過去最大の現物ゴールド輸送

"The Largest Ever Physical Transfer Of Gold"

by Tyler Durden

Sat, 05/30/2020 - 16:00

Two months ago, when the market was in a state of near-total chaos as a result of a sudden collapse in global supply chains due to the hasty coronavirus lockdowns, one market that saw unprecedented turmoil was that of physical gold.

二ヶ月前の事だ、市場は全くの混乱状態だった、武漢コロナの都市閉鎖で世界的サプライチェーンが急に瓦解したためだ、前代未聞の混乱を引き起こした市場の一つが現物ゴールド市場だ。

As we pointed out in late March, due to a sudden breakdown in physical gold supply as the world's top gold refiners, those located in the southern Swiss town of Ticino, namely Valcambi, Pamp and Argor-Heraeus, suddenly stopped producing gold, the  result was a record divergence in the price of spot gold vs gold futures contracts...

３月遅くにZeroHedgeが指摘したように、現物ゴールド供給が突然途絶えた、世界の主要精錬所がスイスTicinoに集中しているためだ、たとえば、Valcambi, Pamp そしてArgor-Heraeusのような精錬所だ、これらが一斉にゴールド生産を止めた、結果としてスポットゴールドと先物ゴールド価格に記録的な乖離が生じた・・・・


... with gold futures decoupling and trading far above spot prices.

・・・ゴールド先物はスポットから乖離してはるかな高値で売買された。

The resulting record divergence in gold futures vs spot (in some way analogous to what happened to the price of the prompt WTI contract in April, when the May WTI contract traded as low as ($40) as traders were willing to pay buyers to store oil in a world where there was suddenly no space for the physical commodity), unleashed a flood of physical gold into the US as a record scramble by traders rushing to take advantage of this arbitrage opportunity by shipping bullion to New York sparked what Bloomberg said "may be one of the largest ever physical transfers of the metal."

ゴールド先物とスポット価格の間に記録的な乖離が生じ（よく似たことがWTI原油価格でも生じた）、これが米国への記録的な現物ゴールドの流入を引き起こした、New Yorkに金塊を運ぶことで裁定取引をしようというのだ、ブルームバーグに言わせれば「前代未聞の現物ゴールド輸送だったかもしれない」ということだ。



"The flows into New York are unprecedented," Allan Finn, the global commodities director at logistics and security provider Malca-Amit told Bloomberg as his company’s teams in New York have been working 24 hours a day to cope with unprecedented demand for physical gold while navigating lockdowns, flight disruptions and social distancing.

「New Yorkへの流入は前代未聞のものだった」とAllan Finnは言う、彼はロジスティックスを供給するMalca-Amitの世界コモディティディレクターだ、当社は都市閉鎖のなかで一日２４時間働いた、フライトは途切れショーシャルディスタンスが求められるときに。

Since late March, no less than 550 tons of gold - worth $30 billion at today’s price and roughly equal to global mine output in the period - have been added to Comex warehouse stockpiles; hundreds of tons of that was imported. On its own that amount of gold would represent the 11th largest sovereign holding, larger than the ECB's official 504.8 tons of gold.

３月遅く以来で、５５０トンをくだらないゴールドーー価格にして＄３０Bで同じ期間の世界鉱山産出量に匹敵するーーがComexの保管庫に持ち込まれた；何百トンが輸入されたわけだ。この量は各国国家備蓄ランキングで１１番めに相当する、ECBのゴールド保持高５０４．８トンよりも大きい。


Traditionally, while tens of billions of dollars of gold change hands every day in financial markets, a much smaller amount tends to physically move between vaults in trading hubs like London, Zurich and New York. But that has not been the case in the past two months: it all started to change as the Covid-19 crisis affected the supply chain. As Bloomberg explains what we first highlighted two months ago:

伝統的には、毎日の金融市場では数十ビリオンドル相当のゴールドが売買されているが、保管庫間で実際に現物が移動する量は遥かに小さい、主要な保管庫はLondon, Zurich そしてNew Yorkにある。しかしこの二ヶ月は違っていた：武漢コロナがサプライチェーンに影響したためにすべてが変わった。二ヶ月前に最初にこのことを伝えたのはブルームバーグだ：

"when planes were grounded and Swiss refineries closed in late March, traders were worried they wouldn’t be able to get gold to New York in time to deliver against futures contracts. That caused futures, which typically trade in lockstep with the London spot price, to soar to a premium of as much as $70 an ounce.
That created an opportunity for enterprising traders: buy gold somewhere in the world at the spot price, sell futures, and benefit from the difference by shipping the metal to New York."

