Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, In the past year, the BLS says the number of jobs rose by 2.62 million. Employment rose by 1.429 million. 昨年、BLS労働統計局によるとjobs 雇用 が2.62M増えた。Employment 就労の増加は1.429Mだった。
The discrepancy between the increase in jobs and the increase in employment is 1,191,000. On average, over the past year, that's a discrepancy of 99,250 every month, in favor of jobs. jobs増加とemployment増加の間の乖離は1,191,000だ。昨年の場合、平均して毎月99.250の乖離がある、jobsのほうが改善が良好だ。
Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey
Household Survey 家計調査 vs. Payroll Survey 機関調査
The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the
headline jobs number, generally released the first Friday of every
month. It is based on employer reporting.
Payroll survey(機関調査とも言われる)は毎月第一金曜に jobs number として開示される。この数字は雇用主の従業員名簿調査報告に基づいている。
The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures unemployment and many other factors.
家計調査はBLSが電話で行う。この電話調査では失業やその他多くの調査を行う。
Numbers in Perspective
数字をどうみるか
In the household survey, if you work as little as 1 hour a week, even selling trinkets on eBay, you are considered employed.
If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not
considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.
Searching want-ads or looking online for jobs does not count. You need
to submit a resume or talk to a prospective employer or agency.
In the payroll survey, three part-time jobs count as three jobs. The
BLS attempts to factor this in, but they do not weed out duplicate
Social Security numbers. The potential for double-counting jobs in the
payroll survey is large.
These distortions and discrepancies artificially lower the
unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and
artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month.
Over time, the numbers move in sync. There is no clear pattern around
recessions. In many years the levels converge before a recession, but
ahead of the great recession the numbers diverged.
長期に渡ってみると、これら2つの数字の変動は同期している。景気後退期近傍で明らかなパターンがあるわけではない。景気後退前には何年かかけてこの数字が収束する傾向にある、しかしながらあの the great recession に向けては2つの数字が乖離に向かっていた。
Nonfarm Payrolls vs Employment Detail
非農業雇用統計 vs 就労数の詳細
In December of 2009 the difference between payrolls and employment was 8.21 million. This month, the difference is 5.56 million. 2009年12月時点で、雇用統計と就労数の乖離は8.21Mだった。今月時点でこの乖離は5.56Mだ。
Since the lows in December of 2009, the BLS tells us employment rose
by 18,632,000. The number of jobs rose by 21,291,000. That's a
difference of 2,659,000.
In the past year alone, the difference between jobs and employment is
a whopping 1,191,000. That's a discrepancy of 99,250 every month, in
favor of jobs.
I strongly suggest double-counting of jobs by the BLS when people take extra part-time jobs or shift jobs. 私は強くこう示唆する、人々がパートタイムの仕事を追加したり転職したとき、BLS調査のjobsが二重計上されている。 For a closer look at today's jobs report please see Jobs +263,000 vs. Employment -103,000: Unemployment Rate 3.6% Lowest Since 1969. 今日、第一金曜の雇用統計をよく理解するために、これを確認するが良い、Jobs +263,000 vs 就労数 -103,000: 失業率3.6% 1969年以来の最低値。
C&I Loans Enter The Danger Zone by Tyler Durden Thu, 03/14/2019 - 15:55 Authored by Jesse Colombo via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Commercial and industrial (C&I) loan activity is watched closely by economists to gauge the strength of the economy and estimate where we are in the business cycle. C&I loans are used to finance capital expenditures or increase the borrower’s working capital. The C&I loan cycle often takes up to a couple of years to turn positive after a recession, but provides even more confirmation that an economic expansion is underway. For example, the U.S. Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, but the C&I loan cycle didn’t turn positive until late-2010. C&I loans also help to wa...
Mish: Gold Hits New Record High And There's More To Come by Tyler Durden Mon, 07/27/2020 - 10:10 Twitter Facebook Reddit Email Print Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Gold futures just touched $1928 taking out the Intraday high of $1923.70 in 2011. ゴールド先物が$1928になり、2011年の日中高値$1923.70を超えた。 11-Week Run 11週連続上昇 Gold is on a huge 11-week run. The last time gold did that was at the 2011 high. ゴールドはなんと11週連続で上昇だ。前回の新高値は2011年のことだった。 Is a pullback in order? A Gold COT chart says otherwise. 通常の引き戻しが待ち構えているだろうか? ゴールドのCoTチャートを見るとそうでもなさそうだ。 Gold COT Chart ゴールドCoTチャート Understanding Futures 先物市場を読み解く In the futures world there is a short for every long. 先物市場ではどのロングにもショートが対応している。 The first horizontal box has Large Specs, Small Specs, and Commercials. This is It's Old COT reporting. この図の下部、最初の横長い箱に示すのは Large Specs、Small Specs、そしてCommercialsのポジションだ。このチャートは従来からのCoT...