Here Are The Recession Warning Signs To Watch

Authored by Jesse Colombo via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
Last week, I wrote a detailed piece in which I explained that U.S. recession risk was rising quite rapidly and that the coming recession is likely to be far more severe than most economists expect because there are so many dangerous new bubbles inflating currently and because the global debt burden is much worse today than it was before the Great Recession. In the current piece, I will show more warning signs of the coming recession as well as discuss reliable recession indicators to keep an eye on as we get closer to the recession.

先週のことだ、米国の景気後退リスクが急速に高まっていることを詳細に解説した、そして次の景気後退は多くのエコノミストが予想するよりも遥かに深刻なものになりそうだ、その理由は、現在あまりに多くの新たなバブルが膨れ上がっており、また現在の世界債務負荷はあの金融危機のときよりも遥かに大きなものだからだ。現在確認できる多くの事象を見渡し、これから来る景気後退の警告兆候をここで示そう、さらには景気後退が近づいたときに注意すべき信頼できる指標についても議論しよう。

The first chart is of the New York Fed’s recession probability model, which is warning that there is a 27% probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months. The last time that recession odds were the same as they are now was in early-2007, which was shortly before the Great Recession officially started in December 2007. This recession indicator has underestimated the probability of recessions in the past several decades (it never rose higher that 42% in 2008, when we were already in a recession), so the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months is likely even higher than 27%.

まず最初はNew York FEDの景気後退確率モデルだ、ここでは今後１２か月で米国景気後退入りの確率は２７％と警告している。この景気後退入り確率が現在と同様だったのは２００７年始めのことだ、あの金融危機が公式に認定される２００７年１２月の少し前のことだ。過去何十年かを振り返るとこの景気後退入り確率は過小評価している（２００８年でも４２％を超えることはなかった、すでに景気後退入りしているにもかかわらずだ）、というわけで今後１２か月以内に米国が景気後退入りする確率は２７％よりももっと高い。

The New York Fed’s recession probability model is based on the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yield spread, which is the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates. In normal economic environments, the 10-year Treasury yield is higher than the 3-month Treasury yield. Right before a recession, however, this spread inverts as the 3-month Treasury yield actually becomes higher than the 10-year Treasury rate – this is known as an inverted yield curve. As the chart below shows, inverted yield curves have preceded all modern recessions. The 10-year and 3-month Treasury spread inverted in May, which started the recession countdown clock.

New York FEDの景気後退確率モデルは１０Y3Mイールドカーブスプレッドに基づいている。通常の経済環境ならば、１０年債の金利は３ヶ月もの金利よりも高い。しかしながら景気後退直前になると、このスプレッドが反転し３ヶ月物の金利のほうが１０年物よりも高くなるーーこれはイールドカーブ反転として知られる。下のチャートでも分かるが近年のすべての景気後退前にイールドカーブが反転している。この５月に１０Y3Mイールドカーブが反転した、ということは景気後退へのカウントダウンが始まったということだ。

The Leading Economic Index (LEI), which is comprised of economic indicators that lead the overall economy, has been slowing down quite rapidly in recent months. When the year-over-year growth rate of this index drops into negative territory, recessions typically occur shortly after. While the current LEI slowdown hasn’t dipped into negative territory yet, anyone who is interested in monitoring the risk of a recession should keep an eye out for that scenario.

Leading Economic Index(LEI 経済先行指標）、景気全体を先行する各種経済指標から産出される指標、これがここ数か月急激に下落している。この指標がYoYでマイナス領域になると、すぐその後に景気後退を引き起こす。現在のLEIはまだマイナス領域までなっていないが、景気後退リスクに興味のある人はこの指数に注目すべきだ。

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), which is comprised of 85 indicators of national economic activity, has been contracting in recent months. Sharp contractions of the CFNAI’s 3-month moving average typically signal imminent recessions. The CFNAI’s contraction isn’t quite at recessionary levels just yet, but if it drops it -0.5 or even lower, that will provide further confirmation that a recession is imminent.

