GoldmanはFEDが生み出す深刻な問題に注目する
先週のことだ、財務省が世界を驚かせた、今四半期（会計年度Q3)において、米国はなんと記録的な額＄３Tの国債を売り出すのだ、米国でヘリコプターマネーを実行するために。
This, after selling $807 billion in the first half of the fiscal year, and another $677 billion in the quarter ending Sept 30.
会計年度前半に＄８０７Bを売却した後、さらに９月３０日までに＄６７７Bを売却するという。
And since it is just a matter of time before Congress has to pass yet another fiscal package which will be at least another trillion dollars, and up to $3 trillion if the Democrats get their wish, one can say that Guggenheim's projection of over $5 trillion in debt issuance this calendar year will be wildly conservative.
議会がさらにトリリオンドルの追加財政パッケージを可決するのも時間の問題であり、民主党が望めば＄３Tにもなる、Guggenheimの予想では、控えめに見て今暦年で債務は＄5
Tを超えることになる。
Now here's the thing: as Deutsche Bank recently showed, so far this new debt avalanche was entire monetized exclusively by the Fed, whose debt purchasing operations have been far greater than the net Treasury issuance.
今やこういう状況だ：ドイツ銀行が最近しめしたが、この新規債務連鎖はFEDの現金化で賄われる、FEDの債務買い上げ額は政府の国債発行額よりも大きい。
But this was only the case when the Fed was buying a massive $75 billion in TSYs per day in the late March crash, when Powell dumped a monetary nuclear bomb on the market to stabilize the biggest panic selling an entire generation of traders had ever seen, and nearly doubling the Fed's balance - which is now just shy of $7 trillion, in a few months:
しかしこの前提として３月の市場暴落後FEDが毎日＄７５Bもの巨額国債を買い上げたペースが続くとしたものだ、巨額のパニック売に対抗すべくPowellが金融核爆弾を市場に投下したが、どの年代のトレーダーも目の当たりにした経験のない規模だった、そしてFEDバランスシートを倍増したーーあれからわずか数ヶ月でFEDバランスシートは＄７Tに近づいている：
Since then, however, the Fed's daily and weekly POMO has shrunk substantially, and as discussed earlier, it is down to just $30BN in Treasury purchases per week as of next week, which amounts to around $1.5 trillion per year.
しかしそれ以降FEDの毎日毎週のPOMOは大きく縮小している、以前にもZeroHedgeが取り上げたが、第二週目にはすでに週間国債買取額は＄３０Bにまで減速した、年間換算では＄１．５T／年となる。
There's just one problem: $30BN per week in TSY monetization is nowhere near enough to consume the trillions in Treasury issuance that is about to hit. In fact, all else equal, the Fed will very soon have to find a pretext to aggressively ramp up its treasury purchases.
ここに一つ問題が生じている：毎週＄３０Bもの国債を現金化すると、数トリリオンの国債発行額を超えてしまう。実際、状況が変わらないなら、FEDはすぐに積極的な国債買取の言い訳を見つけ出さねばならない。
As Goldman writes overnight, putting the problem in its proper context, "Central banks have been purchasing sovereign bonds at a rapid pace (Exhibit 1), faster than past QE programs in most cases. These purchases are occurring against a backdrop of a surge in fiscal deficits, which will require enormous amounts of additional sovereign supply to finance them."
昨夜のGoldmanの分析では、この問題を顕在化した、「世界の中央銀行は国債買取ペースを早めており、多くの場合過去のQEプログラムよりも急速だ。これらの買取の背景にあるのは財政赤字の急増だ、この赤字を可能にするためには巨額の追加国債供給が必要となるだろう」。
Which makes sense, of course: after all helicopter money, which is what we have now that MMT (Magic Money Theory) has been shoved down everyone's throat without any debate, only works when there is coordination between the Treasury and the central bank. And while until now Fed purchases have generally offset Treasury issuance, that coordination is about to end. As Goldman puts it, "Central bank buying should absorb a substantial amount of upcoming issuance, though we expect increases in “free float” across most markets, most notably in the US, which adds to the medium-term case for higher yields and steeper curves there."
