While
the western world (and much of the eastern) has been preoccupied with
predicting the consequences of Trump's accelerating global trade/tech
war, Beijing has had its hands full with avoiding a bank run in the
aftermath of Baoshang Bank's failure, scrambling to inject massive
amounts of liquidity last week in the form of a 250 billion yuan net
open market operation to thaw the interbank market which was on the
verge of freezing, and sent overnight funding rates spiking and bond
yields and NCD rates higher.
Unfortunately for the PBOC, Beijing is now racing against time to
prevent a widespread panic after it opened the Pandora's box when it
seized Baoshang Bank two weeks ago, the first official bank failure in a
odd replay of what happened with Bear Stearns back in 2008, when
JPMorgan was gifted the historic bank for pennies on the dollar.
PBOCにとって残念なことに、北京政府は今や、2周間前のBaoshang Bank 吸収でパンドラの箱を開いた後の混乱拡大を収束させることで手一杯だ、公式に銀行倒産を認めたことが2008年のベア・スターンズを思い起こさせる、当時JPMorgaは棚ぼたでこの伝統ある銀行を手中に納めた。
And with domino #1 down, the question turns to who is next, and will they be China's Lehman.
ドミノ#1に伴い、問題は次に起こることだ、それは中国のレーマン銀行となるだろう。
This was the question we asked last Thursday,
when we published a list of regional banks that have delayed publishing
2018 reports, the biggest red flag suggesting an upcoming bank solvency
"event."
One day later we may have gotten our answer, when the Bank of
Jinzhou, a city commercial bank in Liaoning Province, the second name
in the list above, and with some $105 billion in assets, notably bigger
than Baoshang, announced that its auditors Ernst & Young Hua Ming
LLP and Ernst & Young had resigned, not long after the bank
announced it would delay the publication of its annual reports.
その翌日に我々は答えを得たかもしれない、それはBank of Jinzhou 錦州銀行、遼寧省の商業銀行だ、この表では二番目に書かれている、資産規模は$105B、Baoshangよりもずっと大きい、この銀行の広報によると、監査法人Ernst & Young Hua Ming LLP and Ernst & Young が辞退した、当行が年次報告開示遅延を広報してからそう遅くない時期にだ。
For those confused, the delay of an annual report and the resignation of an auditor, means a bank failure is not only virtually certain but practically imminent.
As the bank - which first got in hot water in 2015 over its exposure to the scandal-ridden Hanergy Group -
writes in a filing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, E&Y was first
appointed as the auditors of the Bank at the last annual general meeting
of the Bank held on 29 May 2018 to hold office until the conclusion of
the next annual general meeting of the Bank. That never happened,
because on 31 May 2019, out of the blue, the board and its audit
committee received a letter from EY tendering their resignations as the
auditors of the Bank with immediate effect.
The reason for the resignation: the bank refused to provide E&Y
with documents to confirm the bank's clients were able to service loans,
amid indications that the use of proceeds of certain loans granted by
the Bank to its institutional customers were not consistent with the
purpose stated in their loan documents.
As a result, "after numerous discussions and as at the date of this announcement, no
consensus was reached between the Bank and EY on the Outstanding
Matters and the proposed timetable for the completion of audit." As a result, after a clear breakdown in relations with its own auditor, the
Board decided to appoint Crowe (HK) CPA Limited as the new auditors of
the Bank to fill the casual vacancy following the Resignation and to
hold the office until the conclusion of the 2018 annual general meeting
of the Bank (we are taking the under with lots of leverage as Crowe will
likewise quit in the coming weeks if not days).
And confirming that not even the bank's management believes this
"justification" will be enough to avoid a rout in the stock, the bank
reported that it has requested the trading in the H shares (which was
frozen on April 1) on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited to be
suspended until the publication of the 2018 Annual Results. For anyone
who hopes that these shares will ever be unfrozen for trading, there are
a few bridges in Brooklyn that are for sale.
The real question facing Beijing now is how quickly will Bank of
Jinzhou collapse, how will Beijing and the PBOC react, and what whether
the other banks on the list above now suffer a raging bank run, on which
will certainly not be confined just to China's small and medium banks.
