今週相場は上がるか？それはFEDバランスシートを見るが良い

Is The Market Up This Week? Just Ask The Fed's Balance Sheet








Something remarkable happened when the Fed announced "NOT QE": starting that week, every time the Fed's balance sheet rose, so did the S&P. And the one week when the Fed's balance sheet shrank, the market dropped. Yes, correlation may not be causation, but if a pattern repeats 9 weeks out of 9, then it becomes feedback loop which the math PhDs plug into their various algo/quant models and... voila:

FEDが「NOT QE」を宣言して以来特筆すべきことが起きた：その週からのことだが、GEDがバランスシートを増やすたびにS＆Pも上昇した。そしてFEDがバランスシートをし減らした一週だけ、市場は下落した。たしかに、相関があるからといって因果関係を示すものではない、しかしこのパターンが９週のうち９回生じるなら、数学博士は各種アルゴリズムにフィードバックループを組み込む・・・・はい出来上がり：


Which begs the question: yesterday we reported that as part of its year-end repo bailout operation, the Fed plans on injecting over $500 billion of liquidity in the next 4 weeks, a process which will take the Fed's balance sheet sharply higher by roughly $500 billion through mid-January, in the process pushing the balance sheet to a new all time high above $4.5 trillion. We wonder: just what will happen to stocks?

ここで疑問が湧く：昨日ZeroHedgeが報告したが、年末のレポ市場救済操作でFEDは４週で＄５００Bの流動性注入を行う計画だ、これが実行されると１月半ばにはFEDバランスシートは＄５００B増える、こうなるとバランスシートは過去最高の＄４．５Tとなる。皆が注目している：株式はどうなるだろうか？









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