The wild ride in job reports continues, this time to the upside with the unemployment unchanged but employment down. 雇用統計は大きく変化し、今回は表向き失業率は変わらずだが、しかしemployment 就業は減った。
Initial Reaction 当初の反応
In January, the BLS reported the population supposedly shrunk by
649,000. Last month the jobs only rose by 20,000. This month the BLS
says job gains were 196,0000. But the BLS also says employment fell by
201,000. The wild fluctuations continue.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was
revised up from +311,000 to +312,000, and the change for February was
revised up from +20,000 to +33,000. With these revisions, employment
gains in January and February combined were 14,000 more than previously
reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 180,000 per month
over the last 3 months.
Baseline Unemployment Rate: Unchanged at 3.8% – Household Survey
U-6 unemployment: Unchanged at 7.3% – Household Survey
Civilian Non-institutional Population: +145,000
Civilian Labor Force: -224,000 – Household Survey
Not in Labor Force: +369,000 – Household Survey
Participation Rate: -0.2 to 63.0– Household Survey
Employment Report Statement 雇用統計報告
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 196,000 in March, and
the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health
care and in professional and technical services.
The above Unemployment Rate Chart is from the BLS. Click on the link for an interactive chart.
上に示した失業率チャートはBLS発表のものだ。リンクをクリックするとインタラクティブ操作ができる。
Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month
非農業雇用の前月比較変化
Hours and Wages
就労時間と給与
Average weekly hours
of all private employees was flat at 34.4 hours. Average weekly hours
of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.3 hours.
Average weekly hours of manufacturers was flat at 40.7 hours.
Average Hourly Earnings of All Nonfarm Workers
rose $0.4 to $27.70. That a 0.14% gain. Average hourly earnings of
private service-providing employees rose $0.05 to $27.47, a gain of
0.18%. Average hourly earnings of manufacturers fell $0.05 to $27.38, a
loss of 0.18%.
Average hourly earnings of Production and Supervisory Workers
rose $0.06 to $23.24. That’s a 0.26% gain. Average hourly earnings of
private service-providing employees rose $0.06 to $22.98, a gain of
0.26%. Average hourly earnings of manufacturers rose $0.02 to $21.93, a
gain of 0.09%
Birth Death Model 出生死亡モデル
Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model
charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I retain
this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the
reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should
anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will comment
further.
Table 15 BLS Alternative Measures of Unemployment 図１５ BLSによる他の失業率指標
Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.
図A-15を見ることで本当の失業率に対するより「better」な数値を見つけることができる。
Notice I said “better” approximation not to be confused with “good” approximation.
注意してほしいが私は「better」というわけで「good」と混同しないように
The official unemployment rate is 3.8%. However, if you start
counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with
part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off
the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out,
etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That
number is in the last row labeled U-6.
Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they
wanted to retire. The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement,
discouraged workers, and kids moving back home because they cannot find a
job.
In
the payroll survey, three part-time jobs count as three jobs. The BLS
attempts to factor this in, but they do not weed out duplicate Social
Security numbers. The potential for double-counting jobs in the payroll
survey is large.
Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey 家計調査 vs. 雇用調査
The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the
headline jobs number, generally released the first Friday of every
month. It is based on employer reporting.
The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures unemployment and many other factors.
家計調査はBLSによる電話聞き取り調査だ。これで失業とか他の多くのことを調べる。
If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and
fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you
drop out of the labor force.
These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate,
artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the
payroll jobs report every month.
Final Thoughts 最終的に思うところ
The past several jobs reports have had wild fluctuations. This month
repeated the story but in different ways. Last month I commented: “The
three month average of jobs is now +186,000 per month but the three
month average in employment is only +47,000 per month.”
過去の雇用統計は大きく変動している。今月も同様だがその原因は大きく異なる。先月私がコメントしたが：「３ヶ月平均で雇用 jobs は＋１８６，０００／月だが、しかし三ヶ月平均の就業数 employment はわずか＋４７，０００／月だ。」
That discrepancy continues. For the last three months, jobs
are up an average of 180,000 per month. Employment is up 54,000 per
month.
Year-over-year employment went from 155,160 to 156,748. That’s an average of 132,000 per month and slowing, if the trend holds.
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
日本と同じくPOMOになる公算が大きいとは思いますが、どうでしょうね。 米国大統領選挙の勝者と１１月投票日前数ヶ月の株価の動向には９割以上の相関があります。はっきり言えば、公約とか主義主張には無関係です :) 。この時期株価を維持・上昇すると現職政党勝利、株価が下落すると挑戦政党勝利となります。熱心な民主党員活動家である前FED議長イエレンは頻繁に口先介入をしましたが、量的緩和再開まで踏み込めず、４年前の秋に株価が下落し、トランプ勝利となりました。株価と大統領選挙の相関をトランプは熟知しています、４年前には株価が下落するようしきりと口先介入していました。今年は１１月まで株価を維持できるかどうか？どうでしょう。 Mark Your Calendar: Next Week The Fed's Liquidity Drain Begins by Tyler Durden Fri, 01/03/2020 - 14:54 What goes up, must come down, at least in theory. 上昇があれば、その後に下落が伴う、少なくとも理論上ではそうだ。 Ever since the start of October when the Fed launched QE4 - or as some still call it "Not QE" - in response to the Sept repo crisis, figuring out the market has been pretty simple: if the Fed's balance sheet goes up so does the S&P500, and vice versa. １０月にFEDがQE4を始めて以来ーー「Not QE」という人もいるがーー９月のレポ危機に対応したものだが、相場はとても単純になった：FEDがバランス...
先週の記事です。最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 Gold’s Peculiar Surge Adam Hamilton February 21, 2020 3246 Words Gold is enjoying an awesome week, surging back above $1600 for the first time in nearly 7 years! That big round psychologically-heavy level is really catching traders’ attention, great improving sentiment. Yet this recent gold surge has proven peculiar. Unlike normal rallies, the buying driving this one largely hasn’t come from gold’s usual primary drivers. The stealth buying behind this surge may impair its staying power. This Tuesday gold surged 1.2% higher to close near $1602. It hadn’t crested $1600 on close since way back in late March 2013 fully 6.9 years ago! Long-time gold traders shudder at the dark spring which followed. Within less than several weeks after that last $1600+ close, gold plummeted 16.2%. Most of that came in ...
What Could Go Wrong? The Fed's Warns On Corporate Debt by Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2019 - 11:44 Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, “So, if the housing market isn’t going to affect the economy, and low interest rates are now a permanent fixture in our society, and there is NO risk in doing anything because we can financially engineer our way out it – then why are all these companies building up departments betting on what could be the biggest crash the world has ever seen? What is more evident is what isn’t being said. Banks aren’t saying “we are gearing up just in case something bad happens.” Quite the contrary – they are gearing up for WHEN it happens. When the turn does come, it will be unlike anything we have ever seen before. The scale of it could be considerable because of the size of some...