Chicago FED National Activity Index(CFNAI)、この指数は米国経済活動を示す８５の指数から算出される、これもここ数か月収斂している。このCFNAIの３か月移動平均が急落すると景気後退が迫っている。今の所CFNAI下落を見る限りまだ景気後退が差し迫ってはいない、しかしこれが−０．５下落すると、景気後退が差し迫ることになる。

In May, the U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to its lowest level since September 2009:

５月には、米国製造業PMIが２００９年以来の最低値になった：

South Korean exports, which are seen as a barometer for the health of the global economy, have been falling in recent months:

韓国の輸出、これは世界経済の健全性を示すバロメータとみなされている、これがここ数か月下落している：

It’s not surprising that South Korea’s exports are falling as global trade plummets:

世界貿易量が下落する中で韓国輸出が下落するからと言って驚くことではない：
Major appliance shipments collapsed 17% in April, which is a recession warning sign:

主要な機器出荷が４月に１７％下落した、これは景気後退への警告サインだ：

One popular indicator that is used to monitor recession risk, the University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index, shows no sign of an imminent recession – quite the opposite, actually. Just beware when it starts to drop very sharply like it did before the last several recessions.

景気後退を把握するのによく知られた指数がある、ミシガン大学消費者信頼指数だ、これを見る限りは景気後退が差し迫ってはいないーーそれとは全く逆だ。ただしこの指標の下落は突然起きるもので、過去数回の景気後退を見れば明らかだ。

U.S. building permits and housing starts are popular economic indicators that are used to monitor recession risk. Right now, they are not warning of an imminent recession, thankfully. But if building permits and housing starts weaken significantly in the near future, it will provide further confirmation that a recession is near.

米国の建築認許数と住宅着工数、はよく知られた経済指標であり、景気後退リスクの判断に利用される。今の所、どちらも景気後退が差し迫る兆候はない。しかし建築認許と住宅着工が将来急激に弱まると、景気後退が近いことの確認となるだろう。

One of the most basic recession indicators is the stock market itself. When the stock market experiences a bear market (a decline of 20% or more), that is typically a sign that the economy is rolling over into a recession. For now, the stock market is not warning of a recession, but beware that it can unravel very quickly due to how inflated it currently is.

もっとも基本的な景気後退指標の一つは株式市場そのものだ。株式市場がベア相場入りすると（２０％超の下落）、これは経済が転落し景気後退入りを示す。今の所、株式市場に景気後退警告は見られない、しかし現在の株価は比較できないほどに膨れ上がっているのは事実だ。

Corporate earnings growth is another valuable recession indicator to watch. Corporate earnings growth drops significantly and turns negative when the economy rolls over into a recession. After growing at a nearly 20% annualized rate in 2017 and 2018, Q1 2019 earnings growth hit a wall, growing only 1.5%. If corporate earnings start to contract in the next few quarters, that would confirm that a recession is near.

企業収益ももう一つの重要な観察すべき指標だ。景気が悪化し景気後退入りすると企業集計成長は大きく下落しマイナスになる。２０１７，２０１８と年率２０％の成長を遂げたが、これが壁に突き当たっている、わずか１．５％の成長でしかない。今後数四半期で企業収益が後退し始めると、景気後退が近いことの確認となる。

As I have explained in the past, sub-4% unemployment is a sign that the economic cycle is quite mature and that a recession is not far off. The U.S. unemployment rate has been under 4% since early-2018. When the unemployment rate abruptly increases from such low levels, that is a tell-tale sign that a recession has started.

以前に私が解説したが、失業率が４％を下回ると、これは景気サイクルがもう満を持しており景気後退が遠くないことを示している。米国の失業率は２０１８年始め以来４％以下だ。この低レベルから失業率が急に増えると、すでに景気後退が始まったサインだ。

Though technically not a recession indicator, it is worth paying attention to the high-yield bond spread as a measure of how much stress there is in the credit market. The spread tends to increase leading up to and during recessions as investors jettison riskier high-yield bonds in favor of less risky Treasury bonds. Credit market stress is still low at the moment, but can change on a dime.

