GDXJ/GDXの比率がサポートレベルに達するとその後ゴールドの強いラリーに

 GDXJはボラティリティが大きく、安値からの上昇が大きいのですが、トレーダーの心理として、安いときに買いづらい。結果としてゴールド上昇の起点となるようです。

GDX/GLDとかGDXJ/GLDも同様の指標になります。

https://x.com/i3_invest/status/1792615665179779289



人気記事

銀鉱株の潜在力は大きい by Zeal

イメージ
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれました。 Big Silver-Stock Potential Adam Hamilton     February 7, 2020     2689 Words The silver miners’ stocks are looking interesting.  While they really lagged silver’s surge on gold’s bull-market-breakout rally last summer, their upleg since remains intact.  Gold stocks’ own upleg peaked in early September.  And silver itself remains wildly undervalued relative to gold, overdue to mean revert dramatically higher.  When that happens during gold’s next upleg, the silver stocks have big potential to soar. Like the global silver market is vastly smaller than gold’s, silver stocks are a proportionally-little fraction of the precious-metals miners.  As a small subset of a usually-ignored contrarian sector, the silver stocks often languish in obscurity.  For decades there wasn’t even a silver-stock index, making sector analysis difficult.  ...
続きを読む

金鉱株ブル相場ブレークアウト！　by Zeal

イメージ
最後の２段落だけ訳を入れておきます。 Gold-Stock Bull Breakout! Adam Hamilton     April 24, 2020     2845 Words The gold miners’ stocks surged to a major bull-market breakout this week!  Powering decisively above their years-old secular resistance is a hugely-important technical event.  It proves this gold-stock bull is alive and well, greatly improves sentiment, and puts this high-flying sector on countless more traders’ radars.  New bull highs fuel self-feeding bullish psychology, as speculators and investors love chasing winners. 　 The gold miners’ stocks are essentially leveraged plays on gold, since its price overwhelmingly drives their earnings and thus ultimately stock prices.  So gold-stock bulls and bears mirror and amplify gold’s own major market cycles.  Today’s secular gold bull began marching in mid-December 2015, birthed from choking despair.  Gold stocks’ ...
続きを読む

金鉱株の春ラリー５　by Zeal

イメージ
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 この記事は先週水曜締め切りで金曜に発行されたものです。 Gold Stocks’ Spring Rally 5 Adam Hamilton     February 28, 2020     3225 Words Before their recent surge on gold regaining $1600, the gold stocks spent much of the past half-year or so largely drifting sideways to lower.  That high consolidation really weighed on sentiment, with greed giving way to apathy.  This sector normally tends to suffer a seasonal slump into mid-March, paving the way for gold stocks’ spring rally.  That’s their second-strongest seasonal surge of the year running into early June. Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally c...
続きを読む

金鉱株は安値放置されている by Zeal

イメージ
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 Gold Stocks Remain Cheap Adam Hamilton     December 20, 2019     2800 Words The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a lackluster few months.  That’s a disheartening contrast to their powerful summer upleg on gold’s bull-market breakout.  While this healthy gold-stock correction likely isn’t over yet, the gold miners remain very undervalued relative to the metal they produce.  That means they still have massive upside left in this secular gold bull.  Sentiment just needs rebalancing before its next upleg. In recent months I’ve written a lot about gold’s correction, which is naturally driving a parallel one in the gold miners’ stocks.  I’ve explained why speculators’ positioning in gold futures, gold’s dominant primary short-term driver, remains bearish with potential selling vastly outweighing likely buying.  I’ve shown how shallow ...
続きを読む

銀鉱株２０１８Q4ファンダメンタルズ by Zeal

イメージ
大切な数段落だけ訳しておきます。 Silver Miners’ Q4’18 Fundamentals Adam Hamilton     March 29, 2019     4073 Words The major silver miners have rallied higher on balance in recent months, enjoying a young upleg.  That’s a welcome change after they suffered a miserable 2018.  Times are tough for silver miners, since silver’s prices have languished near extreme lows relative to gold.  That has forced many traditional silver miners to increasingly diversify into gold.  The major silver miners’ recently-released Q4’18 results illuminate their struggles. Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surr...
続きを読む