Via SchiffGold.com,
Peter Schiff appeared on RT Boom Bust on Tuesday (Sept. 17) to talk about interest rates, gold and the dollar. Peter said the fiat currency system may not survive the next recession.
Peter Schffは９月１７日にRT Boom Bustで金利、ゴールドそしてドルについて語った。Peterが言うには、次の景気後退で管理通貨は生き残れないだろう、と。
The conversation started focusing on the repo operations conducted by the Federal Reserve early in the week, Peter said the financial media and Wall Street are being much too complacent about what’s going on.
Peter noted that the Fed has been artificially suppressing interest rates, particularly since the 2008 financial crisis.
Peterが言うには、FEDは人工的に金利を抑圧してきた、特に２００８年の金融危機以来だ。
And by keeping interest rates artificially low, they have created a
bubble that’s much bigger than the one that popped in 2008. And what
happened this morning is you could see the air coming out of that
bubble, because the market is trying to bring interest rates higher
because we have no real savings in this country. We have enormous debt. Everybody
is levered up to the max — government, the private sector, business,
consumers — because rates have been so low, we’ve borrowed so much money.
The market wants interest rates to be higher but the Fed doesn’t want
that to happen because the road back to normal interest rates is a very
bumpy one because it’s going to take us right through another financial
crisis. So, the Fed is trying to keep interest rates artificially low
and they almost lost control of it this morning. “
In effect, the Fed created about $50 to $70 billion out of thin air to supply the liquidity that the market needed.
実際には、FEDは＄５０Bから＄７０Bの資金を無から生み出し市場の要求に応じて流動性注入を行った。
But what happens next time? What happens if we need $100 billion? What happens if we need a trillion? Because
eventually, we will. Eventually, the Fed has to choose between
destroying the dollar and allowing the market to bring interest rates to
a level that makes sense for an economy with this much debt. Then all
hell breaks loose because we have a much worse financial crisis than the
one we had in ‘o8.”
Peter said as far as the Federal Reserve goes, we are heading toward a
recession, but the cure for what ails us is not cutting interest rates.
He said we need to go through the recession and higher rates are part
of the cleansing process.
But the Federal Reserve has no stomach for doing what’s right, so,
they will cut interest rates becuase that’s what the addicts on Wall
Street demand. So, we’re not going to have a real recovery. We’re just going to try to maintain this bubble.”
Peter reiterated what he’s been saying for months. The Fed will go
back to zero. It might even go negative. It will launch another round of
QE. But it won’t work this time.
They also discussed what Peter has called a very violent move in the bond market. Peter said the real problem is in the long end of the market where 30-year yields are barely above 2%.
Who in their right mind would loan the US government money
for 30 years — you’re not getting your money back for 30 years — at 2%
coupons for the next 30 years, waiting to get repaid?”
Peter touched on recent charges brought against JP Morgan employees
relating to the manipulations of the gold price. He said price
manipulation isn’t the reason the price of gold is relatively low.
It’s not much higher because too many people don’t understand what’s
going on. You know, they have confidence in the Federal Reserve, other
central banks. They believe in this bubble. They are as fooled
now as they were going into the 2008 financial crisis. The difference
was they were bailed out last time. As wrong as all the experts
were on Wall Street and in other countries who couldn’t see an obvious
crisis coming, when they were blindsided, their pals at the Federal
Reserve and other central banks were able to bail them out. It’s
not going to work this time. It doesn’t mean the central banks won’t
try. But as I said, it won’t succeed. They’re going to destroy the
dollar in the process, maybe even bring down the entire fiat monetary
system. And gold is already rising. Gold is telling you on the
ashes of this old system we’re going to resurrect the gold standard.
Because that’s what we had prior to the dollar taking over. We had a
much sounder monetary system then. We had a more viable global economy. Once
we took the money out of the economy, once we substituted real money
for fiat, that was the beginning of these problems and the end of these
problems is going to be returning to honest money, which is gold.”
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう この長文記事をRay Dalioが発表し、ゴールドは＄１４００から＄１４２０へと急騰しました。GLD保持高に変化はないのでたぶん先物ポジションが進んでいます。 Ray Dalio Warns A "New Paradigm" Is Coming: "Buy Gold, Sell Stocks" by Tyler Durden Wed, 07/17/2019 - 14:44 Authored by Ray Dalio via LinkedIn, One of my investment principles is: 私の投資原則はこういうものだ： Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops. 現在のパラダイムを認識し、それがどの程度持続可能かどうか判断する、そしてパラダイムシフトがどのように起きるか、そしてその着地点を思い描く。 Over my roughly 50 years of being a global macro investor, I have observed there to be relatively long of periods (about 10 years) in which the markets and market relationships operate in a certain way (which I call “paradig...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
日本と同じくPOMOになる公算が大きいとは思いますが、どうでしょうね。 米国大統領選挙の勝者と１１月投票日前数ヶ月の株価の動向には９割以上の相関があります。はっきり言えば、公約とか主義主張には無関係です :) 。この時期株価を維持・上昇すると現職政党勝利、株価が下落すると挑戦政党勝利となります。熱心な民主党員活動家である前FED議長イエレンは頻繁に口先介入をしましたが、量的緩和再開まで踏み込めず、４年前の秋に株価が下落し、トランプ勝利となりました。株価と大統領選挙の相関をトランプは熟知しています、４年前には株価が下落するようしきりと口先介入していました。今年は１１月まで株価を維持できるかどうか？どうでしょう。 Mark Your Calendar: Next Week The Fed's Liquidity Drain Begins by Tyler Durden Fri, 01/03/2020 - 14:54 What goes up, must come down, at least in theory. 上昇があれば、その後に下落が伴う、少なくとも理論上ではそうだ。 Ever since the start of October when the Fed launched QE4 - or as some still call it "Not QE" - in response to the Sept repo crisis, figuring out the market has been pretty simple: if the Fed's balance sheet goes up so does the S&P500, and vice versa. １０月にFEDがQE4を始めて以来ーー「Not QE」という人もいるがーー９月のレポ危機に対応したものだが、相場はとても単純になった：FEDがバランス...
