給し、世界家畜由来タンパク質の２０％を供給している。世界の豚肉輸出量は中国需要の１５％でしかない。もし最悪のシナリオとなると中国の全養豚が感染し、中国は巨額の豚肉を米国から輸入せざるを得なくなるだろう、米中貿易交渉の状況とは無関係にだ。
To make matters worse, the fall armyworm, a caterpillar which damages
crops, including corn, soybeans, rice, and sugarcane, has spread into
China from Myanmar and is now running rampant in 15 southern Chinese
provinces. The USDA attaché in Beijing forecasts that the fall armyworm
will spread to the corn growing regions in the north of China by the
fall of 2019. Previous infestations have resulted in a reduction in corn
yields by at least 20%. Crop losses in Africa have recently exceeded
70% due to the army worm. China as the world’s second largest corn
producer, after the U.S., is facing a second unprecedented threat which
must ultimately lead to higher grain imports.
China is facing an imminent protein and food shortage.
The price of pork and other proteins in China will skyrocket this year.
In fact, China’s national average pig price is already up +15.4% for
the month of June, +30.4% for 2019, and up +53% over the past year.
Looking forward to 2020, acute protein shortages will require China to
significantly increase animal protein imports globally in order to
maintain current consumption patterns. The purchases will be sourced
directly from the U.S., regardless of the presence of tariffs, or from
other animal protein exporting countries, such as Germany, Spain, and
Denmark (as long as CPE hasn’t already killed their herds). Chinese pig Ebola will cause a biblical global shortage of pork for years to come. 中国は差し迫るタンパク質と食料不足に直面している。今年豚肉やそのたタンパク源の価格は急騰している。実際、中国の平均豚肉価格は６月に１５．４％上昇、２０１９年初来で３０．４％上昇、そして昨年来で５３％上昇している。２０２０年を見こすと、タンパク質不足が差し迫り、中国は世界からのタンパク質輸入を急増させるだろう。その輸入元は米国からが第一で、関税など問題にならない、また他国からも多量に輸入するだろう、たとえば、ドイツ、スペイン、そしてデンマークだ（これらの国でアフリカ豚これらがまだ感染していない限りだ）。中国のアフリカ豚コレラは今後何年か、後々語り草になる年代記になるほどの世界的ポーク不足を引き起こすだろう。
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