「飛行機は飛ばずスイスの精錬所は３月末に閉鎖した、トレーダーはNewYorkの先物契約精算でゴールドを入手できないのではと懸念した。こういう状況で先物と同時にロンドンスポット価格も上昇した、プレミアムは＄７０／オンスにもなった。
こういう状況で法人トレーダーには良い投資機会が訪れた：どこか他の地域でゴールドをスポット価格で買い入れ、先物で売る、New Yorkに現物を送ることで裁定利益が得られる。」


The scale of the trade has been revealed in exchange reports, import and export data and comments from some of the leading precious metals shipping and vaulting companies. It all came to a head on Thursday, when traders declared their intent to deliver a record 2.8 million ounces of gold against the June Comex contract, the largest daily delivery notice in exchange data going back to 1994.

取引規模は報告書で明らかになっている、輸出入記録や保管会社の報告だ。木曜にはこれが絶頂に達し、トレーダーは６月精算に対して記録的な２．８Mオンスを提供しようとした、１９９４年以来一日での最大取引だ。








The bulk of this gold came from Switzerland, as Swiss gold exports to the US surged, reaching 111.7 tons in April, the highest on record. Already in March gold imports topped $3 billion, according to the Census Bureau, the highest in at least a decade.


この多量のゴールドはスイス由来のもので、スイスから米国へのゴールド輸出が急騰している、４月には１１１．７トンにもなった、記録上最大のものだ。すでに３月にゴールド輸入は＄３Bになっており、この１０年で最高額だった。


To meet the unprecedented demand for physical gold, refineries as far away as Australia have ramped up output of kilobars - the form typically delivered on the Comex - to ship to New York.

前代未聞の現物ゴールド需要に応じるために、遠くオーストラリアの精錬所までがキロバーを積み上げたーー一般的にComexで取り扱われる携帯だーーこれをNewYorkに発送した。

For Brink’s Managing Director Mark Woolley, the spike in demand to ship gold to New York has been unlike anything he’s seen in 20 years in the market.

Mark Wooleyの取締役 Brinkにとって、New Yorkに発送する需要のスパイクはこの２０年目にしたことがないという。

“The amount of metal that we’ve successfully moved into New York is pretty significant,” he said Thursday on a webinar hosted by the London Bullion Market Association. “It’s probably not far off the total amount of metal that’s been mined in this period.”

「我々がNew Yorkに送り込んだ現物の量はかなりなものだ、」と彼は木曜のウェブ会議で言った、London Bullion Market　Association主催のウエブ会議だ。「同じ期間に世界中の鉱山から採掘される量と同じ程度だった」。


As discussed previously, the CME Group which owns Comex, responded to the unprecedented market dislocation and the sudden lack of physical gold in New York by introducing a new contract allowing the delivery of 400-ounce bars, the type traded in London. Still, “other changes need to be at least considered,” according to LBMA Chairman Paul Fisher.

以前にも議論したが、CMEグループがComexを運用している、前代未聞の市場の歪みが生じ急にNew Yorkで現物ゴールドが不足し、急遽４００オンスバーの精算も許した、ロンドンでは４００オンスバーで取引されている。それでも、「さらなるルール変更が考慮された、」とLBMA会長のPaul Fisherは言う。

Valcambi 400 oz "Good Delivery" Gold bar.