当然それは理にかなっている：結局の所ヘリコプターマネーであり、今では我々はこの状況をMagic Money Theory MMTと呼ぶ、議論などすること無く皆が口にしている、これが実行できるのは財務省と中央銀行が協調するからだ。今までのところFED債権買取は財務省発行額を相殺しているが、この協調も終わりそうだ。Goldmanが言うには、「中央銀行の買取額は今後の国債発行をすべて吸収せねばならない、一方で我々は多くの市場での「free float」増加を予想している、最も顕著なのは米国だ、中期国債で金利が上がりイールドカーブが急峻化するだろう。」
Next, Goldman estimates this so-called free float, defined as the amount of sovereign debt outstanding less central bank and foreign official holdings, across major DM markets, and shows it in the chart below. Through the end of last year, free float was on a downward trend in Germany and Japan, as ECB and BoJ purchases absorbed the bulk of new supply. In contrast, free float had been trending higher for much of the year in the US and UK.
次にGoldmanが見積もるのはこのいわゆる free floatであり、中央銀行と海外公的機関が保有する以外の部分だ、多くの先進国市場では下のチャートに示すような具合だ。昨年末の時点で、free floatが下落しているのは、ドイツと日本だ、ECBとBoJが新発国債を買い取った。これと対象的なのは、free floatが増えている米国と英国だ。
So with record fiscal deficits and resumption of asset purchases in several markets, where is free float headed this year? In Exhibit 3, Goldman lays out its expectations for total purchase amounts on a net basis along with net supply. It finds the largest increase in free float in the US, as Fed purchases continue to slow; in fact according to Goldman calculations the US public (now that foreign investors have hit the breaks on US TSY purchases), will be on the hook to fund the $1.6 trillion needed to bridge the full amount of US funding needs.
記録的な財政赤字そして資産買取の中で、free floatは今年どれくらいになるだろう？Exhibit 3に、Goldmanの予想を示す、発行額と買取額をあわせて予想している。free floatが最も増えるのは米国で、FEDの買取額が減速し続けている；Goldmanの試算によると、米国民（いまや海外投資家は米国債買取を減らしている）は米国政府資金要求に応じるために、なんと＄１．６Tも負担せざるを得ない。
A similar picture emerges in the Euro area, where supply is also expected outpace ECB purchases, particularly in Italy, Spain and France (absent further increases in ECB purchases). Bizarrely, a similar picture emerges in Japan where even the always ravenous BoJ is expected to absorb a large portion (about ¥25tn) of incoming supply in the upcoming year as Japan is boosting its debt sales by 18.2 trillion yen ($170 billion) to fund a spending package equivalent to a fifth of its annual economic output; but according to Goldman, the scale of supply is likely to exceed even the BOJ's QE purchases.
欧州でもよく似た構図だ、国債発行がECBの買取を上回ると見られる、特にイタリア、スペインそしてフランスが顕著だ（ECBがさらなる買取をしない）。奇妙なことに、日本でも同じ構図となりつつある、貧欲なBoJは今後毎年多額の国債（２５兆円）を買い取ると見られている、財政赤字が増える中で毎年１８．２兆円の赤字国債発行が待ち構えているのだ、GDPの１／５もの予算を組んでいる；しかしGoldmanの見立てでは、国債発行規模がBoJのQE買取を超えそうだという。
It continues: foreign-ownership of New Zealand sovereign debt has fallen to 50% from 70% just five years ago as central bankers in Wellington snap up bonds as part of a quantitative-easing program.
