Via SchiffGold.com,
Peter Schiff appeared on RT Boom Bust on Tuesday (Sept. 17) to talk about interest rates, gold and the dollar. Peter said the fiat currency system may not survive the next recession.
Peter Schffは９月１７日にRT Boom Bustで金利、ゴールドそしてドルについて語った。Peterが言うには、次の景気後退で管理通貨は生き残れないだろう、と。
The conversation started focusing on the repo operations conducted by the Federal Reserve early in the week, Peter said the financial media and Wall Street are being much too complacent about what’s going on.
Peter noted that the Fed has been artificially suppressing interest rates, particularly since the 2008 financial crisis.
Peterが言うには、FEDは人工的に金利を抑圧してきた、特に２００８年の金融危機以来だ。
And by keeping interest rates artificially low, they have created a
bubble that’s much bigger than the one that popped in 2008. And what
happened this morning is you could see the air coming out of that
bubble, because the market is trying to bring interest rates higher
because we have no real savings in this country. We have enormous debt. Everybody
is levered up to the max — government, the private sector, business,
consumers — because rates have been so low, we’ve borrowed so much money.
The market wants interest rates to be higher but the Fed doesn’t want
that to happen because the road back to normal interest rates is a very
bumpy one because it’s going to take us right through another financial
crisis. So, the Fed is trying to keep interest rates artificially low
and they almost lost control of it this morning. “
In effect, the Fed created about $50 to $70 billion out of thin air to supply the liquidity that the market needed.
実際には、FEDは＄５０Bから＄７０Bの資金を無から生み出し市場の要求に応じて流動性注入を行った。
But what happens next time? What happens if we need $100 billion? What happens if we need a trillion? Because
eventually, we will. Eventually, the Fed has to choose between
destroying the dollar and allowing the market to bring interest rates to
a level that makes sense for an economy with this much debt. Then all
hell breaks loose because we have a much worse financial crisis than the
one we had in ‘o8.”
Peter said as far as the Federal Reserve goes, we are heading toward a
recession, but the cure for what ails us is not cutting interest rates.
He said we need to go through the recession and higher rates are part
of the cleansing process.
But the Federal Reserve has no stomach for doing what’s right, so,
they will cut interest rates becuase that’s what the addicts on Wall
Street demand. So, we’re not going to have a real recovery. We’re just going to try to maintain this bubble.”
Peter reiterated what he’s been saying for months. The Fed will go
back to zero. It might even go negative. It will launch another round of
QE. But it won’t work this time.
They also discussed what Peter has called a very violent move in the bond market. Peter said the real problem is in the long end of the market where 30-year yields are barely above 2%.
Who in their right mind would loan the US government money
for 30 years — you’re not getting your money back for 30 years — at 2%
coupons for the next 30 years, waiting to get repaid?”
Peter touched on recent charges brought against JP Morgan employees
relating to the manipulations of the gold price. He said price
manipulation isn’t the reason the price of gold is relatively low.
It’s not much higher because too many people don’t understand what’s
going on. You know, they have confidence in the Federal Reserve, other
central banks. They believe in this bubble. They are as fooled
now as they were going into the 2008 financial crisis. The difference
was they were bailed out last time. As wrong as all the experts
were on Wall Street and in other countries who couldn’t see an obvious
crisis coming, when they were blindsided, their pals at the Federal
Reserve and other central banks were able to bail them out. It’s
not going to work this time. It doesn’t mean the central banks won’t
try. But as I said, it won’t succeed. They’re going to destroy the
dollar in the process, maybe even bring down the entire fiat monetary
system. And gold is already rising. Gold is telling you on the
ashes of this old system we’re going to resurrect the gold standard.
Because that’s what we had prior to the dollar taking over. We had a
much sounder monetary system then. We had a more viable global economy. Once
we took the money out of the economy, once we substituted real money
for fiat, that was the beginning of these problems and the end of these
problems is going to be returning to honest money, which is gold.”
この記事よりももっと詳しい分析がこちらにあります。： https://www.adamtownsend.me/china-financial-stability-report/ 元データは毎年開示されるPBOCの英文報告に基づいたものです： http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/130736/index.html ただ、毎年２００ページ超もあり、そう簡単に読みこなせるものではありません。この記事の表のようなわかりやすい形で整理して開示はしていません。この記事の表にはどの年の何ページに書かれたデータであるかが示されています。日本語ネットの記事ではシャードーバンクの規模がよくわからないというものが多いですが、毎年PBOC自らがシャドーバンク規模を自ら認めています。その規模は驚くものです。 この記事に書かれている数値は驚くばかりです。ここまで信用創造をしているのかと驚きます。そりゃ昨年来RRRの低減とかの緩和策を連発してますが、効果が無いのももっともです。これまでの緩和の規模からすると昨年のこの手の緩和はその規模が全く足りないですね。一年以上前にZeroHedgeで中国企業の殆どがミンスキーポイントを超えている、企業の営業利益で債務金利が賄えず利払いのために新たな借金をしている、というのが詳しくデータで示されていましたが、なるほどなと思います。 The Black Swan So Ugly No One Will Talk About It by Phoenix Capita… Fri, 01/11/2019 - 11:55 The biggest black swan facing the financial system is China. 金融システムが直面する最大のブラックスワンは中国だ。 China has been the primary driver of growth for the global economy since the 2008 Crisis...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
