While
the western world (and much of the eastern) has been preoccupied with
predicting the consequences of Trump's accelerating global trade/tech
war, Beijing has had its hands full with avoiding a bank run in the
aftermath of Baoshang Bank's failure, scrambling to inject massive
amounts of liquidity last week in the form of a 250 billion yuan net
open market operation to thaw the interbank market which was on the
verge of freezing, and sent overnight funding rates spiking and bond
yields and NCD rates higher.
Unfortunately for the PBOC, Beijing is now racing against time to
prevent a widespread panic after it opened the Pandora's box when it
seized Baoshang Bank two weeks ago, the first official bank failure in a
odd replay of what happened with Bear Stearns back in 2008, when
JPMorgan was gifted the historic bank for pennies on the dollar.
PBOCにとって残念なことに、北京政府は今や、2周間前のBaoshang Bank 吸収でパンドラの箱を開いた後の混乱拡大を収束させることで手一杯だ、公式に銀行倒産を認めたことが2008年のベア・スターンズを思い起こさせる、当時JPMorgaは棚ぼたでこの伝統ある銀行を手中に納めた。
And with domino #1 down, the question turns to who is next, and will they be China's Lehman.
ドミノ#1に伴い、問題は次に起こることだ、それは中国のレーマン銀行となるだろう。
This was the question we asked last Thursday,
when we published a list of regional banks that have delayed publishing
2018 reports, the biggest red flag suggesting an upcoming bank solvency
"event."
One day later we may have gotten our answer, when the Bank of
Jinzhou, a city commercial bank in Liaoning Province, the second name
in the list above, and with some $105 billion in assets, notably bigger
than Baoshang, announced that its auditors Ernst & Young Hua Ming
LLP and Ernst & Young had resigned, not long after the bank
announced it would delay the publication of its annual reports.
その翌日に我々は答えを得たかもしれない、それはBank of Jinzhou 錦州銀行、遼寧省の商業銀行だ、この表では二番目に書かれている、資産規模は$105B、Baoshangよりもずっと大きい、この銀行の広報によると、監査法人Ernst & Young Hua Ming LLP and Ernst & Young が辞退した、当行が年次報告開示遅延を広報してからそう遅くない時期にだ。
For those confused, the delay of an annual report and the resignation of an auditor, means a bank failure is not only virtually certain but practically imminent.
As the bank - which first got in hot water in 2015 over its exposure to the scandal-ridden Hanergy Group -
writes in a filing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, E&Y was first
appointed as the auditors of the Bank at the last annual general meeting
of the Bank held on 29 May 2018 to hold office until the conclusion of
the next annual general meeting of the Bank. That never happened,
because on 31 May 2019, out of the blue, the board and its audit
committee received a letter from EY tendering their resignations as the
auditors of the Bank with immediate effect.
The reason for the resignation: the bank refused to provide E&Y
with documents to confirm the bank's clients were able to service loans,
amid indications that the use of proceeds of certain loans granted by
the Bank to its institutional customers were not consistent with the
purpose stated in their loan documents.
As a result, "after numerous discussions and as at the date of this announcement, no
consensus was reached between the Bank and EY on the Outstanding
Matters and the proposed timetable for the completion of audit." As a result, after a clear breakdown in relations with its own auditor, the
Board decided to appoint Crowe (HK) CPA Limited as the new auditors of
the Bank to fill the casual vacancy following the Resignation and to
hold the office until the conclusion of the 2018 annual general meeting
of the Bank (we are taking the under with lots of leverage as Crowe will
likewise quit in the coming weeks if not days).
And confirming that not even the bank's management believes this
"justification" will be enough to avoid a rout in the stock, the bank
reported that it has requested the trading in the H shares (which was
frozen on April 1) on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited to be
suspended until the publication of the 2018 Annual Results. For anyone
who hopes that these shares will ever be unfrozen for trading, there are
a few bridges in Brooklyn that are for sale.
