Here is an example of a curve that everyone wants to flatten.
これは一例だが、だれもが曲線の平坦化を望んでいる。
And here is an example of a curve that while some - namely the bears
- also wants to see collapse, it will never do so as that would mean
the end of western civilization - which is now entirely contingent on
the level of the S&P500 - as we know it. We are talking of course,
about the Fed balance sheet which is now well above $6 trillion to make
sure stocks and bonds don't crash.
With that in mind here is all you need to know about this particular "curve":
Total Fed assets grew by $293Bn to $6.08 trillion as of close, April
8, with the increase primarily driven by $294bn of Treasury securities
added to the SOMA portfolio. Through its credit facilities, the Fed also
extended $680bn in temporary liquidity to various counterparties, a
decline of $61bn from last week.
In the past month, the Fed balance sheet
has increased by $2 trillion, more than all of QE3, when the balance
sheet increased by $1.7 trillion over the span of a year. The balance
sheet increase has also been faster on a weekly basis than anything
observed during the financial crisis, increasing as follows:
Since the Fed needs to monetize all debt issuance this year, and probably every other year now that the Treasury and Fed have merged and helicopter money has arrived, the pace of the current QE is like nothing ever observed before:
.. we can calculate that by next Friday, April 17, the Fed's assets will rise to at least $6.4 trillion,
almost double where the balance sheet was in early September 2019, just
before hedge funds needed to be bailed out and the Fed pretended like
it was saving the repo market.
The highest utilization among the Fed’s credit facilities was
the central bank liquidity swap lines, which saw its balances increase
by $10bn to $358bn.
Temporary repo operations with primary dealers fell by $70bn to
$193bn. The newly introduced repo facility for foreign central banks had
a balance of only $1mm.
Balances in the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF)
and the Fed discount window were relatively unchanged from last week
with $53bn and $43bn, respectively.
Then, to make sure the balance sheet goes even more exponential soon,
on Thursday, the Fed announced a new facility for municipal bonds and
details for a number of other programs, including the Main Street
Business Lending Program (MSBLP) and the corporate facilities. The two
corporate credit facilities will receive a combined $75bn, allowing for a
market footprint up to $750bn. Fed purchases will also include "fallen
angels" and portions of syndicated loans. In addition, a portion of its
ETF purchases in the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility will be
allocated to high-yield ETFs.
Meanwhile, the newly established Municipal Liquidity Facility will
offer up to $500bn of lending to states and municipalities backed by
$35bn in funding from the Treasury.
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton February 7, 2020 2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting. While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact. Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September. And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher. When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners. As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity. For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult. ...
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最後の２段落だけ訳を入れておきます。 Silver Miners’ Q3’19 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton November 29, 2019 3726 Words The silver miners are finally enjoying higher prevailing silver prices, a great boon for this sector. Silver surged this past summer after gold’s first new bull-market highs in several years rekindled enthusiasm for precious metals. The long-neglected silver stocks rallied strongly with their metal. Their recently-reported Q3’19 results reveal whether those gains are justified, and how much fundamentals improved on higher silver. Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding pr...
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