Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,
More than 5,000 years ago on a hilltop located in modern-day Georgia
(the country, not the state), a group of people from the prehistoric
Kura-Araxes civilization gathered their primitive tools and began to
dig.
And that site, known as Sakdrisi-Kachagiani, is the oldest
gold mine in the world. It predates Ancient Egypt and even Mesopotamia. そしてこの場所は、 Sakdrisi-Kachagianiとして知られている、世界最古の金鉱山だ。古代エジプトやメソポタミアよりも古いものだ。
And it shows that, even in prehistoric times, our early ancestors valued gold.
Nearly every great civilization from every corner of the planet since
then has continued to mine for gold– from Greece and Rome to China’s
Zhou dynasty in the first millennium BC, to the Inca and Aztec.
But one very interesting (and completely different) way to invest in gold is to buy shares of mining companies. しかしゴールド投資でとても異なる(全く手法が違うが)のは金鉱山銘柄を買うことだ。
Mining companies generate profit based on the difference between their mining costs and mining revenue.
金鉱会社は産金コストとゴールド市況の差額で利益を生み出す。
So as the price of gold increases, mining company profits tend to increase as well, pushing their stock prices higher.
そのためゴールド価格が上昇すると、鉱山会社の利益はとても上昇する、これが株価を押し上げる。
Among miners, the largest are known as the ‘majors’ or ‘senior
producers’, including companies like Goldcorp, Kinross Gold, Barrick
Gold, Newcrest Mining, Gold Fields, etc.
Majors are typically multi-billion dollar companies that have been
around for decades, similar to how Exxon-Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell
dominate the oil business.
Majors also frequently pay dividends to their shareholders, which
means you could profit from an increase in the gold price while also
generating regular cashflow.
大手は株主に配当を出す、というわけでゴールド価格上昇で皆さんは利益を得る。
And while this might sound great, there’s a slightly different
business model in the mining industry that I think is even more
compelling.
Business is difficult, and mining is no exception. Large mining
companies have thousands of employees and often operate in difficult
jurisdictions. Things go wrong all the time– strikes, major accidents,
political instability, etc. And these can all affect the company’s
performance.
But there’s another category of businesses in the mining industry called royalty or streaming companies. しかし、鉱山産業には別のカテゴリのビジネスがある、権利管理会社もしくはストリーミング会社だ。 Gold streaming/royalty companies are quasi-banks; they
provide capital up-front to mining companies to help build and develop
mines. ゴールドのストリーミング/権利管理会社とは銀行に準ずるような会社だ;事前に鉱山会社に資金を提供し、鉱山開発や鉱山建設を手助けする。
And in exchange they usually receive a royalty on every ounce of gold
(or silver, etc.) that’s produced from that mine, whether in the form
of a cash payment, or a portion of the production itself.
Gold streaming is the most profitable business model in the world. Gold Streamingは世界で最も設けのあるビジネスモデルだ。
That’s because, while the major mining companies have to hire tens of
thousands of people to operate their mines, the streaming/royalty
companies can operate with minimal overhead.
Barrick Gold, one of the largest gold miners in the world, generated
$1.765 billion in Operating Cash Flow in 2018 according to its annual
report. (Operating Cash Flow is a great benchmark to measure the
real-world profitability of a company’s core operating business, without
factoring in accounting gimmicks or capital investments.) Barrick Gold、は世界最大級の金鉱山だ、2018年の営業利益が$1.765Bにもなる。(営業利益は本業での実態利益を判断する最良のベンチマークだ、ここには会計操作とか資本投下の影響を受けない。)
Given that Barrick Gold has more than 20,000 employees, that works out to be around $82,000 in Operating Cash Flow per employee.
Franco Nevada is the world’s largest gold royalty and streaming
company. And according to its annual report, Franco Nevada had $474
million in Operating Cash Flow in 2018.
Except that Franco Nevada only has 34 employees! That means Franco Nevada generated over $13 million in cash flow per employee last year.
Franco Nevada’s business model is more profitable than:
– Apple ($629,000 Operating Cash Flow per employee)
– Google ($463,000 Operating Cash Flow per employee)
– Netflix (NEGATIVE $377,000 Operating Cash Flow per employee)
– Exxon-Mobil ($507,000 Operating Cash Flow per employee)
– JP Morgan ($56,000 Operating Cash Flow per employee)
Now, I’m not recommending that you buy shares of Franco Nevada (or
any other company) right now; Franco Nevada shares sell at nearly 50x
operating cash flow– and that’s pretty expensive in my opinion.
But it’s definitely an industry worth watching and potentially accumulating when valuations become more attractive. しかし、この産業セクターは注目に値するそしてバリュエーションがもう少し魅力的になると買い進めるのもよかろう。
Now, there’s one more segment of the industry that you should know about: ‘junior’ mining companies.
もう一つこの産業で皆さんも知るべきセクターがある:「小型」金鉱企業だ。
Unlike the major producers which operate large mines, juniors are usually tiny companies that explore for new gold deposits.
大手銘柄は大規模鉱山を運用している、一方小型銘柄はふつう新規鉱脈を探査していることが多い。
These are very high risk ventures. It’s entirely
possible that a junior mining company looking for gold burns through all
of its investors’ capital but comes up with nothing.
Then again, from time to time, a ‘junior’ / exploration company with a
great property and solid management will discover a substantial
deposit.
And its stock price can shoot up 10x, 50x, even 100x.
Within mining, this is the place where fortunes can be made (and lost). 鉱山産業では、これは宝の山だ(ただし大損の可能性もある)。
They’re high risk and very speculative. But given how phenomenal the
potential returns are, qualified investors who can bear the risk might
consider allocating a small portion of their capital to speculate in
juniors.
The right investment could literally be a gold mine.
投資がうまくゆけばそれこそ金脈を掴むことになる。
And to continue learning how to safely grow your wealth, I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide. 安全に資産を増やす方法を学ぶなら、私どもの無料Plan B Guide購読を勧める。
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