China's manufacturing PMI slumped deeper into contraction
on Thursday -- as economic growth in the country fell to its weakest
pace in three decades. The economic slowdown, coupled with massive
corporate leverage, has created a ticking debt time bomb, which could
explode in the next global recession.
The unraveling and coming debt crisis in China
will take a series of corporate debt defaults to spook investors, and
perhaps, the first series of defaults has already started.
The latest causality is Shandong-based steelmaker Xiwang Group Co.,
who defaulted on a $142 million bond last week, has sparked contagion
fear with other companies in the same region, reported Bloomberg.
直近の犠牲者は山東省鉄鋼メーカー Xiwang Group Co.だ、先週$142Mの不当たりを出した、これが当地の他企業にも連鎖するのでは、とブルームバーグは伝える。
Then on Wednesday, Shandong Sanxing Group Co.'s 2021 dollar bond and
China Hongqiao Group Ltd.'s dollar bond due 2023 plummeted to their
lowest levels ever as contagion from Xiwang's default continued to
frighten investors.
水曜に、山東省Sanxing Group Co.の2021年満期ドル建て債権と中国Hongqiao Groupのドル建て2023年満期債権が過去最低レベルの値を付けた、Xiwangの倒産が投資家を驚かせたためだ。
"Xiwang's default onshore has raised concerns that other privately
owned enterprises in Shandong, particularly those from the same
locality, may have been associated with the firm," said Wu Qiong,
executive director at BOC International Holdings Ltd. in Hong Kong, who
spoke with Bloomberg.
Fitch Ratings said the default rate of all Chinese issuers in the
first three quarters of this year was 1.03%. By historical standards,
the default rate is much higher than last year. Most of the firms
skipping out on bond payments were private entities.
The cash crunch comes at a time when overleveraged companies in China
are reeling from a global synchronized slowdown and a controlled
deleveraging period by the government to create a soft bottom in the
economy.
中国の過剰債務企業は世界同時減速と政府の債務削減政策でよろめき現金不足となっている。
"Defaults are likely to continue rising, as many medium- and
small-sized private firms are facing significant refinancing pressures,"
Zhang Shuncheng, associate director of corporate research at Fitch,
said in an interview. "Private companies suffer from many problems in
their own operations, not to mention the impact from the slowing economy
and tight credit environment."
China's corporate sector downfall is overleverage, taken on during
the global synchronized recovery. Now, a synchronized decline, these
firms are starting to deleverage, adding to the downward pressure in the
economy.
Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass, the CIO of Hayman Capital Management,
has famously said China's coming economic crash could be three to four
times bigger than the 2008 subprime crisis.
ヘッジファンドマネジャーのKyle Bass、Hayman Capital ManagementのCIOだが、彼はこれからの中国経済の破綻に言及することで有名だ、彼によるとその規模は2008年のサブプライム当時の規模の3,4倍はあるという。
Bass said in August, China's "recklessly built" banking system could come tumbling down in the next global recession.
As long as Beijing refuses to spark a massive credit injection spree,
the global economy will continue to falter -- this could usher in the
next global crisis, one where China's corporate sector implodes, well
that's at least what Bass thinks...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Albert Edwards: This Was The Final Recessionary Shoe, And It Has Now Fallen by Tyler Durden Thu, 06/27/2019 - 12:45 Exactly three months ago, in late March, the 3 month-10 year spread inverted for the first time since 2007... ちょうど3か月前の3月遅くのことだ、3M10Yスプレッドが2007年以来初めて反転した・・・・ ... an event which sparked near-panic in the market as historically curve inversion has preceded the last 7 recessions. ・・・市場は準混乱状態になった、というのも歴史的に見てイールドカーブ反転が過去7回の景気後退の前兆となっているからだ。 However, while the inversion was certainly a memorable event, the question on everyone's lips is how do risk assets perform once the curve flattens and/or inverts. According to backtests from Goldman, since the mid-1980s, significant stock drawdowns (i.e. market crashes) began only when term slope started steepening after being inverted. ...
Powell Keeps The Bond Bull Kicking Written by Lance Roberts | Mar, 21, 2019 In a widely expected outcome, the Federal Reserve announced no change to the Fed funds rate but did leave open the possibility of a rate hike next year. Also, they committed to stopping “Quantitative Tightening (or Q.T.)” by the end of September. 多くの人が予想したとおり、FEDはFFR変更をしないだけでなく来年も不明とした。さらには、QTを9月末に終えると約束した。 The key language from yesterday’s announcement was: 昨日の発表の重要な部分はこういう具合だ: “ Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market remains strong but that growth of economic activity has slowed from its solid rate in the fourth quarter . Payroll employment was little changed in February, but job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. 「1月のFOMC以来の情報を分析すると、労働市場は強いがQ4に比べると経済成長は鈍化している。2月の雇用環境にほとんど変化がなかった、ここ数ヶ月確実に雇用は増えている、そして失業率は低いままだ。 Recent indicators point to s...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう "On The Precipice" by Tyler Durden Mon, 06/24/2019 - 14:30 Authored by Kevin Ludolph via Crescat Capital, Dear Investors: The US stock market is retesting its all-time highs at record valuations yet again. We strongly believe it is poised to fail. The problem for bullish late-cycle momentum investors trying to play a breakout to new highs here is the oncoming freight train of deteriorating macro-economic conditions. 米国株式は記録的バリエーションのもとで再度過去最高を試している。私どもはこれが失敗すると強く信じている。景気拡大終盤で強気のモメンタム投資家が新高値を試そうとしていることの問題は、マクロ経済条件の悪化にある。 US corporate profit growth, year-over-year, for the S&P 500 already fully evaporated in the first quarter of 2019 and is heading toward outright decline for the full year based on earnings estimate revision trends. Note the alligator jaws divergence in the chart be...