当行取締役はこの出来事を「正当化」することで株価下落を回避するのに十分と考えている一方、香港証券取引所での売買は2018年次決算開示までサスペンドとされている(すでに4月1日から売買凍結となっている)。ただし株式売買再開は望み薄だ。現在北京政府が直面している疑念は、 Bank of Jinzhou 倒産までにどれだけの時間があるか、またその時如何に北京政府とPBOCが対応するかだ、そしてこの表の他の銀行も倒産となる銀行等産の嵐がおきるかどうか、どうなるかだ、さらにはそれが中小銀行にとどまるかも懸念される。
最後の2段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton February 7, 2020 2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting. While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact. Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September. And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher. When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners. As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity. For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult. ...
Global Warming Fraud Exposed In Pictures by Tyler Durden Tue, 10/01/2019 - 12:25 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Climate change alarmists have convinced the public something must be done now. The reports are easily debunked as fraud ... 気候変動主張者たちは今行動を実行せねばと確信している。その手の報告書はでたらめだということが簡単に解る・・・・ My Gift To Climate Alarmists 気候変動活動家への贈り物 Tony Heller does an amazing job of showing how the fraud takes place in his video entitled My Gift To Climate Alarmists. Tony Heller は素晴らしい仕事をした、このビデオを見ると彼らの主張が如何にでたらめかということがよく分かる、そのタイトルは My Gift To Climate Alarmists。 The video is only 12.51 minutes long. このビデオはわずか12.51分しかない。(訳注:画像・動画がいっぱいで英語がわからなくても理解できる) Cherry Picking 例を上げると Heatwaves increasing since 1960 熱波発生は1960年以降増えているという Arctic ice declining since 1979 北極海氷は1979年以来減っているという Wildfires increa...
「この記事が面白いと思うなら、 Amaz onで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう 」 September Class 8 Heavy Duty Truck Orders Collapse 71% by Tyler Durden Fri, 10/04/2019 - 13:10 Preliminary Class 8 order data for September is starting to trickle in and, like the data preceding it so far this year - it's ugly. クラス8トラック発注がことしのこれまでと同様にひどい。 Class 8 orders were crushed 71% in September, reaching 12,600 units, according to Baird and Morgan Stanley. 9月にクラス8トラック発注が71%下落し、12,600台となった、Baird and Morgan Stanleyのデータだ。 This follows a 79% plunge in August. 8月の79%下落に次ぐ悪さだ。 This makes September the 11th consecutive month of YOY order declines and the 9th consecutive month of orders below 20,000. この9月で11か月連続でYoY発注が下落している、また9か月連続で20,000台を下回った。 Class 8 orde...
想像していたことが起きはじめました。次はヨトウムシ被害が顕在化するのではないかと想像していますが、どうでしょうね。6月以来ヨトウムシ被害について北京政府の発表を目にしていません、そろそろ収穫期になります。 「この記事が面白いと思うなら、 Amaz onで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう 」 Chinese Imports Of US Pork Soar To The Highest Ever As Beijing Faces Food Crisis by Tyler Durden Thu, 10/10/2019 - 11:25 In a time when China is losing between a third and half of its pig herds as a result of the unprecedented decimation unleashed by African swine fever - less affectionately known as pig ebola - which has sent wholesale pork prices in China soaring to all time highs... アフリカ豚コレラの前代未聞の殺処分で中国の豚の1/3から1/2を失いーー豚エボラとも呼ばれるがーー中国豚肉卸価格が過去最高に急騰している・・・ ... and prompted local farmers to breed pigs the size of polar bears ... ・・こういう状況で当地の農家はホッキョクグマ級の豚を飼わざるを得ないという・・・ ... China is increasingly finding itself at America's mercy. ・・・中国は米国の慈悲に頼らざるを得ないという状況におちいりつつある。 As Bloomber...
The Message From The Jobs Report – The Economy Is Slowing Written by Lance Roberts | Apr, 8, 2019 Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the March monthly “employment report” which showed an increase in employment of 196,000 jobs. As Mike Shedlock noted on Friday: 先週、BLSが3月の月例「雇用統計」を発表した、雇用が196,000増えたという。Mike Shedlockは金曜にこう書いた: “The change in total non-farm payroll employment for January was revised up from +311,000 to +312,000, and the change for February was revised up from +20,000 to +33,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 14,000 more than previously reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 180,000 per month over the last 3 months. 「1月全非農業雇用は+311,000から+312,000に改定された、2月のデータは+20,000から+33,000に改定された。これらの改定で1月と2月を合算した雇用増は以前の報告よりも14,000多くなった。改定後でみると、雇用増は直近三ヶ月で平均180,000/月となる。 BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance BLS 雇用統計概観 Nonfarm Payroll : +196,000 – Establishment Survey Emp...