The wild ride in job reports continues, this time to the upside with the unemployment unchanged but employment down. 雇用統計は大きく変化し、今回は表向き失業率は変わらずだが、しかしemployment 就業は減った。
Initial Reaction 当初の反応
In January, the BLS reported the population supposedly shrunk by
649,000. Last month the jobs only rose by 20,000. This month the BLS
says job gains were 196,0000. But the BLS also says employment fell by
201,000. The wild fluctuations continue.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was
revised up from +311,000 to +312,000, and the change for February was
revised up from +20,000 to +33,000. With these revisions, employment
gains in January and February combined were 14,000 more than previously
reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 180,000 per month
over the last 3 months.
Baseline Unemployment Rate: Unchanged at 3.8% – Household Survey
U-6 unemployment: Unchanged at 7.3% – Household Survey
Civilian Non-institutional Population: +145,000
Civilian Labor Force: -224,000 – Household Survey
Not in Labor Force: +369,000 – Household Survey
Participation Rate: -0.2 to 63.0– Household Survey
Employment Report Statement 雇用統計報告
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 196,000 in March, and
the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health
care and in professional and technical services.
The above Unemployment Rate Chart is from the BLS. Click on the link for an interactive chart.
上に示した失業率チャートはBLS発表のものだ。リンクをクリックするとインタラクティブ操作ができる。
Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month
非農業雇用の前月比較変化
Hours and Wages
就労時間と給与
Average weekly hours
of all private employees was flat at 34.4 hours. Average weekly hours
of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.3 hours.
Average weekly hours of manufacturers was flat at 40.7 hours.
Average Hourly Earnings of All Nonfarm Workers
rose $0.4 to $27.70. That a 0.14% gain. Average hourly earnings of
private service-providing employees rose $0.05 to $27.47, a gain of
0.18%. Average hourly earnings of manufacturers fell $0.05 to $27.38, a
loss of 0.18%.
Average hourly earnings of Production and Supervisory Workers
rose $0.06 to $23.24. That’s a 0.26% gain. Average hourly earnings of
private service-providing employees rose $0.06 to $22.98, a gain of
0.26%. Average hourly earnings of manufacturers rose $0.02 to $21.93, a
gain of 0.09%
Birth Death Model 出生死亡モデル
Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model
charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I retain
this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the
reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should
anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will comment
further.
Table 15 BLS Alternative Measures of Unemployment 図１５ BLSによる他の失業率指標
Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.
図A-15を見ることで本当の失業率に対するより「better」な数値を見つけることができる。
Notice I said “better” approximation not to be confused with “good” approximation.
注意してほしいが私は「better」というわけで「good」と混同しないように
The official unemployment rate is 3.8%. However, if you start
counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with
part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off
the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out,
etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That
number is in the last row labeled U-6.
Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they
wanted to retire. The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement,
discouraged workers, and kids moving back home because they cannot find a
job.
In
the payroll survey, three part-time jobs count as three jobs. The BLS
attempts to factor this in, but they do not weed out duplicate Social
Security numbers. The potential for double-counting jobs in the payroll
survey is large.
Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey 家計調査 vs. 雇用調査
The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the
headline jobs number, generally released the first Friday of every
month. It is based on employer reporting.
The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures unemployment and many other factors.
家計調査はBLSによる電話聞き取り調査だ。これで失業とか他の多くのことを調べる。
If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and
fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you
drop out of the labor force.
These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate,
artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the
payroll jobs report every month.
Final Thoughts 最終的に思うところ
The past several jobs reports have had wild fluctuations. This month
repeated the story but in different ways. Last month I commented: “The
three month average of jobs is now +186,000 per month but the three
month average in employment is only +47,000 per month.”
過去の雇用統計は大きく変動している。今月も同様だがその原因は大きく異なる。先月私がコメントしたが：「３ヶ月平均で雇用 jobs は＋１８６，０００／月だが、しかし三ヶ月平均の就業数 employment はわずか＋４７，０００／月だ。」
That discrepancy continues. For the last three months, jobs
are up an average of 180,000 per month. Employment is up 54,000 per
month.
Year-over-year employment went from 155,160 to 156,748. That’s an average of 132,000 per month and slowing, if the trend holds.
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Productivity: What It Is & Why It Matters Written by Michael Lebowitz | Jan, 16, 2019 The Kansas City Federal Reserve posted the Twitter comment and graph below highlighting a very important economic theme. Although productivity is a basic building block of economic analysis, it is one that few economists and even fewer investors seem to appreciate. Kansas 市FEDがツイッターにコメントを投稿した、そのグラフを下に示す、とても重要な経済テーマだ。経済分析においては生産性というのはとても重要な要素だが、ほとんどのエコノミストがこの件に言及しない、投資家は更にこのことを忘れ去っている。 The Kansas City Fed’s tweet is 100% correct in that wages are stagnating in large part due to low productivity growth. As the second chart shows, it is not only wages. The post financial-crisis economic expansion, despite being within months of a record for duration, is by far the weakest since WWII. Kansas City FEDのツイートは１００％正しい、給与が停滞している原因の主要因は生産性成長が低いからだ。二番目のチャートを見ても判るように、成長鈍化は給与だけではない。あの金融危機後の経済拡大は、第二次世界大戦後で記録的長期の拡大期間だが、とても弱い拡大だ。 Productivity growth over the last 350+ years is ...