The real question facing Beijing now is how quickly will Bank of
Jinzhou collapse, how will Beijing and the PBOC react, and what whether
the other banks on the list above now suffer a raging bank run, on which
will certainly not be confined just to China's small and medium banks.
当行取締役はこの出来事を「正当化」することで株価下落を回避するのに十分と考えている一方、香港証券取引所での売買は2018年次決算開示までサスペンドとされている(すでに4月1日から売買凍結となっている)。ただし株式売買再開は望み薄だ。現在北京政府が直面している疑念は、 Bank of Jinzhou 倒産までにどれだけの時間があるか、またその時如何に北京政府とPBOCが対応するかだ、そしてこの表の他の銀行も倒産となる銀行等産の嵐がおきるかどうか、どうなるかだ、さらにはそれが中小銀行にとどまるかも懸念される。
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを7時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、2018年の最後の3ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
コメント欄に詳しい解説が書き込まれています。 英語でいうところの「buy back」と「insider buy」は異なる概念です。日本語の記事でどちらも自社株買いとされていることがあり、これを混同すると意味不明の記事になってしまいます。 The Great Stock Buyback Debate Written by Lance Roberts | May, 2, 2019 I recently wrote about stock buybacks in our weekly newsletter. However, a recent report from Axios noted that for 2019, IT companies are again on pace to spend the most on stock buybacks this year, as the total looks set to pass 2018’s $1.085 trillion record total. 最近私は週間記事で自社株買いに関して議論した。しかしながら、Axiosの最近の2019報告書によると、IT企業は再び今年その規模を増やしている、2018年は$1.085Tと記録的規模だったが、今年はこれを超えそうだ。 “By the numbers: Companies so far have spent $272 billion on buybacks, data compiled by Mike Schoonover, COO of Catalyst Funds, for Axios shows. 「数値を見る限り:企業は$272Bをすでに自社株買いに費やした、数値の解釈はMike Schoonoverによるものだ、彼はCatalyst FundsのCOOだ、Axiosがデータを示す。 Between the lines: The amount of spending on buybacks announced by companies in the IT sector has fallen significantly this year as other i...
このブログ左の参考図書の一つがHoward Marksの本です。初めてこの本を読んだ時、管理人は目からウロコが取れた思いでした。 Howard Marks: "We Had One Of The Most Violent Downdrafts I Had Ever Seen" by Tyler Durden Mon, 01/14/2019 - 09:28 Right around the market peaked on September 2018, Oaktree's iconic founder Howard Marks published a letter to investors in which he warned that the market conditions made it "a time for caution", to wit: 市場がピークを迎えた2018年9月ころ、Oaktreeの伝説的創業者 Howard Marksが投資家向けレターを発行した、この中で市場環境は「注意すべき時だ」と警告した、見てみよう: I’m absolutely not saying people shouldn’t invest today, or shouldn’t invest in debt. Oaktree’s mantra recently has been, and continues to be, “move forward, but with caution.” The outlook is not so bad, and asset prices are not so high, that one should be in cash or near-cash. The penalty in terms of likely opportunity cost is just too great to ...
コメント欄に詳しい解説が書き込まれています。ぜひ、一読を。 When The S&P Hit A Record High, The Only Buyer Was Buybacks; Everyone Else Was Selling by Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2019 - 14:26 Bloomberg's Michael Regan has taken a lot of heat for his Friday article " The U.S. Stock Market Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop Its Endless Rally " , which prompted some to ask if Bloomberg, with its "millennialized", click-optimized newsroom, has become the new Barron's. ブルームバーグのMichael Regan が金曜の記事で熱く語った「米国株式市場は止まることはない、止まること無きエンドレスラリーだ」、この記事を見てブルームバーグが変貌したのではないかと思う人もいた、「千年王国的か」、アクセス獲得の見せかけHPに変わったか、新手のバロン誌に変貌したか、という具合だ。 And yet, Regan's less than prescient headline notwithstanding, he made an accurate point in his teaser, namely that " regular investors are leaving. " That, as we have pounded the table week after week after week, has been ...