他国でも同様だ：ニュージーランド国債の海外保有比率は五年前の７０％から５０％に下落した、Wellingtonの中央銀行が量的緩和プログラムで国債を買い上げたからだ。
In short, even with central banks unleashing $7.9 trillion in QE so far in 2020 (according to Bank of America calculations) of which the Fed accounts for over $2.8 trillion in debt purchases alone, this won't be enough to monetize the tsunami of debt that is coming to fund the biggest global rescue operation in history, and if investors find that suddenly the bond market has to clear without the only true backstop - the central bank - willing and able to mop up all the supply, a critical precondition for the continuation of "helicopter money", the outcome could be disastrous.
簡単に言うと、２０２０年に世界の中央銀行がQEで＄７．９Tの買い上げをするなかで（BoAの試算による）FEDだけでも＄２．８Tの債務買取を行う、歴史的規模の世界的救済プログラムで今後債務の津波が押し寄せ、これでも現金化は十分ではない、そしてもし投資家が急に、本当の裏付けがない債券市場を精算すべきだと思うようになると、ーー中央銀行が唯一の裏付けでーー今は中央銀行が国債供給すべてを吸収しているが、そうなると「ヘリコプターマネー」継続の前提条件がなくなり、その結末は悲惨なものになるだろう。
Incidentally, we first warned about the urgent need for the Fed to aggressively step up and boost its QE (instead of continuing to taper it by $1 billion week after week as it did again today) on Wednesday when we quoted Curvature Securities' rates strategist and repo expert Scott Skyrm, who calculated that "there are $689 billion net new Treasurys settling during the month of May and $992 billion net new Treasurys settling between now and June 15. Yes, almost one trillion new Treasury securities hitting the market within the next month!"
ちなみに、ZeroHedgeは一番最初に警告を発した、FEDが積極的速やかににQEを拡大べきだと（ただしいまでは毎週＄１Bのペースでテーパリングをしている）水曜にZeroHedgeがCurvature Securitiesの金利ストラテジスト Scott Skyrmの発言を引用した、彼はこういう試算をした「３月には＄６８９Bの新規国債を発行した、そして今日から６月１５日までの間にさらに新規国債を＄９９２B発行しようとしている。そう、来月中に約＄１Tにもなる新規国債を発行する手はずになっているのだ！」
His conclusion: "That means the market needs to come up with about one trillion dollars to pay for those securities over the next month." Which, of course, is a euphemism because we all know who in the market needs to come up with one trillion dollar - the only one who literally prints money: the Federal Reserve.
彼の結論はこうだ：「この状況では、市場は来月中に約＄１Tのドルを準備しなければならない」。たしかにこれは婉曲な表現であり、＄１Tを引き受けるのが誰かを皆が知っているーー紙幣を印刷できる人だけだ：それはFED。
Conveniently, Goldman's argument allows us to recycle our conclusion from two days ago, in which we said that here is the layman's version of what was just said: "the Fed has flooded the system with liquidity... and it is not enough, because the way helicopter money works, is that liquidity supply (the Fed), and liquidity demand (Treasury via debt issuance) go hand in hand, and periods of too much supply, as was the cash with the Fed's massive QE in late March and early April, are promptly followed by periods of dramatic liquidity demand, such as the next month when $1 trillion in liquidity will be drained to fund the US government "money helicopter."
Goldman's own calculations suggest that the shortfall net of the Fed's ongoing QE tapering could be as much as $1.6 trillion.
ちょうど都合の良いことに、GoldmanはZeroHedgeの結論を二日前に繰り返した、ZeroHedgeはもっと平易な言葉で表現した：「FEDは金融システムを流動性で洪水にする・・・そしてそれでも十分ではなく、ヘリコプターマネーを撒き散らすのはFEDの流動性注入であり、流動性需要（財務省の国債発行）が手渡しされる、そして過剰供給状態となった、それはFEDが３月遅くから４月初めに行った巨額QEだが、来月にはさらに＄１Tの流動性を提供して米国政府の「ヘリコプターマネー」を手助けする。Goldman自身の試算では、現在のFED QEテーパリングでは＄１．６T足りない。
As a result, Powell faces a two-fold problem: since the Fed chair has taken negative rates off the table, Powell has no choice but too boost QE again, and unleash another firehose of debt monetizing liquidity in the financial system. However, any such reversal to the Fed's current posture of shrinking QE will be met with howls of rage, especially among what's left of the conservative political establishment. Which means that, just like in March when the Fed used the first pandemic-induced market crash to unleash unlimited QE, the Fed will soon have to go for round 2 and spark a new market crash, one which it then uses as an alibi for the next massive liquidity injection. Failing to do that, watch as the dollar takes off as markets sniff out that another major dollar squeeze is imminent. And since this will accelerate the liquidity crunch, one way or another, the coming $1.6 trillion in Treasury issuance - which has already been generously greenlighted by Congress - will serve as a trigger for the next market shock, one which the Fed will quickly reverse by expanding the already unlimited QE by trillions on very short notice.
