億万長者VCが警告する、FED刺激策が「デフレスーパーサイクル」を引き起こすリスクがある、実経済を押しつぶすかも

Billionaire VC Warns Fed Stimulus Risks Triggering "Deflationary Supercycle" That Could Crush Main Street

by Tyler Durden

Tue, 05/12/2020 - 15:45

Appearing for the third time in 6 weeks, Social Capital founder and former Facebook exec Chamath Palihapitiya joined the hosts of CNBC's "Squawk Box" for an interview Tuesday morning where he warned that the Fed's coronavirus response will create serious long-term problems for the American economy.

この６週で３度もメディアに出てきた、Social Capitalの創始者で元Facebook取締役のChamath Palihapitiyaだ、彼が火曜朝のCNBC「Squawk Box」に出演した、FEDのコロナ対応が米国経済に深刻な長期的問題を引き起こすだろうと、彼は警告する。

Palihapitiya has participated in a series of widely-discussed interviews on CNBC in recent weeks, including here and here.

Palihapitiyaはここ数週で、一連のCNBCの長時間インタービューに出ている。

Chamath started the interview by going all-in on the Fed and the White House's response to the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus, skewering programs like 'PPP' for funneling money to companies that didn't really need it and once again bashing the Fed for once again pumping up asset prices while placing Main Street at immense risk.

Chamth はインタビューの最初にFEDが all-in状態にあること、そしてホワイトハウスの武漢コロナ対応から議論を始めた、「PPP」のような一連の官民協調で企業への資金提供が本当は不必要で、またもやFEDを突きあげて株価をお仕上げている、一方で実経済はリスクだらけだ。

"There should be no doubt now that we've completely divorced the economy from stock and bond markets..." Palihapitiya warned.

「今は疑うこと無く、株式や債券市場と実経済は完全に乖離している・・・」とPalihapitiyaは警告する。

The end result of this trend, he added, will be a "deflationary supercycle" as the Fed's abuses come back to haunt the American economy and the dollar.

このトレンドの結末は、彼によれば、「デフレ的スーパーサイクル」を引き起こすだろう、FEDが米国経済やドル市場に過剰介入しているためだ。

"All this money going in to prop of companies - what you are going to start or accelerate is a really bad deflationary super cycle."

「企業を支えているこれらのすべての資金がーーこれが最悪のデフレ的スーパーサイクルを加速し始めている。」

With the Fed's balance sheet well on its way to $12 trillion by year's end, levels that were deemed to be unfathomable just months ago, Palihapitiya reiterated that the rebound in equity markets has done almost nothing to put food on people's plates, or assuage the anxieties of small business owners, as an NFIB report released earlier would suggest.

年末にはFED全資産は＄１２Tにもなろうとしており、数ヶ月前には想像もつかないレベルだ、Palihapitiyaは繰り返し主張するが、株式市場のリバウンドは国民の糊口の足しにもならない、また中小企業オーナーの不安を取り去るものでもない、これはNFIB報告書が示唆するものだ。

Exactly how might this "deflationary spiral" happen? The former Facebook executive explains that by doling out money to massive corporations that have spent the last 10 years borrowing money to buy back stock, while paying workers more money in unemployment benefits than they earned in wages, creates a perverse system of incentives that, once the crisis has ended, could create the same economic dynamic that played out in Japan during the 1990s.

正確に言うとこの「デフレスパイラル」はどのように生じるのだろうか？元Facebook取締役である彼が言うには、この１０年借金で自社株買いをしてきた多くの企業に資金提供し、一方で失業者には稼いでいた以上の手当を与える、正道を外れたインセンティブを与えている、この危機が終わったときには、１９９０年代の日本と同様の経済動向を引き起こすだろう。


With the flood of cheap money, the financially shell-shocked consumers will save more, preventing the consumer-driven economy from generating the roaring growth needed to compensate for the crisis, while leaving the US in a kind of limbo as growth slows, prices fall, savings rise (despite rates remaining extraordinarily low, or negative) and productivity lapses while employment never really recovers.
The best example of this is, of course, Japan. We'd note that Zero Hedge has been warning about the "Japanification" of the US economy and monetary policy for some time).

安価なマネーを洪水のように撒き散らし、消費者は貝のように消費を抑え貯蓄をするだろう、危機に立ち向かうためには怒涛のような消費者主導の経済成長が必要なのにこれを阻害する、一方で米国は成長がますます鈍化する、物価は下がり、貯蓄は増える（金利は極端に低く、マイナスになるかもしれないなかで）、そして雇用が回復しない中で生産性は失われる。この典型例が日本だ。米国経済と金融政策が米国の「日本化」を引き起こすとZeroHedgeは何度も警告してきた。

Moving on, Chamath also joined Donald Trump in expressing sympathy for Elon Musk in his battle with California, a campaign that has turned public opinion decidedly against Tesla. Chamath, who has long praised Tesla to the consternation of the $TSLAQ community, urged Alameda County to "sit down" with Musk and Tesla and work out a mutually acceptable compromise.

更に議論を進め、Chamathはトランプに賛同して、カリフォルニアで格闘しているElon Muskに哀悼の意を表す、大衆の意向はTeslaに向かい風だ。長らくChamathはTeslaの目をみはる発展を称賛してきた、Alameda CountyがMuskやTeslaと折り合いを付けるよう応援してきた。

Finally, Palihapitiya joined PTJ in praising bitcoin, arguing that the pioneering cryptocurrency is the only legitimate asset that has "decoupled" from the rest of the market, and that by it's very nature, the declining trust in the traditional financial system could be a huge boon for bitcoin.

最終的には、PalihapitiyaはPaul Tudor Jonesに賛同してビットコインを称賛する、暗号資産の先駆けとなるビットコインこそ正当な資産であり他の市場とは「decoupled」していると言う、伝統的な金融システムへの信頼が後退するとビットコインの大ブームを引き起こすだろうと言う。

Indeed, the inherently deflationary BTC will perform even better in real terms as the value of the dollar weakens, one of several important market dynamics explored in greater depth by PTJ - one of the most successful traders of his generation - here.

たしかに、ビットコインはそれ自身デフレ的な性質を持ち、ドルが弱まる中で良いパフォーマンスを示すだろう、PTJに言わせれば、爆発的成長を果たす市場の一つとなるーー彼の世代での最も成功するトレードの一つだというーーこちらを参照のこと。