Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,
According to Peter Schiff, the chief global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital, it was a “huge mistake” for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates last month.
Peter Schiffに言わせると、彼はEuro Pacific Capitalの主任グローバルストラテジストだが、先月のFEDによる金利引下げは「大きな間違い」だった。
Schiff says there is no way for the Federal Reserve to stops the United States from going into a recession.
Schiffによれば、もはやFEDは米国景気後退を止めれない。
“They never should have taken rates to zero in 2008 and held them there for 7 years,”the veteran economic analyst told RT. “Zero
interest rates and quantitative easing have created problems in our
economy that will take generations to fix. However, the healing will
never get underway if the Fed goes right back to zero (which is where they are headed).”
According to Schiff, it’s impossible to build a viable economy on the
back of artificially low interest rates. “All it accomplishes it to
push up asset prices, creating bubbles and malinvestments that hurt the
economy. Relying on low interest rates for growth makes it certain that recessions will ensue when monetary policy tightens,” he added.
“the Fed is not causing the recession; they are just unable to delay it any longer.”
「FEDが景気後退のげんいんではない;彼らがもう先延ばしを出来ないということだ。」
Unfortunately, if interest rates are “allowed” to rise organically to
levels that reflect a healthy economy, the interest payments on
government debt will sink the government and that’s exactly why
President Donald Trump is desperate for artificially low interest rates.
Schiff has commented on a coming recession often, saying if it hits
before the 2020 election, Trump will have no chance of winning. Schiff
also said that “We’re Not Borrowing Ourselves Rich, We’re Borrowing Ourselves BROKE!” Meaning he sees a problem in the debt accumulation among the average American household. It
now takes a lot of debt to stay in the middle class, and the political
class isn’t setting a good example by being good with the money they
steal from everyone else. Schiffは何度もこれからの景気後退に言及する、2020年の選挙前に景気後退入りすると、トランプに勝ち目はないだろう。Schillはまたこういう、「我々は借金で豊かになるわけではない、借金で破綻しようとしている!」彼は平均的米国家計債務の問題を指摘している。いまや中産階級が多額の債務を抱えており、他人から奪った金で良い暮らしをするというのは、政治階級としてまともじゃない。
Schiff puts the GDP numbers into perspective, and considering the
debt load the U.S. economy is burdened with, the outlook isn’t all that
rosy. And of course, it’s not just government debt. Household debt is also at record levels and as Schiff says, “We’re not richer because of this economic growth.” SchiffはGDPの見通しにも言及する、債務負荷を考えると米国経済の返済日無で経済見通しはバラ色ではない。そして当然、それは政府債務だけではない。家計債務も記録的レベルに達して入る、とSchiffは言う、「この経済成長でも我々は豊かになっていない」。
“So, we had to add a lot more debt in 2018 to buy not as much growth
as a much smaller amount of debt in 2005. So, the takeaway from that is
this is unsustainable because the growth came at a heavy cost. We had to
increase the amount of debt that we had by a lot more than the
percentage that the economy grew.”
“If your debt is growing faster than your economy, then you’re not
getting richer. You’re getting poorer. You would have been better off
without the debt and without the growth … We’re borrowing ourselves into poverty. We’re not borrowing ourselves rich. We’re borrowing ourselves broke.“-Peter Schiff, via Seeking Alpha
「自らの収入よりも債務増加が多いなら、豊かになれるわけがない。貧しくなるだけだ。成長がなくとも借金がなければミンさんはもっと良い暮らしができるはずだ・・・我々は借金することで貧困化している。借金で豊かになっているわけではない。借金で破滅に向かっている。」Peter Schiff, via Seeking Alpha
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう この長文記事をRay Dalioが発表し、ゴールドは$1400から$1420へと急騰しました。GLD保持高に変化はないのでたぶん先物ポジションが進んでいます。 Ray Dalio Warns A "New Paradigm" Is Coming: "Buy Gold, Sell Stocks" by Tyler Durden Wed, 07/17/2019 - 14:44 Authored by Ray Dalio via LinkedIn, One of my investment principles is: 私の投資原則はこういうものだ: Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops. 現在のパラダイムを認識し、それがどの程度持続可能かどうか判断する、そしてパラダイムシフトがどのように起きるか、そしてその着地点を思い描く。 Over my roughly 50 years of being a global macro investor, I have observed there to be relatively long of periods (about 10 years) in which the markets and market relationships operate in a certain way (which I call “paradig...
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ2週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
How Are Gold And Money Supply Related? by Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2020 - 13:00 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, M2 Money Supply is surging. Will gold follow? M2マネーサプライが急増している。ゴールドはこれを追従するだろうか? Let's investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US. よく言われるM2(米国のマネーサプライ指標)とゴールドの関係について調べてみよう。 "There’s a clear correlation between the annual growth rate in M2 money supply and the price of the yellow metal. " 「M2の年率増加速度とゴールド価格の間には明らかな相関がある。」 Clear Correlation? 明らかな相関? The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let's investigate the above idea in other time frames. このツイートの主張は私が示す最初のチャートが示すものとは異なる。というわけでこのtweetの主張を別の時間フレームで見てみよう。 Gold vs Rate of Change in M2 Money Supply ゴールド vs M2マネーサプライの変化率 If we look at longer time frames, the rate of increase in M2 theory falls flat on its face....