Here is an example of a curve that everyone wants to flatten.
これは一例だが、だれもが曲線の平坦化を望んでいる。
And here is an example of a curve that while some - namely the bears
- also wants to see collapse, it will never do so as that would mean
the end of western civilization - which is now entirely contingent on
the level of the S&P500 - as we know it. We are talking of course,
about the Fed balance sheet which is now well above $6 trillion to make
sure stocks and bonds don't crash.
With that in mind here is all you need to know about this particular "curve":
Total Fed assets grew by $293Bn to $6.08 trillion as of close, April
8, with the increase primarily driven by $294bn of Treasury securities
added to the SOMA portfolio. Through its credit facilities, the Fed also
extended $680bn in temporary liquidity to various counterparties, a
decline of $61bn from last week.
In the past month, the Fed balance sheet
has increased by $2 trillion, more than all of QE3, when the balance
sheet increased by $1.7 trillion over the span of a year. The balance
sheet increase has also been faster on a weekly basis than anything
observed during the financial crisis, increasing as follows:
Since the Fed needs to monetize all debt issuance this year, and probably every other year now that the Treasury and Fed have merged and helicopter money has arrived, the pace of the current QE is like nothing ever observed before:
.. we can calculate that by next Friday, April 17, the Fed's assets will rise to at least $6.4 trillion,
almost double where the balance sheet was in early September 2019, just
before hedge funds needed to be bailed out and the Fed pretended like
it was saving the repo market.
The highest utilization among the Fed’s credit facilities was
the central bank liquidity swap lines, which saw its balances increase
by $10bn to $358bn.
Temporary repo operations with primary dealers fell by $70bn to
$193bn. The newly introduced repo facility for foreign central banks had
a balance of only $1mm.
Balances in the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF)
and the Fed discount window were relatively unchanged from last week
with $53bn and $43bn, respectively.
Then, to make sure the balance sheet goes even more exponential soon,
on Thursday, the Fed announced a new facility for municipal bonds and
details for a number of other programs, including the Main Street
Business Lending Program (MSBLP) and the corporate facilities. The two
corporate credit facilities will receive a combined $75bn, allowing for a
market footprint up to $750bn. Fed purchases will also include "fallen
angels" and portions of syndicated loans. In addition, a portion of its
ETF purchases in the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility will be
allocated to high-yield ETFs.
Meanwhile, the newly established Municipal Liquidity Facility will
offer up to $500bn of lending to states and municipalities backed by
$35bn in funding from the Treasury.
最後の二段落だけ訳しておきます。 Stock Euphoria Stunts Gold Adam Hamilton April 19, 2019 3257 Words The great euphoria emanating from these near-record-high stock markets is breathtaking. Traders are again convinced stocks do nothing but rally indefinitely. That everything-is-awesome mindset has stunted gold’s latest upleg, since there’s no perceived need for prudently diversifying stock-heavy portfolios. But that psychology can change fast, as we saw a half-year ago. Gold investment roars back as stocks roll over. The word “euphoria” is widely misunderstood, often confused with “mania”. The latter is when stocks rocket vertically in blowoff tops, and is defined as “an excessively intense enthusiasm, interest, or desire”. The US stock markets certainly aren’t in a mania. At its latest high last Friday, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market s...
