China's manufacturing PMI slumped deeper into contraction
on Thursday -- as economic growth in the country fell to its weakest
pace in three decades. The economic slowdown, coupled with massive
corporate leverage, has created a ticking debt time bomb, which could
explode in the next global recession.
The unraveling and coming debt crisis in China
will take a series of corporate debt defaults to spook investors, and
perhaps, the first series of defaults has already started.
The latest causality is Shandong-based steelmaker Xiwang Group Co.,
who defaulted on a $142 million bond last week, has sparked contagion
fear with other companies in the same region, reported Bloomberg.
直近の犠牲者は山東省鉄鋼メーカー Xiwang Group Co.だ、先週$142Mの不当たりを出した、これが当地の他企業にも連鎖するのでは、とブルームバーグは伝える。
Then on Wednesday, Shandong Sanxing Group Co.'s 2021 dollar bond and
China Hongqiao Group Ltd.'s dollar bond due 2023 plummeted to their
lowest levels ever as contagion from Xiwang's default continued to
frighten investors.
水曜に、山東省Sanxing Group Co.の2021年満期ドル建て債権と中国Hongqiao Groupのドル建て2023年満期債権が過去最低レベルの値を付けた、Xiwangの倒産が投資家を驚かせたためだ。
"Xiwang's default onshore has raised concerns that other privately
owned enterprises in Shandong, particularly those from the same
locality, may have been associated with the firm," said Wu Qiong,
executive director at BOC International Holdings Ltd. in Hong Kong, who
spoke with Bloomberg.
Fitch Ratings said the default rate of all Chinese issuers in the
first three quarters of this year was 1.03%. By historical standards,
the default rate is much higher than last year. Most of the firms
skipping out on bond payments were private entities.
The cash crunch comes at a time when overleveraged companies in China
are reeling from a global synchronized slowdown and a controlled
deleveraging period by the government to create a soft bottom in the
economy.
中国の過剰債務企業は世界同時減速と政府の債務削減政策でよろめき現金不足となっている。
"Defaults are likely to continue rising, as many medium- and
small-sized private firms are facing significant refinancing pressures,"
Zhang Shuncheng, associate director of corporate research at Fitch,
said in an interview. "Private companies suffer from many problems in
their own operations, not to mention the impact from the slowing economy
and tight credit environment."
China's corporate sector downfall is overleverage, taken on during
the global synchronized recovery. Now, a synchronized decline, these
firms are starting to deleverage, adding to the downward pressure in the
economy.
Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass, the CIO of Hayman Capital Management,
has famously said China's coming economic crash could be three to four
times bigger than the 2008 subprime crisis.
ヘッジファンドマネジャーのKyle Bass、Hayman Capital ManagementのCIOだが、彼はこれからの中国経済の破綻に言及することで有名だ、彼によるとその規模は2008年のサブプライム当時の規模の3,4倍はあるという。
Bass said in August, China's "recklessly built" banking system could come tumbling down in the next global recession.
As long as Beijing refuses to spark a massive credit injection spree,
the global economy will continue to falter -- this could usher in the
next global crisis, one where China's corporate sector implodes, well
that's at least what Bass thinks...
The Next Decade Will Likely Foil Most Financial Plans by Tyler Durden Tuesday, Jan 26, 2021 - 15:20 Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, There are many individuals in the market today who have never been through an actual “bear market.” These events, while painful, are necessary to “reset the table” for outsized market returns in the future. Without such an event, it is highly likely the next decade will foil most financial plans. 現在の市場参加者の多くは本当の「ベアマーケット」を経験していない。こういう事が起きると、痛みを伴うが、将来の大きなリターンを可能にするために必要なちゃぶ台返しとなる。これがないと、多くのファイナンシャルプランは今後10年ひどいことになりそうだ。 No. The March 2020 correction was not a bear market. As noted: 2020年3月の調整はベアマーケットと呼べるようなものではなかった。以前にも指摘したが: A bull market is when the price of the market is trending higher over a long-term period. ブル相場とは長期に渡り市場価格が上昇するものだ。 A bear market is when the previous advance breaks, and prices begin to trend lower. ベア相場とはこれまでの上昇が止まり、市場価格が下落し始めることだ。 The chart belo...
The Fed And The Treasury Have Now Merged by Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2020 - 14:21 Submitted by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research As I've argued, the Fed and the Treasury merged. Powell said this was the case today (from his Q&A): 私はこれまでも申し上げてきたが、すでにFEDと財務省は一体化している。Powell自身がこれに当たると今日話した(彼の Q&Aでのことだ): These programs we are using, under the laws, we do these, as I mentioned in my remarks, with the consent of the Treasury Secretary and the fiscal backing from the congress through the Treasury. And we are doing it to provide credit to households, businesses, state and local governments. As we are directed by the Congress. We are using that fiscal backstop to absorb any losses we have. 我々FEDが今行っている一連のプログラムは、法に基づいており、それを実行している、私が注意喚起したが、 財務長官の同意を得ており、財政に関しては議会の承認も得ている。私どもは家計、ビジネス、連邦地方政府に貸付を行っている。議会の意向のもとに我々は行動している。以下ほどに損失が生じようともそれを財政的に支えている。 Our ability is limited...