Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,
According to Peter Schiff, the chief global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital, it was a “huge mistake” for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates last month.
Peter Schiffに言わせると、彼はEuro Pacific Capitalの主任グローバルストラテジストだが、先月のFEDによる金利引下げは「大きな間違い」だった。
Schiff says there is no way for the Federal Reserve to stops the United States from going into a recession.
Schiffによれば、もはやFEDは米国景気後退を止めれない。
“They never should have taken rates to zero in 2008 and held them there for 7 years,”the veteran economic analyst told RT. “Zero
interest rates and quantitative easing have created problems in our
economy that will take generations to fix. However, the healing will
never get underway if the Fed goes right back to zero (which is where they are headed).”
According to Schiff, it’s impossible to build a viable economy on the
back of artificially low interest rates. “All it accomplishes it to
push up asset prices, creating bubbles and malinvestments that hurt the
economy. Relying on low interest rates for growth makes it certain that recessions will ensue when monetary policy tightens,” he added.
“the Fed is not causing the recession; they are just unable to delay it any longer.”
「FEDが景気後退のげんいんではない；彼らがもう先延ばしを出来ないということだ。」
Unfortunately, if interest rates are “allowed” to rise organically to
levels that reflect a healthy economy, the interest payments on
government debt will sink the government and that’s exactly why
President Donald Trump is desperate for artificially low interest rates.
Schiff has commented on a coming recession often, saying if it hits
before the 2020 election, Trump will have no chance of winning. Schiff
also said that “We’re Not Borrowing Ourselves Rich, We’re Borrowing Ourselves BROKE!” Meaning he sees a problem in the debt accumulation among the average American household. It
now takes a lot of debt to stay in the middle class, and the political
class isn’t setting a good example by being good with the money they
steal from everyone else. Schiffは何度もこれからの景気後退に言及する、２０２０年の選挙前に景気後退入りすると、トランプに勝ち目はないだろう。Schillはまたこういう、「我々は借金で豊かになるわけではない、借金で破綻しようとしている！」彼は平均的米国家計債務の問題を指摘している。いまや中産階級が多額の債務を抱えており、他人から奪った金で良い暮らしをするというのは、政治階級としてまともじゃない。
Schiff puts the GDP numbers into perspective, and considering the
debt load the U.S. economy is burdened with, the outlook isn’t all that
rosy. And of course, it’s not just government debt. Household debt is also at record levels and as Schiff says, “We’re not richer because of this economic growth.” SchiffはGDPの見通しにも言及する、債務負荷を考えると米国経済の返済日無で経済見通しはバラ色ではない。そして当然、それは政府債務だけではない。家計債務も記録的レベルに達して入る、とSchiffは言う、「この経済成長でも我々は豊かになっていない」。
“So, we had to add a lot more debt in 2018 to buy not as much growth
as a much smaller amount of debt in 2005. So, the takeaway from that is
this is unsustainable because the growth came at a heavy cost. We had to
increase the amount of debt that we had by a lot more than the
percentage that the economy grew.”
“If your debt is growing faster than your economy, then you’re not
getting richer. You’re getting poorer. You would have been better off
without the debt and without the growth … We’re borrowing ourselves into poverty. We’re not borrowing ourselves rich. We’re borrowing ourselves broke.“-Peter Schiff, via Seeking Alpha
「自らの収入よりも債務増加が多いなら、豊かになれるわけがない。貧しくなるだけだ。成長がなくとも借金がなければミンさんはもっと良い暮らしができるはずだ・・・我々は借金することで貧困化している。借金で豊かになっているわけではない。借金で破滅に向かっている。」Peter Schiff, via Seeking Alpha
文章全体がZeroHedge特有の皮肉で満ちています。 Global Earnings Downgrades At Highest Level In 10 Years by Tyler Durden Thu, 01/10/2019 - 16:45 As stock markets plunged in December, asset-gatherers and commission-takers (and politicians) rushed on to every media outlet to reassure everyone that the fundamentals are "solid", "extremely strong", "very positive" ... pick your spin. The only problem is that top-down, the fundamentals are dismally disappointing... １２月の株式急落で、株式を買い集めている人、手数料狙いの人（そして政治家）はメディアに出ずっぱりで誰もにこう訴えた、ファンダメンタルズは「健全」、「とても強い」、「とてもポジティブ」・・・みなさんもこれに振り回された。唯一の問題はこれらは上意下達であることだ、実際のファンダメンタルズは悲しいかな失望するものだ・・・・ And bottom-up, the fundamentals are almost as bad as they have ever been as analysts take the ax to their outlooks... the number of analysts’ global earnings downgrades exceeded upgrades by the most since 2...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
