この曲線は決して平坦化することはないだろう：FEDバランスシートはわずかひと月で＄２T増え＄６．１Tになった

This Curve Will Never Flatten Again: Fed Balance Sheet Hits $6.1 Trillion, Up $2 Trillion In 1 Month

by Tyler Durden

Fri, 04/10/2020 - 18:55

Here is an example of a curve that everyone wants to flatten.

これは一例だが、だれもが曲線の平坦化を望んでいる。


And here is an example of a curve that while some  - namely the bears - also wants to see collapse, it will never do so  as that would mean the end of western civilization - which is now entirely contingent on the level of the S&P500 - as we know it. We are talking of course, about the Fed balance sheet which is now well above $6 trillion to make sure stocks and bonds don't crash.

そしてこれも同様の曲線だが、一部のベア派の人たちが崩壊を望んでいる、これが平坦化することは決して無い、もしそうなるならそれは西洋文明の終焉を意味するーーいまやこれがS&P500のレベルを決めているーー我々もよく解っている。今議論しているのはFEDバランスシートであり、今や＄６Tを超えており、このおかげで株式も債権も暴落していない。

With that in mind here is all you need to know about this particular "curve":
Total Fed assets grew by $293Bn to $6.08 trillion as of close, April 8, with the increase primarily driven by $294bn of Treasury securities added to the SOMA portfolio. Through its credit facilities, the Fed also extended $680bn in temporary liquidity to various counterparties, a decline of $61bn from last week.

この「曲線」で把握すべきはこういうことだ：４月８日にFED全資産が＄２９３B増えて＄６．０８Tになった、公開市場勘定SOMAを＄２９４Bの国債買い取りで追加したためだ。債権買取プログラムを通じて、FEDは＄６８０Bの流動性を一時的に注入した、前の週から＄６１B後退しているものの。

In the past month, the Fed balance sheet has increased by $2 trillion, more than all of QE3, when the balance sheet increased by $1.7 trillion over the span of a year. The balance sheet increase has also been faster on a weekly basis than anything observed during the financial crisis, increasing as follows:

先月、FEDバランスシートは＄２T増えた、QE3全額よりも多い、あのときは一年をかけて＄１．７T増やした。週間のバランシスシート増加はあの金融危機のときよりも早い、こういう具合だ：

• April 8: $$272BN
• April 1: $557BN
• March 25: $586BN
• March 17:$356BN

Since the Fed needs to monetize all debt issuance this year, and probably every other year now that the Treasury and Fed have merged and helicopter money has arrived, the pace of the current QE is like nothing ever observed before:

FEDは今年は全力で債権の現金化の必要があるため、そしてたぶんこれからは毎年そうだろう、そしてFEDは財務省と一体化しヘリコプターマネーに到達した、現在のQE速度は前代未聞のものだ：

And since we know what the Fed's POMO schedule is for next week: an increase of $225BN in TSYs and MBS...

我々が知る限りのFED POMO予定はというと、来週も国債短期証券とMBSを＄２２５B買い取る・・



.. we can calculate that by next Friday, April 17, the Fed's assets will rise to at least $6.4 trillion, almost double where the balance sheet was in early September 2019, just before hedge funds needed to be bailed out and the Fed pretended like it was saving the repo market.

・・・来週金曜４月１７日のバランスシート総額も計算できる、FED全資産は＄６．４Tになるだろう、２０１９年９月始めから倍増することになる、ヘッジファンド救済が必要になる直前のころだ、あのときFEDはレポ市場救済のフリをした。

Some more details:

もっと詳細に言うと：

• The highest utilization among the Fed’s credit facilities was the central bank liquidity swap lines, which saw its balances increase by $10bn to $358bn.
  
  FEDの与信供与で最大のものは他国中央銀行とのスワップラインだ、これがバランスシートを＄１０Bから＄３５８B増やした。
  　
• Temporary repo operations with primary dealers fell by $70bn to $193bn. The newly introduced repo facility for foreign central banks had a balance of only $1mm.
  
  一時的にレポ市場操作は＄７０B減って＄１９３Bになった。新たに導入された海外中央銀行とのレポ操作はわずか＄１Mに過ぎない。
  
• Balances in the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) and the Fed discount window were relatively unchanged from last week with $53bn and $43bn, respectively.

MMLFのバランスシートとFED discount windowは先週と変わらずで＄５３Bと＄４３Bだった。

Then, to make sure the balance sheet goes even more exponential soon, on Thursday, the Fed announced a new facility for municipal bonds and details for a number of other programs, including the Main Street Business Lending Program (MSBLP) and the corporate facilities. The two corporate credit facilities will receive a combined $75bn, allowing for a market footprint up to $750bn. Fed purchases will also include "fallen angels" and portions of syndicated loans. In addition, a portion of its ETF purchases in the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility will be allocated to high-yield ETFs.

そして、バランスシート増加はさらに速度を早めている、木曜には、新たに地方債購入も始めた、他にもMSBLPとか企業債権買取プログラムも始めた。企業債権買取の２つのプログラム合計で＄７５Bになる、時価総額＄７５０Bの市場でだ。FED買取プログラムは「堕天使」も含むだろう、さらにはシンジケートローン。更にいうと、企業債権の二次市場、債権ETFも含んでいる、ジャンクボンドETFにも手を出す。

In terms of the other facilities, the MSBLP will receive $75 billion of equity, allowing for Fed purchases of up to $600bn in  loans.

他のプログラムに関しては、MSBLPは＄７５Bの株式を受け取るだろう、FEDに＄６００Bの債権買取を許す。


Meanwhile, the newly established Municipal Liquidity Facility will offer up to $500bn of lending to states and municipalities backed by $35bn in funding from the Treasury.

それと同時に、新たに創設されたMunicipal Liquidity Facilityでは地方政府に＄５００Bまでの資金を提供する、財務省から＄３５Bの支援を受けてのことだ。

Here is a recap of all the Fed's various credit and liquiidty programs:

FEDのすべての各種与信供与、流動性注入プログラムをまとめるとこういう具合だ：

And finally, a comparison of how much the various liquidity programs are being used now vs 2008/9.

そして最後に、各種流動性プログラムを２００８/９と比べるとこういう具合だ。





* * *
TL/DR? Here is the summary:

長い話は聞きたくない？これが要約だ：