Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,
We are all used to the bullion banks covering their shorts on Comex
by waiting until the speculators are over-bullish and vulnerable to
mark-downs that trigger their stops. Algorithmic traders go from long to
short in a heartbeat as well, and they dump contracts into a falling
market, speeding up the decline. We should say at this juncture that the
Managed Money speculators are short-term, attracted by futures
leverage, and their gold position is often part of a wider risk strategy
deployed by hedge funds. They do not intend to stand for delivery. The
wider investment world taking strategic portfolio decisions does not
often get involved with gold, so the Comex gold contract has been a
secular play.
The table below shows a typical set-up, in this case July 2016. The
Managed Money category (296,106 — net 259,129 contracts) is close to
record long. Open interest was 633,000 contracts and the gold price was
at $1360, having run up from $1040 the previous December.
In the non-speculative category, the bullion banks (Swaps) had 56% of
the shorts and the Producer/Merchants 44%. Mark-to-market value of the
Swaps net short position was $25bn. Of the speculative longs, the
managed money category (hedge funds) held 69%, and at 296,106 long
contracts it was almost a record. There was a high level of bullishness;
easy pickings for the bullion banks, who by the following December
drove the price down to $1120, reducing their net shorts to under 50,000
contracts.
It was a game that evolved out of Comex futures being used simply to
offset long bullion positions at the LBMA. Over time, bullion bank
traders increased their trading position limits, as opposed to their
pure hedging activity, making easy money jobbing the other side of
Managed Money trades.
Now look at the current situation, with the gold price at decade highs ($1775) and open interest at 561,628 (30 June).
では、現在の状況を見てみよう、ゴールド価格は十年ぶりの高値（＄１７７５）になり、open interestは６月３０日時点で５６１，６２８枚だ。
In the non-speculator category, the Swaps are more short than they
were in July 2016 despite open interest being 71,372 contracts lower.
The mark-to-market value is record net short at $36.6 billion. What has
happened is the Producer/Merchants have cut their positions, presumably
deciding that hedging mine output is less important in the current
inflationary environment. Consequently, the bullion banks are bearing
71% of the short exposure.
The speculator category makes this more interesting still. At 138,555
net long, hedge funds are only 25,000 contracts longer than average,
and compared with their bullishness in July 2016 have hardly got going.
It is the other categories, Other Reported and Non-reported have taken
56% of the long side, and they are not behaving like skittish hedge
funds at all. These include family offices, the ultra-wealthy and
foreigners through Globex who are standing for delivery as a means of
getting their hands on physical bullion —171 tonnes from the June
contract alone.
Bullion banks are between a rock and a hard place. For years they’ve
been playing the hedge funds as an angler hooks and plays a fish. That
game has ceased and there is no easy way for them to get level. For the
moment they are trying to put a lid on the price, but the cost has been
rising open interest, and therefore rising mark-to-market positions.
The August active contract runs off the board at the end of this
month and bullion banks are likely to be forced into large delivery
volumes again. Furthermore, the exchange for delivery arbitrage facility
between Comex and the LBMA is broken, allowing Comex premiums to London
spot to go unchallenged.
It is increasingly possible the gold contract is evolving into deep crisis, and that force majeure might have to be declared if, as seems increasingly inevitable, a wider banking crisis ensues.
Amazonで買物をしてContrarianJを応援しよう Silver Outperforming Gold 2 Adam Hamilton July 26, 2019 3232 Words Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive. ここ２週シルバーは急騰した、ゴールドを遥かに凌ぐものだ。これは注目すべきことだ、もう何年もシルバーはひどいものだった。この極端に嫌われた金属が大きく心理を買えている、とうとうゴールド上昇を増幅するに至った。シルバーは対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されているだけでなく、投資家は積極的に買い進んでいる。シルバーの潜在上昇力は巨大なものだ。 Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly ...
多量のオピオイドを米国に送り込み、米国で深刻な麻薬中毒問題を引き起こしています。現代版「阿片戦争」です。あのトヨタ初の女性取締役もオピオイド中毒で逮捕解任されましたよね。 US Is Dependent On China For Almost 80% Of Its Medicine by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/31/2019 - 12:55 Experts are warning that the U.S. has become way too reliant on China for all our medicine , our pain killers, antibiotics, vitamins, aspirin and many cancer treatment medicine. 専門家はこう警告する、米国はすべての医薬品、痛み止め、抗生物質、ビタミン、アスピリン、各種抗がん剤で、中国依存度が高すぎる。 Fox Business reports that according to FDA estimates at least 80 percent of active ingredients found in all of America’s medicine come from abroad, primarily from China . And it’s not just the ingredients, China wants to become the world’s dominant generic drug maker. So far Chinese companies are making generic for everything from high blood pressure to chemotherapy drugs. 90 percent of America’s prescriptions a...
結局、中国は隣国日本で２０年前に起きたことを学んでいなかったということでしょう、というかどの国もどの政府も十分成熟するまでは「わかっちゃいるけどやめられない」ということでしょうね、きっと。 Spooked By Apple? Wait ‘Til China’s Bubble Bursts Written by Jesse Colombo | Jan, 3, 2019 Apple stock plunged nearly 10% on Thursday after the company cut its revenue forecast due to slowing iPhone sales in China. Apple’s woes dragged U.S. stock indices lower by more than 2% as fears of a more extensive China-driven slowdown spread. アップルの株価は火曜に約１０％下落した、同社が中国でのiPhone売上原則を予想したためだ。アップルの弱さが米国株式指数を２％以上押し下げた、中国主導でさらなる原則が広がるのではという懸念からだ。 From the New York Times : ニューヨークタイムスによると： For years, no matter what was happening elsewhere, global companies bet billions upon billions of dollars that China’s consumers would keep spending money. 長年、他国で何が起きようとも多国籍企業は中国消費は巨額を維持することに賭けてきた。 Now, just when the world economy could use their financial firepower, they are no longer so quick to open their wallets. 今や、世界経済が金融弾薬を用いてももはや彼らの財布を緩めることはできない。 The latest sign of a slowdown in...
米国はよく理解してませんが、日本の場合では量的緩和で日銀が国債買い上げした資金は日銀当座預金にそのままです、市中には流れていません。でもNHKのニュース等では「ジャブジャブ」という表現をアナウンサーが使い、さらに丁寧に水道の蛇口からお金が吐き出される画像まで示してくれます。これって心理効果が大きいですよね。量的緩和とは何かを７時のニュースや新聞でこれ以上丁寧に解説するのはそう簡単ではありません。一般の人も株式をやっている人も「イメージ」で捉える以上はそう簡単にできません。多くの人は量的緩和とはなにか、を理解していないと私は想像しています。 ただし、国債を買い上げるので長期金利が低下し住宅ローン金利等が下がったのは確実な効果です。一方で長短金利差が少なくなると銀行のビジネスモデルが成り立たなくなりますが。 This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen" by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/19/2019 - 18:55 After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018. 一年間のテーパリング後、FEDバランスシートがとうとう市場の注目をあびることになった、２０１８年の最後の３ヶ月だ。 By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS...
