Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,
I just recently spent some time on the Lance Roberts Podcast discussing why the next recession and market downturn will be nothing like the last. Here is the full interview:
私 Mike Shedlock は最近Lance Roverts Podcastで議論した、次の景気後退と市場の下落は前回とは全く違うものになるだろうと言う議論だ。ここで全インタビューを聴取できる:
If you search for "next recession" numerous ideas pop up. Many believe there will not be a recession soon.
Conditions are radically different than in 2007 and 2000. 2007とか2000とは経済環境が全く異なる。
The Fed re-blew a housing price bubble but the number of jobs tied to
construction, sales, CDOs, agents and even the impact on banks is a
shell of what happened then.
Unemployment will not rise much like last time. Instead, expect to
see hours cut.Also expect for many of those currently working two jobs
to lose one of them.
Japan is in a state of zombification and Europe is on the verge.
日本経済はすでにゾンビ化状態であり、欧州もそう変化しつつある。
The US may not and likely will not go through Japanese-like extremes
just yet. However, the demography setup is poor, the student debt
problem is a huge overhang, boomers unprepared for retirement is a huge
overhang, and pensions are a huge overhang.
The Next Decade Will Likely Foil Most Financial Plans by Tyler Durden Tuesday, Jan 26, 2021 - 15:20 Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, There are many individuals in the market today who have never been through an actual “bear market.” These events, while painful, are necessary to “reset the table” for outsized market returns in the future. Without such an event, it is highly likely the next decade will foil most financial plans. 現在の市場参加者の多くは本当の「ベアマーケット」を経験していない。こういう事が起きると、痛みを伴うが、将来の大きなリターンを可能にするために必要なちゃぶ台返しとなる。これがないと、多くのファイナンシャルプランは今後10年ひどいことになりそうだ。 No. The March 2020 correction was not a bear market. As noted: 2020年3月の調整はベアマーケットと呼べるようなものではなかった。以前にも指摘したが: A bull market is when the price of the market is trending higher over a long-term period. ブル相場とは長期に渡り市場価格が上昇するものだ。 A bear market is when the previous advance breaks, and prices begin to trend lower. ベア相場とはこれまでの上昇が止まり、市場価格が下落し始めることだ。 The chart belo...
The Fed And The Treasury Have Now Merged by Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2020 - 14:21 Submitted by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research As I've argued, the Fed and the Treasury merged. Powell said this was the case today (from his Q&A): 私はこれまでも申し上げてきたが、すでにFEDと財務省は一体化している。Powell自身がこれに当たると今日話した(彼の Q&Aでのことだ): These programs we are using, under the laws, we do these, as I mentioned in my remarks, with the consent of the Treasury Secretary and the fiscal backing from the congress through the Treasury. And we are doing it to provide credit to households, businesses, state and local governments. As we are directed by the Congress. We are using that fiscal backstop to absorb any losses we have. 我々FEDが今行っている一連のプログラムは、法に基づいており、それを実行している、私が注意喚起したが、 財務長官の同意を得ており、財政に関しては議会の承認も得ている。私どもは家計、ビジネス、連邦地方政府に貸付を行っている。議会の意向のもとに我々は行動している。以下ほどに損失が生じようともそれを財政的に支えている。 Our ability is limited...