結果としてPowellは二重苦に悩まされる：FED議長はマイナス金利の予定はないと宣言した、Powellは再度QEを増強せざるを得ない、金融システムにさらに債務買取で現金を注ぎ込むのだ。しかしながら、現在のQE縮小姿勢を反転すると怒号の嵐だ、特に保守的な政治家重鎮から非難を浴びる。ということは、３月にはパンデミックによる市場暴落でFEDは無制限QEを余儀なくされたように、FEDはすぐに市場暴落第二ラウンドに立ち向かわざるを得ないだろう、既に実績があり次の巨額資金注入をせざるを得ない。これに失敗すると、市場は大きなdollar squeezeが差し迫ることを嗅ぎつける。こうなると liquidity crunchを加速するため、いずれにしろ待ち構える＄１．６Tの債務発行がーーすでに気前の良い議会がこれを決めてしまったーー次の市場ショックのきっかけとなるだろう、FEDはすでに無制限QEを実効するなかで市場暴落を止めに動くだろう、超短期にトリリオンドルを提供するわけだ。
The only question we have is whether this will be the market crash that the Fed uses to unveil it will also buy equity ETfs next, or if Powell will save this final bullet in its ammo for whatever comes next.
我々の疑念はFEDが救済しても市場が暴落が止まらないのではないか、そしてFEDは株式ETFを買うかどうか、言い換えると今後のことは気にせずにPowellがこの弾薬庫の最終兵器を使って市場を救済するかどうかだ。
Finally, it's not just us reaching this conclusion: yesterday - one day after our dire assessment - Bloomberg reached the same conclusion, and in "An $8 Trillion Spree Sets Clock Ticking for Bonds’ Judgment Day" in which it wrote that "investors are mopping up the sales as long as central banks engage in so-called quantitative easing, buying an unlimited amount of debt to counter the ravages of the pandemic. But at the first whiff of a recovery, or a pullback from policy makers, all bets may be off. Throw in the threat of inflation amid a global fiscal splurge exceeding $8 trillion, and bond investors look set for a toxic cocktail of risks in the not-too-distant future."
とうとう、ZeroHedgeではないがこういう結論に達した：昨日のことだーーZeroHedgega悲惨な予想をした翌日のことだーーブルームバーグも同じ結論に達した、「＄８Tにも及ぶ馬鹿騒ぎが債券市場の最後の審判の日を迎える時限爆弾となる」というものだ、彼らによると「世界の中央銀行がいわゆる量的緩和をつづけるなかで投資家は売りで対処する、パンデミックによる荒廃を阻止するために中央銀行は無制限の買いを約束しているのだ。しかし回復が空振りとなると、もしくは政策立案者たちがお手上げになると、すべての賭けは失敗となるかもしれない。世界的な散財が＄８Tを超える中でインフレの脅しが起きる、こうなるとそう遠くない将来に債権投資家はリスクの毒カクテルを見ることになる。」
Well, today we got another pullback when the Fed tapered its weekly QE to just $30BN from $35BN last week, and a record $75 billion per day two months ago.
"Given the massive central bank easing, which includes a lot of bond-buying QE in many places, there will be a lot of demand right now to buy government bonds," said Eric Stein, co-director of global income at Eaton Vance Management, effectively describing what can simply be called "frontrunning" the Fed, a strategy that even BlackRock said is the only one left in this idiotic market.