With investor demand for physical off the charts, the enormous movement of gold has been a blessing for logistics companies but also a curse: not only have passenger flights - on which shipments are typically transported - been grounded, but New York City, where many Comex warehouses are located (recall JPM's giant gold vault just happened to be located right next to the NY Fed's), has also been a hotspot for the virus.

投資家の現物ゴールド需要が尋常ではなく、とてつもないゴールド移動で輸送会社には天啓出会ったが同時に不幸でもあった：旅客機のみならず貨物機も飛んでいなかったのだ、しかもNew York Cityに多くのComex 保管庫があるが（思い起こすがよいJPMの巨大ゴールド倉庫はNY FEDのお隣にある、地下でつながっているという噂が絶えない）、ここはウイルスのホットスポットなのだ。

To deal with flows, Loomis International U.K. opened up additional vault capacity. Malca-Amit considered using airports in Boston and Philadelphia, but hasn’t needed to yet, Finn said.

移動量増加に応じてLoomis International U.K.は保管庫の容量を増した。Malca-AmitoはBostonやPhiladelphia空港利用を考えた、しかしまだそれを利用するには至っていないとFinnは言う。

That said, while large volumes and virus-related restrictions at vaults and airports caused some delivery delays, much of the spike in the premium for futures contracts in March - which left banks such as HSBC suffering hundreds of millions in losses - was driven by perception rather than reality, Finn said.

言うならば、大量の輸送とウイルスによる制限で保管庫や空港で限界があり発送遅れを引き起こし、３月に先物契約でスパイクが多発したーーこれがHSBCのような銀行に数百Mドルの損失を引き起こしたーーこれは現実と言うより推測によりもたらせた、とFinnは言う。



"My own personal opinion is that any assessment on the inability to get gold in was ill-informed at the time and was made on assumptions rather than fact," he said.


「私の個人的な考えでは、ゴールド入荷困難は当時の間違った情報に基づくものであり、真実に基づいたものではなかった、」と彼は言う。

Still, the bonanza for precious metals shippers may last a while. As we pointed out last week, large deliveries have seen June Comex futures drop to a discount to spot prices this week, but later dated futures are still at a premium. In fact, according to BofA, in a world in which central banks are flooding markets will trillions in freshly printed fiat and faith in the monetary system is quietly shrinking one day at a time, the one asset the "smart money" wants - as it dumps stocks - is, you guessed it, gold.

それでも、貴金属配送業者にとっての大儲けは暫く続くだろう。先週ZeroHedgeが指摘したように、６月Comex先物の巨額取引はスポット価格を無視したものでこれが減ってはいるが、その先精算の契約はまだ大きなプレミアムがある。実際、BoAに言わせれば、世界中の中央銀行がトリリオンドルの新規紙幣印刷をすすめる予定で、金融システムへの信頼は静かに失せている、ーー株式を売却しながらーー「smart money」が望む一つのアセットは、みなさんも想像がつくだろうが、ゴールドだ。

In fact, a simple correlation between the flood in the global money supply and the price of gold suggests the yellow metal has about $1000 of upside.

実際、世界のマネーサプライとゴールド価格の間にはシンプルな相関がある、これからするとゴールドはさらに＄１０００上昇するはずだ。


Meanwhile, as investor interest in other precious metals picked up, futures for silver and platinum have also traded at premiums to spot: “The guys in New York have done a great job,” said Brian Hayward, head of Loomis International U.K.
"We’re seeing a lot of silver head that way right now" Hayward said in what may be very good news for fans of silver, which recently hit record lows against gold...

そうこうしている間に、投資家は他の貴金属にも興味を持ち始め、シルバーやプラチナの先物もスポット価格に対してプレミアムを持ち始めた：「New Yorkの奴らはいい仕事を下、」とBrian Haywardは言う、彼はLoomis International U.K.の社長だ。「我々は今シルバーの今後に注目している」とHaywardは言う、これはシルバー好きには良いニュースだ、シルバーは最近対ゴールドで記録的安値を付けた・・・・



... a move which may very soon reverse violently.

・・・すぐに大きな反転が見られるかもしれない。