テクニカル的には景気後退指標ではないが、高イールド債権スプレッドも注目すべきだ、与信市場にどれほどのストレスがあるかを見ることができる。このスプレッドは景気後退前と景気後退最中に増える傾向にある、というのも投資家はよりリスクの少ない国債を好みリスクの大きな高金利商品を回避するからだ。与信市場のストレスは今のところ低い、しかしこれはすぐに変わるものだ。

In the past year or so, Goldman Sachs’ Bear Market Risk Indicator has been has been at its highest level since the early-1970s:

昨年すでに、ゴールドマン・サックスのベア相場リスク指数は１９７０年以降で最大のレベルになっている：

The high probability of a recession and bear market in the next year or so is very concerning because of how inflated the U.S. stock market currently is. The Fed’s aggressive inflation of the U.S. stock market in the past decade caused stocks to rise at a faster rate than their underlying earnings, which means that the market is extremely overvalued right now. Whenever the market becomes extremely overvalued, it’s just a matter of time before the market falls to a more reasonable valuation again. As the chart below shows, the U.S. stock market is nearly as overvalued as it was in 1929, right before the stock market crash that led to the Great Depression.

来年にも景気後退とか株式がベア相場入りする可能性が高くなり、とても懸念される、というのも米国株式市場は現在かつて無いほどに膨れ上がっている。FEDがこの１０年積極的に米国株式を膨れ上がれせたために、株価の背景にある収益成長を遥かに超えて株価が上昇している、ということは市場は極端な過大評価状態だということだ。市場が極端に過剰評価となったときには必ず、市場が下落し合理的なバリエーションを回復する、これは時間の問題だ。下のチャートが示すが、米国株式市場は１９２９年当時と同じくらいに過剰評価されている、株価暴落で大恐慌を引き起こす直前のレベルだ。

Another indicator that supports the “higher volatility ahead” thesis is the 10-year/2-year Treasury spread. When this spread is inverted, it leads the Volatility Index by approximately three years. If this historic relationship is still valid, we should prepare for much higher volatility over the next few years. A volatility surge of the magnitude suggested by the 10-year/2-year Treasury spread would likely be the result of a recession and a bursting of the massive asset bubble created by the Fed in the past decade.

もう一つの指標は「今後の高ボラティリティ」だ、これは１０Y2Yスプレッドで示される。このスプレッドが反転がVIXに三年ほど先行している。この過去の時間相関が有効ならば、今後数年のより大きなボラティリティを覚悟せねばならない。１０Y2Y国債スプレッドからボラティリティ急騰が示唆されるということは景気後退と巨大な資産バブル崩壊が待ち受けている、この１０念FEDが生み出してきたものだ。

While several reliable indicators are giving recession warnings and are worth paying attention to, the U.S. economy is still in the early stages of slowing down and rolling over into a recession. Even if the recession begins in a year or two, that is still too close for comfort considering the tremendous risks that have built up globally during the past decade of extremely stimulative monetary policies. As I have explained in last week’s piece, bubbles are forming in global debt, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, emerging markets, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, European real estate, the art market, U.S. stocks, U.S. household wealth, corporate debt, leveraged loans, U.S. student loans, U.S. auto loans, tech startups, shale energy, global skyscraper construction, U.S. commercial real estate, the U.S. restaurant industry, U.S. healthcare, and U.S. housing once again. I believe that the coming recession is going burst those bubbles, which may cause a crisis that is even worse than the 2008 Global Financial Crisis was.

景気後退警告示唆する信頼できるいくつかの指標がありこれに注目すべきだが、米国経済はまだ初期の減速と景気後退の入り口にいるに過ぎない。たとえ景気後退が今後１，２年で起きるとしても、過去十年に世界中で極端な金融刺激政策が取られたリスクが積み上がっている。その一部を私は先週解説しが、バブルは世界中に積み上がっている、世界的な債務、中国、香港、シンガポール、新興市場、カナダ、オーストラリア、ニュージーランド、欧州不動産、絵画市場、米国株式、米国家計資産、企業債務、レバレッジドローン、米国学生ローン、米国自動車ローン、テック創業企業、シェールエネルギー、世界的摩天楼建設、米国商業不動産、米国飲食業産業、米国ヘルスケア、そして米国住宅、どれもだ。これから来る景気後退はこれらのバブルをすべて吹き飛ばす、と私は信じている、これは２００８年の金融危機よりももっとひどいものになるかもしれない。