そう現在、我々は引き戻しを見ている、FEDは毎週のQEをテーパリングしている、先週は＄３５Bだったのがいまや＄３０Bだ、ふた月前には一日あたり＄７５BものQEだった。「中央銀行の巨額緩和では、各国で債権買取QEが行われている、今のところは政府発行国債を買い取る多くの需要がある、」とEric Steinは言う、彼はEaton Vance の共同代表だ、実行的にFEDの「快走状態」とも言える、BlackRockに言わせれば、お馬鹿さん市場で残された参加者はただ一人状態ということだ。
"However, if it was a year or two from now and the economy was picking up and inflation had started to pick up, the story could be different."
「しかしながら、これから１，２年で経済が回復しインフレが起きると、話は全く変わってくる。」
Actually, the economy doesn't even have to be picking up: an unexpected - and unexplained - slowdown in the pace of the Fed's "unlimited QE" purchases would be sufficient to throw the bond market into unprecedented turmoil as all those socialists who pretend that MMT makes sense, realize that the only thing permitting their idiotic "theory" to persist is the Fed's money printer.
実際には、経済が回復しなければならないわけでもない：予想外のことでーー説明はできないがーーFEDの「無制限QE」買取が鈍化すると、債券市場は予想外の停滞となりMMTを好む社会主義者が勢いを増す、彼らの馬鹿げた「理論」を実現する唯一の方法はFEDの紙幣印刷を継続することになる。
Yet while the Fed's QE expansion is just a matter of time, whether catalyzed by another market crash or not, the bigger question is what happens after that?
"Can governments continue to borrow at such record levels? No," said George Boubouras, head of research at hedge fund K2 Asset Management. "Central-bank support is key in the massive bond buying we’ve seen for now. But if they blink then at some point, in the medium term, it will all likely unravel - with unforgiving consequences for some countries."
FEDのQE拡大はもう時間の問題であり、市場暴落があろうがなかろうが何らかのきっかけで生じるだろう、大きな問題はその後に何が起きるかだ？「各国政府はこのような記録的レベルの借金を継続できるだろうか？そんなわけはない」とGeorge Boubourasは言う、彼はK2 Asset Managementヘッジファンドの主任研究員だ。「今のところは中央銀行のサポートで巨額債権買取が実行されている。しかしどこかの時点で彼らが目をパチクリすると、中期的には、全てが明らかになるだろうーー国によってはもう許されないような結末となる。」
Ironically, this also means that an end to the coronavirus crisis is the worst possible thing that could happen to a world that is now habituated to helicopter money and virtually unlimited handouts, which however need a state of perpetual crisis.
皮肉なことに、この状況はコロナウイルス危機の終わりを意味するが、最悪の結末となる、今は世界中がヘリコプターマネーに慣れっこになりほとんど無制限の政府救済を受けている、しかしその後に待ち受けるのは永遠の危機だ。
"Once there is an end to the crisis in sight, they will be less and less willing to provide support and it will fall more on the street to absorb paper," said Mediolanum money manager Charles Diebel, who’s adding bond steepeners in anticipation of a coming inflationary supernova.
「一旦コロナ危機の終息が視野に入ると、政府は救済をどんどん縮小しようとするだろう、その中で国債の受け皿が求められる、」とMediolanum社のマネーマネジャCharles Diebleは言う、彼はさらに将来の中性子星規模のインフレで債権イールドカーブの急峻化を付け加える。
That, incidentally, would be the endgame for the current monetary regime, which is why anyone hoping that officials, policymakers and the establishment in general, will allow the coronavirus crisis to simply fade away, is in for the shock of a lifetime.
ちなみに、それは現在の金融枠組みの終焉を意味するだろう、役人も政治家も権力者もだれもがコロナ危機が消え去るのを望んでいるが、これはもう生涯一度だけしか味わえないようなショックとなる。
