China's manufacturing PMI slumped deeper into contraction
on Thursday -- as economic growth in the country fell to its weakest
pace in three decades. The economic slowdown, coupled with massive
corporate leverage, has created a ticking debt time bomb, which could
explode in the next global recession.
The unraveling and coming debt crisis in China
will take a series of corporate debt defaults to spook investors, and
perhaps, the first series of defaults has already started.
The latest causality is Shandong-based steelmaker Xiwang Group Co.,
who defaulted on a $142 million bond last week, has sparked contagion
fear with other companies in the same region, reported Bloomberg.
直近の犠牲者は山東省鉄鋼メーカー Xiwang Group Co.だ、先週$142Mの不当たりを出した、これが当地の他企業にも連鎖するのでは、とブルームバーグは伝える。
Then on Wednesday, Shandong Sanxing Group Co.'s 2021 dollar bond and
China Hongqiao Group Ltd.'s dollar bond due 2023 plummeted to their
lowest levels ever as contagion from Xiwang's default continued to
frighten investors.
水曜に、山東省Sanxing Group Co.の2021年満期ドル建て債権と中国Hongqiao Groupのドル建て2023年満期債権が過去最低レベルの値を付けた、Xiwangの倒産が投資家を驚かせたためだ。
"Xiwang's default onshore has raised concerns that other privately
owned enterprises in Shandong, particularly those from the same
locality, may have been associated with the firm," said Wu Qiong,
executive director at BOC International Holdings Ltd. in Hong Kong, who
spoke with Bloomberg.
Fitch Ratings said the default rate of all Chinese issuers in the
first three quarters of this year was 1.03%. By historical standards,
the default rate is much higher than last year. Most of the firms
skipping out on bond payments were private entities.
The cash crunch comes at a time when overleveraged companies in China
are reeling from a global synchronized slowdown and a controlled
deleveraging period by the government to create a soft bottom in the
economy.
中国の過剰債務企業は世界同時減速と政府の債務削減政策でよろめき現金不足となっている。
"Defaults are likely to continue rising, as many medium- and
small-sized private firms are facing significant refinancing pressures,"
Zhang Shuncheng, associate director of corporate research at Fitch,
said in an interview. "Private companies suffer from many problems in
their own operations, not to mention the impact from the slowing economy
and tight credit environment."
China's corporate sector downfall is overleverage, taken on during
the global synchronized recovery. Now, a synchronized decline, these
firms are starting to deleverage, adding to the downward pressure in the
economy.
Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass, the CIO of Hayman Capital Management,
has famously said China's coming economic crash could be three to four
times bigger than the 2008 subprime crisis.
ヘッジファンドマネジャーのKyle Bass、Hayman Capital ManagementのCIOだが、彼はこれからの中国経済の破綻に言及することで有名だ、彼によるとその規模は2008年のサブプライム当時の規模の3,4倍はあるという。
Bass said in August, China's "recklessly built" banking system could come tumbling down in the next global recession.
As long as Beijing refuses to spark a massive credit injection spree,
the global economy will continue to falter -- this could usher in the
next global crisis, one where China's corporate sector implodes, well
that's at least what Bass thinks...
Class 8 Heavy Truck Orders Crash 68% in January by Tyler Durden Wed, 02/06/2019 - 17:25 Among the latest dismal news about the strength of the US economy, on Tuesday ACT Research released preliminary truck orders for January 2019 which showed that Class 8 truck orders collapsed an astounding 68% for January. The decline is being attributed to a 300,000+ vehicle backlog potentially prompting fleets to halt purchases in the near term. 米国経済に関し最近憂鬱なニュースが多い中で、火曜にACT researchが2019年1月のトラック発注を開示した、1月にClass 8のトラック発注がなんと68%も急落した。この発注減は短期的に300,000台超の潜在在庫を生み出す。 Specifically, in January Class 8 net orders were 15,800 units (14,700 SA; 176,400 SAAR), down 68% YoY and down 26% MoM. Class 5- 7 January net orders were 23,400...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ2週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう "On The Precipice" by Tyler Durden Mon, 06/24/2019 - 14:30 Authored by Kevin Ludolph via Crescat Capital, Dear Investors: The US stock market is retesting its all-time highs at record valuations yet again. We strongly believe it is poised to fail. The problem for bullish late-cycle momentum investors trying to play a breakout to new highs here is the oncoming freight train of deteriorating macro-economic conditions. 米国株式は記録的バリエーションのもとで再度過去最高を試している。私どもはこれが失敗すると強く信じている。景気拡大終盤で強気のモメンタム投資家が新高値を試そうとしていることの問題は、マクロ経済条件の悪化にある。 US corporate profit growth, year-over-year, for the S&P 500 already fully evaporated in the first quarter of 2019 and is heading toward outright decline for the full year based on earnings estimate revision trends. Note the alligator jaws divergence in the chart be...
中国が債務増加していることはたしかです。ただ日本の例を日銀資金循環報告でみると家計、320兆円、民間非金融機関1,785兆円、一般政府 1,284兆円となります。合算すると3,300兆円にもなり、GDPの600%を超えています。 https://www.boj.or.jp/statistics/sj/sjexp.pdf この記事の統計と同じ考え方で数値を採用しているのかどうか気になります。 加えて、この資金循環報告に書かれている海外資産というのが内数なのか外数なのか?私にはよくわかりません。当然海外債務も結構な額になります。一度日銀資金循環 図表1を見てください。詳しい方に教えていただければ。 この中国のたどる道は昔のソ連とかMMTと同様で、自国通貨ならいくら発行しても倒産はしない、というか為政者が痛みに耐えることができず緩和を続けるというものです。でも最終的には限界点に達します。ソ連は建国から崩壊まで70年かかりました。 自由主義経済なら立ち行かなくなった企業は退場してもらうというのが減速なのですが、これがうまくゆかないわけです。 でも日本は中国のはるか先を言っているように見えます。ちょっと検索したのですが、日本の債務に関しては政府債務に言及したものばかりで、この記事のように民間、個人まで総合的に記載しているのは日銀の資金循環統計しか見つけることができませんでした。 China Continues To Pile Debt On Top Of More Debt Written by Jesse Colombo | Feb, 27, 2019 Like many countries, China attempted to rein in its debt growth over the past couple years, but ultimately gave up and is now back to piling on even more debt. Bloomberg reports – 多くの国と同様に、中国もここ2年ほど債務増加を抑えようとしてきた、しかし結局の所諦めてしまい、今や更に債務を積み上げている。ブルームバーグ記事ーー For almost two years,...