Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,
I just recently spent some time on the Lance Roberts Podcast discussing why the next recession and market downturn will be nothing like the last. Here is the full interview:
私 Mike Shedlock は最近Lance Roverts Podcastで議論した、次の景気後退と市場の下落は前回とは全く違うものになるだろうと言う議論だ。ここで全インタビューを聴取できる：
If you search for "next recession" numerous ideas pop up. Many believe there will not be a recession soon.
Conditions are radically different than in 2007 and 2000. ２００７とか２０００とは経済環境が全く異なる。
The Fed re-blew a housing price bubble but the number of jobs tied to
construction, sales, CDOs, agents and even the impact on banks is a
shell of what happened then.
Unemployment will not rise much like last time. Instead, expect to
see hours cut.Also expect for many of those currently working two jobs
to lose one of them.
Japan is in a state of zombification and Europe is on the verge.
日本経済はすでにゾンビ化状態であり、欧州もそう変化しつつある。
The US may not and likely will not go through Japanese-like extremes
just yet. However, the demography setup is poor, the student debt
problem is a huge overhang, boomers unprepared for retirement is a huge
overhang, and pensions are a huge overhang.
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最後の２段落だけ訳を入れておきます。 Gold-Stock Bull Breakout! Adam Hamilton April 24, 2020 2845 Words The gold miners’ stocks surged to a major bull-market breakout this week! Powering decisively above their years-old secular resistance is a hugely-important technical event. It proves this gold-stock bull is alive and well, greatly improves sentiment, and puts this high-flying sector on countless more traders’ radars. New bull highs fuel self-feeding bullish psychology, as speculators and investors love chasing winners. The gold miners’ stocks are essentially leveraged plays on gold, since its price overwhelmingly drives their earnings and thus ultimately stock prices. So gold-stock bulls and bears mirror and amplify gold’s own major market cycles. Today’s secular gold bull began marching in mid-December 2015, birthed from choking despair. Gold stocks’ ...
最後の２段落だけ訳をいれておきます。 Gold Stocks Remain Cheap Adam Hamilton December 20, 2019 2800 Words The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a lackluster few months. That’s a disheartening contrast to their powerful summer upleg on gold’s bull-market breakout. While this healthy gold-stock correction likely isn’t over yet, the gold miners remain very undervalued relative to the metal they produce. That means they still have massive upside left in this secular gold bull. Sentiment just needs rebalancing before its next upleg. In recent months I’ve written a lot about gold’s correction, which is naturally driving a parallel one in the gold miners’ stocks. I’ve explained why speculators’ positioning in gold futures, gold’s dominant primary short-term driver, remains bearish with potential selling vastly outweighing likely buying. I’ve shown how shallow ...
