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Crest社の面白い分析です。各種マクロ指数タイミングに関して解説しています。 Exposing The Three Flawed Narratives Driving Today's Late-Cycle Euphoria by Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2019 - 10:15 Crescat Capital's Quarterly Investor Letter Q1 2019, Authored by Kevin Ludolph, The year-to-date rally in global risk assets after the Fed flip appears to us to be a last gasp of speculative mania for the current economic cycle. FEDが姿勢反転して以来の年初来の世界的リスク資産のラリーは驚くほどの投機的行為であり、現在の景気サイクルで最後のものだ。 In our view, three  flawed narratives  are driving late-cycle euphoria in financial markets today: 私どもの見立てでは、現在の金融市場のeuphoriaがこの景気サイクル終盤で起きるのは３つの誤解に基づいている： “Central banks can always prevent a downturn in financial markets and the business cycle”; 「中央銀行がいつでも金融市場やビジネスサイクルの下落を阻止できる」； “US stocks valuations remain attractive”; and 「米国株式のバリュエーションはまだ魅力...

最後の二段落だけ訳しておきます。 Stock Euphoria Stunts Gold Adam Hamilton     April 19, 2019     3257 Words The great euphoria emanating from these near-record-high stock markets is breathtaking.  Traders are again convinced stocks do nothing but rally indefinitely.  That everything-is-awesome mindset has stunted gold’s latest upleg, since there’s no perceived need for prudently diversifying stock-heavy portfolios.  But that psychology can change fast, as we saw a half-year ago.  Gold investment roars back as stocks roll over. The word “euphoria” is widely misunderstood, often confused with “mania”.  The latter is when stocks rocket vertically in blowoff tops, and is defined as “an excessively intense enthusiasm, interest, or desire”.  The US stock markets certainly aren’t in a mania.  At its latest high last Friday, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market s...