The wild ride in job reports continues, this time to the upside with the unemployment unchanged but employment down. 雇用統計は大きく変化し、今回は表向き失業率は変わらずだが、しかしemployment 就業は減った。
Initial Reaction 当初の反応
In January, the BLS reported the population supposedly shrunk by
649,000. Last month the jobs only rose by 20,000. This month the BLS
says job gains were 196,0000. But the BLS also says employment fell by
201,000. The wild fluctuations continue.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was
revised up from +311,000 to +312,000, and the change for February was
revised up from +20,000 to +33,000. With these revisions, employment
gains in January and February combined were 14,000 more than previously
reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 180,000 per month
over the last 3 months.
Baseline Unemployment Rate: Unchanged at 3.8% – Household Survey
U-6 unemployment: Unchanged at 7.3% – Household Survey
Civilian Non-institutional Population: +145,000
Civilian Labor Force: -224,000 – Household Survey
Not in Labor Force: +369,000 – Household Survey
Participation Rate: -0.2 to 63.0– Household Survey
Employment Report Statement 雇用統計報告
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 196,000 in March, and
the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health
care and in professional and technical services.
The above Unemployment Rate Chart is from the BLS. Click on the link for an interactive chart.
上に示した失業率チャートはBLS発表のものだ。リンクをクリックするとインタラクティブ操作ができる。
Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month
非農業雇用の前月比較変化
Hours and Wages
就労時間と給与
Average weekly hours
of all private employees was flat at 34.4 hours. Average weekly hours
of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.3 hours.
Average weekly hours of manufacturers was flat at 40.7 hours.
Average Hourly Earnings of All Nonfarm Workers
rose $0.4 to $27.70. That a 0.14% gain. Average hourly earnings of
private service-providing employees rose $0.05 to $27.47, a gain of
0.18%. Average hourly earnings of manufacturers fell $0.05 to $27.38, a
loss of 0.18%.
Average hourly earnings of Production and Supervisory Workers
rose $0.06 to $23.24. That’s a 0.26% gain. Average hourly earnings of
private service-providing employees rose $0.06 to $22.98, a gain of
0.26%. Average hourly earnings of manufacturers rose $0.02 to $21.93, a
gain of 0.09%
Birth Death Model 出生死亡モデル
Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model
charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I retain
this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the
reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should
anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will comment
further.
Table 15 BLS Alternative Measures of Unemployment 図１５ BLSによる他の失業率指標
Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.
図A-15を見ることで本当の失業率に対するより「better」な数値を見つけることができる。
Notice I said “better” approximation not to be confused with “good” approximation.
注意してほしいが私は「better」というわけで「good」と混同しないように
The official unemployment rate is 3.8%. However, if you start
counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with
part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off
the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out,
etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That
number is in the last row labeled U-6.
Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they
wanted to retire. The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement,
discouraged workers, and kids moving back home because they cannot find a
job.
In
the payroll survey, three part-time jobs count as three jobs. The BLS
attempts to factor this in, but they do not weed out duplicate Social
Security numbers. The potential for double-counting jobs in the payroll
survey is large.
Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey 家計調査 vs. 雇用調査
The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the
headline jobs number, generally released the first Friday of every
month. It is based on employer reporting.
The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures unemployment and many other factors.
家計調査はBLSによる電話聞き取り調査だ。これで失業とか他の多くのことを調べる。
If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and
fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you
drop out of the labor force.
These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate,
artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the
payroll jobs report every month.
Final Thoughts 最終的に思うところ
The past several jobs reports have had wild fluctuations. This month
repeated the story but in different ways. Last month I commented: “The
three month average of jobs is now +186,000 per month but the three
month average in employment is only +47,000 per month.”
過去の雇用統計は大きく変動している。今月も同様だがその原因は大きく異なる。先月私がコメントしたが：「３ヶ月平均で雇用 jobs は＋１８６，０００／月だが、しかし三ヶ月平均の就業数 employment はわずか＋４７，０００／月だ。」
That discrepancy continues. For the last three months, jobs
are up an average of 180,000 per month. Employment is up 54,000 per
month.
Year-over-year employment went from 155,160 to 156,748. That’s an average of 132,000 per month and slowing, if the trend holds.
The Next Decade Will Likely Foil Most Financial Plans by Tyler Durden Tuesday, Jan 26, 2021 - 15:20 Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, There are many individuals in the market today who have never been through an actual “bear market.” These events, while painful, are necessary to “reset the table” for outsized market returns in the future. Without such an event, it is highly likely the next decade will foil most financial plans. 現在の市場参加者の多くは本当の「ベアマーケット」を経験していない。こういう事が起きると、痛みを伴うが、将来の大きなリターンを可能にするために必要なちゃぶ台返しとなる。これがないと、多くのファイナンシャルプランは今後１０年ひどいことになりそうだ。 No. The March 2020 correction was not a bear market. As noted: ２０２０年３月の調整はベアマーケットと呼べるようなものではなかった。以前にも指摘したが： A bull market is when the price of the market is trending higher over a long-term period. ブル相場とは長期に渡り市場価格が上昇するものだ。 A bear market is when the previous advance breaks, and prices begin to trend lower. ベア相場とはこれまでの上昇が止まり、市場価格が下落し始めることだ。 The chart belo...
The Fed And The Treasury Have Now Merged by Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2020 - 14:21 Submitted by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research As I've argued, the Fed and the Treasury merged. Powell said this was the case today (from his Q&A): 私はこれまでも申し上げてきたが、すでにFEDと財務省は一体化している。Powell自身がこれに当たると今日話した（彼の Q&Aでのことだ）： These programs we are using, under the laws, we do these, as I mentioned in my remarks, with the consent of the Treasury Secretary and the fiscal backing from the congress through the Treasury. And we are doing it to provide credit to households, businesses, state and local governments. As we are directed by the Congress. We are using that fiscal backstop to absorb any losses we have. 我々FEDが今行っている一連のプログラムは、法に基づいており、それを実行している、私が注意喚起したが、 財務長官の同意を得ており、財政に関しては議会の承認も得ている。私どもは家計、ビジネス、連邦地方政府に貸付を行っている。議会の意向のもとに我々は行動している。以下ほどに損失が生じようともそれを財政的に支えている。 Our ability is limited...
